Monthly Archives: July 2015

Armchair GM, Breaking News, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Prospects, Rob Cooke, Rumors

NHL expansion bids are in. How does it affect the Oilers?

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It was made official by the NHL that there was two official bids for expansion franchises filed yesterday. All paperwork along with a 10 million dollar deposit had to be received by the head office at the end of business yesterday. According to the official NHL press release this morning there was significant interest with 16 applications being given out be league. However, only two potential ownership groups managed to meet all the criteria in the short time allotted. This is the official release from the league this morning.

Is it just me or does this come across as kind of arrogant and condescending? Imagine that, people can’t pull magical arena deals out of their hats. Two weeks in my opinion was a farce to begin with. Had the time frame been doubled or more I think we would have seen more bids submitted. Seattle seemed to depend on an arena deal that couldn’t materialize in time so it didn’t happen. In case you didn’t read the press release or are still unsure after doing so, the two bids were submitted by Quebecor and Bill Foley. So that obviously means the return of the Quebec Nordiques and an as of yet to be named to team in Las Vegas. Both cities are well on their way to having their arenas built with Las Vegas already starting a season ticket drive to gauge interest. That drive was going exceptionally well with well over 10000 seats sold the last time that I had checked.

That is all well and good to know that there will be two more NHL franchises in the league hopefully for the 2017-18 season, but what does it mean for the Oilers? Well for starters it will require another league realignment. I can’t see the NHL adding Quebec to the eastern conference without a team coming to the west in addition to the Las Vegas franchise. It doesn’t make sense to have a 32-team league divided unevenly. Jonathon Willis wrote an interesting piece yesterday regarding realignment and he suggested 8 divisions with 4 teams in each. Here is a link to the full article. For our purposes here is what his potential realignment would look like.

WESTERN TEAMS
NORTH PACIFIC: Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, and Winnipeg                                CANADA EAST: Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, and Quebec City
SOUTH CENTRAL: Arizona, St. Louis, Colorado, and Dallas
SOUTH PACIFIC: Los Angeles, San Jose, Anaheim, and Las Vegas

EASTERN TEAMS 
NORTH CENTRAL: Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota, and Columbus
NORTH ATLANTIC: Buffalo, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Washington
UNITED STATES EAST: Boston, New Jersey, Islanders, and Rangers
SOUTH ATLANTIC: Tampa Bay, Carolina, Florida, and Nashville

While I really like the idea I don’t see the league moving to this format. Instead opting to go with four 8 team divisions. That would likely mean that the Las Vegas team would join the Pacific and Columbus would join the Central in the west. Quebec would possible join the Atlantic but that would mean that another team would be forced to move to the Metro division with Boston being the most likely in my opinion. So if that is the realignment that the league chooses it does add two more teams to the west, evening out the conferences and making the west just a little more competitive with the addition of the Blue Jackets.

The other way that the Edmonton franchise will be affected by the expansion process is through the inevitable expansion draft. Teams will only be allowed to protect a certain amount of players on their roster at the time and the rest will be up for the taking by either Quebec or Las Vegas. The NHL hasn’t set the rules for how many players at each position they will be able to protect so for my purposes I will go off of the rules that were used in the 2000 expansion.

There were two possibilities for how many players a team can protect. The first version allows a team to protect 1 goalie, 5 defensemen, and 9 forwards. The second would see a team select 2 goalies, 3 defenders, and 7 forwards. Under the requirements set out in the 2000 expansion draft there was no eligibility requirements for a team opting to protect only one masked man. If a team chose to protect two however, then said team had to ensure that each protected goalie had player in 10 games the previous season, with 31 minutes of ice time being needed to e considered a game played. If ten games were not played in the previous season the other eligibility criteria is 25 games over the two previous seasons. Next rule is that every team has to have one defenseman unprotected that played a minimum of 40 games the previous year or 70 total over the past two seasons. There is also the same eligibility requirements for the forwards with at least two needing to meet the same criteria as the defenseman.

If you area asking yourself why the game limits set on players that are being unprotected it is to ensure that any expansion franchise will have the opportunity to receive players that will have some semblance of NHL experience. Now I am not saying that Edmonton is going to leave Jordan Eberle unprotected just because he will meet the 40-game eligibility requirement. That is just ridiculous and all of Edmonton management would likely be strung up outside the new arena if that ever happens. People need to be rational, calm, and logical when trying to come up with a list of players to protect on the team. There was a discussion of the writers last night about this same thing and we all agreed that analytics will play a huge role for the two teams that will potentially be joining the league.

To me selecting the players that Edmonton will protect shouldn’t be overly difficult because we have our clear-cut core players and those that aren’t. If you are not a core player at this point you will likely be expendable in the upcoming expansion draft. I realize that the draft won’t happen for at least a year but more likely two, with it occurring sometime between the Stanley Cup finals and the 2017 entry draft, but for our purposes here today we will base our picks off of the current roster as it sits. So let’s get right to it and expel some reasonably useful NHL players and a whole lot of players that are not.

First off, if the draft were to happen today I would have a very hard time not selecting option A. That would be 1 goalie, 5 defenders, and 9 forwards, There is just too much talent on the team to opt for a second goalie, there by giving up two defenders and two forwards. If I had to make the selections for the team my list would look like this:

Goaltender(1): Cam Talbot

Defensemen(5): Andrej Sekera, Mark Fayne, Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse, and Griffin Reinhart.

Forwards(9): Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Benoit Pouliot, Nail Yakupov, Leon Draisaitl, Anton Lander, Bogdan Yakimov, Greg Chase, and Matt Hendricks.

From my list you can tell the players that I value above all else. Thankfully there is no minimum amount of games played to allow for a player to be protected. Also with the  players left there are more than a couple of options for filling the league requirements of games played. On defense with Nikita Nikitin and Andrew Ference we have two players that played in excess of forty games last year. No one said they had to play well, just that they had to play. In the forwards group we have Teddy Purcell that has been a consistent player over his career and would be a good addition to a new franchise. Along with the Teddy Bear we have Lauri Korpikoski, Mark Letestu, and Rob Klinkhammer also unprotected that would fit under one of the two eligibility criteria.

We must not forget that just because certain players are unprotected doesn’t necessarily mean that the player will even be selected. I doubt there is much of a market for Nikitin and his outrageous salary. There would likely be about the same amount of interest or even a little less in an aging Andrew Ference with two years left and a full no-movement clause to boot. The forwards would garner more interest as all the players left available are either actual NHL players or are a reasonable facsimile thereof. Of the nine forwards that I chose to protect the only two that I can see a case being made for someone else on are Bogdan Yakimov and Greg Chase. The others are all key players on the roster, including Matt Hendricks. Hendy might not be a star player, a la Taylor Hall or Connor McDavid,but he plays an integral part of this team and his leadership skills can’t be discounted. Players like Draisaitl, Nurse, and Reinhart are big parts of the future of this franchise and they deserve to be treated as such. Some may say that they would rather keep Davidson or Schultz but to me Reinhart will be the better player in the long-term.

Anyone have any issues with the players I have selected? Have a completely different list? Let me know in the comments if you agree or disagree. Hit me up on Twitter too, @cooke_rob and we can talk some puck. Thanks for reading and remember to check out the as always excellent Beer League Heroes T-shirt Shop for all your T-shirt needs. The shirt shop is here, if you are interested in checking out the great designs that are currently offered by the website. Stay tuned for the launch of the official Cooke’s Shirt Shack in the very near future as well! It will be the bee’s knees, the cat’s pajamas, like the coolest of the cool! Like , fer sure! Thanks for coming out Beer Leaguers!!!

AMENDMENT: I apologize to all the readers but I was mistaken in the rules the expansion draft. I missed the rules regarding younger players. First and second year professional players will not require protection as they are exempt from being selected. By this rule it would take McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Reinhart, Yakimov, and Chase would be exempt from being selected.

With these stipulations I would obviously change my selections. No need to protect players that are exempt from being selected in the first place. Again I apologize for my error and appreciate those that pointed it out to me. Below are my new selections based on this new information.

Goalies(2): Cam Talbot and Ben Scrivens

Defense(3): Andrej Sekera, Mark Fayne, and Oscar Klefbom

Forwards(7): Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, Benoit Pouliot, Matt Hendricks, Anton Lander

I only chose to protect Scrivens because I didn’t feel there was 5 defensemen or 9 forwards that I would want to protect. I would have opted to keep Brossoit instead of Scrivens but he doesn’t meet the games played eligibility to be protected. Thanks again for reading and again I apologize for my error.  

Cheers

Rob

Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rob Cooke, Rumors

WELCOME TO THE MAD HOUSE, an Oilers blog

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Well here we sit on Sunday morning and it is a real slow news day for the Edmonton Oilers. So slow in fact that I have decided to debut my new weekly series. Welcome to the madhouse will be a point-form style blog that will not only cover Oilers news but really anything that I feel like commenting at the time. So fair warning people, if you want to read an article solely about hockey this one may not be for you from time to time. Today you are in luck though because I have a lot going on inside the old hat rack that I want to touch on. So let’s get right to it, enter if you dare.

  • The NHL has agreed to try three-on-three overtime format this season and I have seen a lot of good things being written about it. I mean come on, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that by going to this new format we will some really fast hockey. Teams with a lot of speed up front will be looking to push the pace will the bigger stronger teams struggle to keep them to the outside. I for one am stoked to see the Oilers playing three-on-three as we have a bevy of speedy players up front and potentially on the back-end as well. Can you imagine Hall and McDavid flying down the ice with that much room to move? Like I said, the majority of feedback that I have seen is positive but one goalie has remarked that he thinks that it will be harder on the net-minders. Cory Schneider had this to say when discussing the new format. Not exactly a ringing endorsement but a scathing review either. Check out his comments at the end of the post about goalie skill levels and making nets larger to bring out more skill. Interesting hearing that coming from a goalie.

 

  • All Edmonton Oilers fans know there is a great big elephant in the room this morning. That beloved pachyderm is present courtesy of the second buy-out window granted to the franchise for filing the Schultz arbitration. I wrote a piece late last week discussing the merits and pitfalls of using said buy-out and I am still on record as being in favour of using it. If the space can be freed to sign Cody Franson or Christian Ehrhoff for 3 years I say do it. There is a lot of space coming available next summer with both Ben Scrivens and Teddy Purcell coming off the books next year so I say do it! Fortune favours the bold! Or at least that is what we are told, we have never seen the bold we were so falsely promised… The only key RFA’s next summer are Oscar Klefbom and Justin Schultz with Schultz being moved if Franson signs. We have no need of Schultz if we have a better version of the player here.

 

  • What would the addition of a player like Franson do to players like Nurse? Adding Franson pushes everyone but possibly Sekera and Fayne down the depth chart. The addition of a player of that caliber would mean that both Griffin Reinhart and Darnell Nurse start the season in Bakersfield and that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Nurse has a grand total of six games as pro and Reinhart, while having a full season of AHL experience, still has only eight NHL games on his resume. Just because they are very highly touted prospects doesn’t mean they will be gifted roster spots like in years past. New management seems more than capable of separating the wheat from the chaff so to speak. I think that regardless of who the players are the seven or eight best will be on the opening night roster. Not just the most expensive…

 

  • Talking about Darnell Nurse, just how crazy good is this kid? He has the ability, size, mean streak, and speed to be the real number one defender that we so desperately need. Of course that is the best case scenario and even if it does come to fruition it won’t be for a few years yet as Darnell progresses as a player. At this point I think the worst case is a second pairing player but I just see too much skill and too many natural physical gifts to not be at least a top pairing guy.

 

  • Monday, besides being the end of the Oilers 48 hour buy-out window, is the deadline for official submitting an expansion bid. Originally it was thought that we would see bids coming from Las Vegas, Quebec City, and Seattle. It came to light Friday that the possible ownership group in Seattle would not be submitting a bid after arena issues were not able to be worked out in time. There is talk of second bid coming from the Seattle area but it is uncertain whether the league will be keen to be outside of the greater Seattle or if they will refuse the $500 million franchise fee that is expected from each new team. It does however seem all but a certainty that Quebecor media will be handing their bid in along with the $10 million deposit. And with Las Vegas proceeding with the building of a fantastic new arena complex it is a virtual guarantee that the prospective owners have all their forms filled out and a giant suitcase full of money to wheel into NHL headquarters tomorrow morning.

 

  • I was on Twitter last night and our very own Beer League Hero brought up the polarizing discussion of the Big E. Of course I mean Eric Lindros. One of the most physically dominant skilled players I have ever had the opportunity to watch. BLH asked if, and I am paraphrasing of course, we will ever see a player like Lindros again? It is a great topic for discussion as there was no one like him ever before he joined the league and hasn’t been anyone like him since. He has made many errors along the way. From his refusal to join the Nordiques to his off-ice issues that have been well documented. I am not going to condone his actions as there is no reason for what took place to ever happen but I am thinking that those items need to be separated when discussing him as a hockey player. If we are talking about what he is like as a person then by all means bring on the character attacks and prior misdeeds but in a discussion about him as a player shouldn’t revolve around what he did in a night club 20 plus years ago. Just my opinion.

 

  • Will the summer of insanity ever end for the Boston Bruins and general manager Don Sweeney? He traded one of the top up and coming defenseman in the entire league in Dougie Hamilton for next to nothing in return. He had a better offer, although marginally, from former Bruins GM Peter Chiarelli but had to add in an extra player on top in an attempt to stick it to our Chia pet. Then he moved power forward Milan Lucic to the Los Angeles Kings for promising young goalie Martin Jones and the 13th overall pick in the 2015 draft. The pick was used to select Jakub Zboril, a defender for the Saint Johns Sea Dogs of the QMJHL. I know nothing about this young fella so I won’t make any judgement as far as whether he is a good pick at that point of the draft. I do understand Boston adding defense at the draft though. Likely an attempt to find a replacement for Hamilton but that isn’t coming any time soon. Beleskey was an okay add for the team and was even kept below 4 million per which is well below what he was asking. Overall I don’t know that either of the two trades they made were any good. The Hamilton trade will take years to decide on but it is a clear win for Calgary right now. The Lucic trade was one I liked but personally I think the guy is over-rated to begin with, The point of all of this is that Boston subtracted one of the best defensemen they had and didn’t bring anyone that can be considered close to a replacement. Sweeney is on record as saying that his team may not be doing adding yet. With the expectation being a playoff berth next year they damn sure better not be done. This team is worse than they were prior to the NHL draft that is for sure.

 

  • The final thing that I want to touch on is the fabulous t-shirts that Beer League Heroes is currently selling through our store. There are some fantastic designs and let’s not forget the always stylish Beer League Heroes shirt! Get yours before  they are gone!!! Besides being a great deal they are also great at helping meet women! The conversations these beauties will inspire will be the stuff of legend! No but seriously they won’t help your game at all. If you had none before the shirt like me you still won’t have any after you wear it. But at least you will have a really snappy new shirt!

I have decided that I will end this weekly blog series every week with a question to pose to all you fantastic readers and I will post the best answers in the following weeks edition. Today my question to all of you is what should the entrance song be for the Edmonton Oilers this season? My answer is in the video below. Thanks for reading, leave me a comment and follow me on twitter, @cooke_rob. Have a great night!

 

Cheers

Rob

 

Corey Mitchell, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Prospects

Prospect Profile: It’s Showtime

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Welcome to Prospect Profile, my eight part series looking at the players in the Oilers system. Over the course of the summer, I will present a new group of players each week, leading into the prospect camp this September. For the purpose of these features, my definition for a player to be deemed a prospect is less than 100 NHL games, and no older than 25 years old.

Part One will focus on five players that I feel have the most legitimate shot of making the opening night roster this season, although there may be one or two players exempt from this grouping, based on upcoming Profiles.

Connor McDavid
The Oilers have had 1st Overall picks before. The excitement generated in 2010 when Taylor Hall became the very first Number 1 in Oilers history is something I remember very well. But this year was something different altogether. Over the last two seasons, everyone in the hockey world has been privy to the knowledge that Connor McDavid was going to be a superstar at the level of Sidney Crosby. But as the 2014-15 Oilers season began, the team and the fans were at a level of optimism that they hadn’t been at for some time. While everyone agreed it would be nice to somehow end up with that 1st pick, no one expected it. Fast forward to the NHL Draft Lottery, and the hockey gods smiled upon Oil Country that day.

Connor McDavid is now property of the Oilers, having officially signed his ELC during development camp. Already, the atmosphere in the city is electric. McDavid is hands down playing, and excelling in Edmonton this season. He could, and should, finally be the catalyst to break the Oilers out of the perennial funk they’ve found themselves in.

While he didn’t finish his OHL career with either a Memorial Cup or even an OHL Championship, McDavid’s accomplishments last year alone are astounding. The highlight being finally helping Canada reclaim World Junior supremacy, McDavid also walked away with a bevy of individual awards, most notably his second CHL Scholastic Player of the Year, which he also won in 2014, and the CHL Player of the Year award.

As good as Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has been, and continues to be, Connor McDavid is the new top center for the Oilers. Already on social media, fans are dreaming up fantasy line ups, discussing who to play with McDavid. He’s changed the entire dynamic of the team without playing a game, and given a long suffering fan base something they need and deserve; hope.

Darnell Nurse
Picked 7th in 2013, Darnell Nurse looks to be poised to crack the Oilers roster heading into this season. Nurse had an absolutely tremendous year with Sault Ste. Marie of the OHL, proving that sending him back to junior after making the Oilers out of camp was a very wise decision. Nurse dominated all season, leading his Soo Greyhounds into the OHL playoffs, and an extremely entertaining series against Connor McDavid and the Erie Otters. Prior to that, Nurse was on the same Canadian junior team as McDavid, and was a pivotal member of that blue line, taking on more of a shut down role playing against the top players in the world.

As I mentioned earlier, Nurse did make the Oilers out of camp last season, albeit for two games before returning to junior. However, that was a defense corps that looked very different from the one Peter Chiarelli has assembled this offseason. The additions of Andrej Sekera and Eric Gryba this summer brings in two more experienced NHL players. That, along with added competition in Griffin Reinhart and the recently re-signed Brandon Davidson is going to make the Oilers a very hard team to make on the back end, although there could still be moves made before the start of the season that may open a spot or two. I’m hoping if it comes down to Nurse and say, Davidson for that seventh spot, Davidson gets it. Nurse is only going to benefit from playing. I would much rather see Darnell Nurse as a staple on the blue line in Bakersfield, eating huge minutes in all situations, instead of healthy scratched most of the year.

That being said, as beneficial as starting the year in the AHL would be for Nurse, I don’t expect him to be there long, and definitely not after Christmas. He’s ready for the NHL now, and I expect he’s going to be a key figure for the Oilers for many, many years.

Leon Draisaitl
This is a player who, I feel, the Oilers handled in all the wrong ways last season. My personal feeling is Draisaitl should not have played one NHL game last season, let alone 37. That’s not a knock against him in anyway. I think given some time to develop and adjust to the pro game in the AHL, Draisaitl is going to evolve into a very, very good NHL player. He has the size and he thinks the game well. But he’s lacking speed. And that was something that should have been evident last year in training camp. Unfortunately, Craig MacTavish felt comfortable with what he had down the middle, and ended up burning the 1st year of Draisaitl’s ELC.

Now, I understand the situation the Oilers found themselves in, not wanting to send Draisaitl to a Prince Albert team that was going to be at the bottom of the WHL. I’m of the opinion that a trade could have been worked out earlier, even if it meant Draisaitl playing a few months with the PA Raiders. Also, I don’t recall Jordan Eberle suffering that much playing for a non-playoff team in Regina. The story also eventually came out that it was the Oilers who determined Draisaitl would not be representing Germany at the World Juniors last season. Again, a situation in which there may or may not have been a large amount of success to be had, but representing his country again would have at least given Draisaitl some confidence. And it’s not as though he was making a difference for the Oilers at the time.

But, be that as it may, Draisaitl excelled once he finally did make it back to the WHL, with the Kelowna Rockets. He helped the Rockets secure a berth in the Memorial Cup by capturing the WHL Championship, being named playoff MVP in the process. And although he came up short in the Memorial Cup championship game, Draisaitl walked away from the tournament with both the Ed Chynoweth Trophy as the leading scorer of the tournament, but also Memorial Cup MVP.

Much like Nurse, there is a very good chance Draisaitl makes the Oilers out of camp this year again. Also like Nurse, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with him starting the year in Bakersfield. With both McDavid and Mark Letestu filling in the middle along with Nugent-Hopkins and Anton Lander, there’s been talk of moving Draisaitl to the wing, which I think would be a very beneficial move.

Anders Nilsson
The battle of the goalies at training camp should be interesting. Ben Scrivens was not good last year, and Viktor Fasth has moved on to the KHL. This off season saw Chiarelli bring in Cam Talbot, who many are pegging as the new number one. If that is the case, then the back up position is going to be between Scrivens, and Anders Nilsson, who was acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks, and quickly signed a one-way deal with the Oilers. However, Nilsson signing a one-way deal makes me wonder if Scrivens is being shopped. Nilsson looks to be a capable back up to Talbot, having posted some very nice numbers last year with Kazan Ak-Bars of the KHL.

That being said, last season was the only year he posted a GAA under 2.00, seeing previous action with the Bridgeport Tigers of the AHL, and a handful of games with the Islanders, who drafted him in 2009. This could be the restart he needs. My thought is he was brought in by Chiarelli fully expecting to be the back up to Talbot. Sending him down to the minors doesn’t benefit Nilsson at all, and if anything, hampers the development of Laurent Brossoit, who should be the starter in Bakersfield next year.

Tyler Pitlick
My opinion is that this is Pitlick’s last chance to prove he belongs with the big club. Although he’s suffered through injuries, he looked to be on the right track last year, scoring a couple of goals before injuries ended his season. Pitlick brings just what the Oilers need in their bottom six, which is physicality and an ability to chip in some goals. His 62 points in his only year of junior hockey with Medicine Hat is proof of that.

Pitlick could be in tough to secure a spot in the bottom six. Rob Klinkhammer and Matt Hendricks are both stalwarts for the Oilers, and the addition of Lauri Korpikoski accounts for 3 of the 4 winger positions available. Factor in that the Oilers will have to find a spot for top six players like Teddy Purcell and Nail Yakupov, and the log jam gets even worse. For Pitlick though, he may be able to come into camp, and impress enough to force out a Luke Gazdic, or at least secure some playing time as an interchangeable 13th forward.

The biggest struggle for Pitlick is going to be staying healthy. A knee injury in the 2013-14 season limited him to 49 games split between the Oilers and the Oklahoma City Barons, while a lacerated spleen resulted in Pitlick missing all but a combined 31 games. When healthy though, Pitlick has shown he can be an effective player at the AHL level. That’s something he’ll need to try and carry over to the NHL level.

Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Jack Gruninger, NHL

Signing Franson Without Using a Buyout

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There has been a lot of talk about the Oilers using their upcoming buyout window to buyout the contract(s) of Nikitin, Purcell, and/or Ference. The logical explanation for buying out a contract would be to make room for the addition of a defenceman either via trade (Seabrook perhaps) or through free agency (Franson or Ehrhoff). Personally, I believe Franson makes the most sense for the Oilers. He would fill the role that Justin Schultz is in now more effectively than Schultz, and would be cheaper and cost no assets to acquire, unlike Brent Seabrook. While Ehrhoff would also be a decent, and likely even less expensive option, Franson adds depth to the weakest organizational position, right-handed defencemen.

I took a look at how the Oilers could potentially add Franson, on a 6 year, $30m contract ($5m AAV) without using a buyout, and also did some armchair GMing to determine the cap implications for the next few seasons:

[table id=11 /]

In this scenario, instead of buying out Nikitin’s contract, I have him being buried in the minors, freeing $0.950m in cap space and resulting in $3.550m in buried cap hit. The additional $0.050m in buried cap space is from Anders Nilsson’s contract. I believe that Scrivens will beat out Nilsson for the backup job. Chances are, if Nilsson was sent to the AHL, he and the Oilers would just agree to mutually terminate his contract, allowing him to return to Europe, or he would be loaned to a team in Europe, allowing the Oilers to retain his rights. I have Andrew Miller making the team because I don’t think he would clear waivers and I thought he played very well in his limited time here last season. Another very important thing to note is that Draisaitl, Reinhart, and Nurse are all in the AHL. Of course, I doubt that any of them will spend all season in Bakersfield, but in this case this will be a development year for all 3 for most of the season. The addition of Franson reduces the need to bring Nurse or Reinhart into the NHL too quickly. The “Maximum” amount referenced in the table refers to the cap hit that would exist if all bonuses were achieved. In this scenario, we would see a $0.988m overage carried into next season:

[table id=12 /]

In this case, I only listed the bonuses that fit under the bonus cushion as “bonuses” in the final cap calculation. The rest, approximately $4.234m worth of performance bonuses are included in the “Cap Hit” to show that the Oilers would not be above the upper limit. Current salary cap projections have the cap staying about the same due to the low Canadian Dollar, so we’ll assume the cap remains at $71.4m. This means that the Oilers would be carrying a $1.988m bonus overage into the 2017-18 season, at most.

Let’s take a look at some of the roster moves that lead to this roster for 2016-17. Amongst forwards, I have Teddy Purcell, Rob Klinkhammer, and Andrew Miller leaving via free agency, and Lauri Korpikoski being buried in the minors. Essentially, Draisaitl replaces Purcell, Slepyshev replaces Korpikoski, Pakarinen replaces Klinkhammer, and an additional forward, from either within or outside the organization replaces Miller. On defence, Ference is bought out of the final year of his deal, Nikitin and Gryba walk as UFAs, and the Oilers either trade or let Justin Schultz walk. Klefbom is re-signed to a long term deal at $4.5m a season, while Reinhart, Nurse, and a defensive prospect, I have Oesterle, join the big club. In goal, Scrivens walks as a free agent and is replaced by Brossoit on a 1 year bridge deal. Cam Talbot is re-signed to a 4 year, $5m AAV deal.

In the 2017 offseason, I figure that the Oilers will have some tough roster decisions to make, with the large bonus overage and several key re-signings coming up such as McDavid and Nurse. I came up with this for the 2017-18 season, using a projected salary cap of $73m:

[table id=13 /]

First off, the two major moves are trading Nail Yakupov and Mark Fayne. Mark Fayne would be traded because with the development of our young defencemen, he would no longer fit. It is the last year of his deal so the team should be able to find a taker. I chose to trade Yakupov because he is a RFA at this point and I don’t believe the Oilers would be able to re-sign him to a reasonable amount. The desired return would include a young right-handed defenceman to play on the third pairing with Reinhart.

For some of the more minor moves, I have Draisaitl signing a bridge deal similar to Ryan Johansen’s. Anton Lander re-signs to a deal around 3-4 years with a $3m AAV. Pakarinen re-signs to a bridge deal and Yakimov joins the team full time on a small one-year deal. Hendricks walks as an UFA. On defence, Reinhart is re-signed to a long term deal. It’s difficult to project his AAV until we know what he can provide to the team but I have put it at $4m. Laurent Brossoit is re-signed to a $2m AAV bridge deal for a couple seasons. This roster carries a $0.386m overage.

Finally, into 2018-19, where we’ll predict a $76m salary cap:

[table id=14 /]

Here the last year of Benoit Pouliot’s deal is traded as well as Cam Talbot, who is replaced by Laurent Brossoit. McDavid and Nurse are both re-signed to long term deals. Yakimov and Slepyshev are re-signed to bridge deals, and the Oilers are left over with $810k in cap space.

Now of course, the chances of everything I have said happening to the exact are very, very low. There are a lot of things we are relying on to happen here. We assume that Draisaitl, Nurse, and Reinhart all pan out, which is likely to happen, but we also assume that Pakarinen, Yakimov, Slepyshev, etc. become useful NHL players. While this scenario outlined what would happen in the seasons following the Oilers just signing Franson or obtaining another defenceman at similar value, a similar thing would likely happen if Nikitin had been bought out and replaced. Unless the cap increases significantly, if the Oilers do decide to add another defenceman to the team, there will have to be players traded to make room.

As for the quality of the team itself, here is a possible lineup for the 2018-19 season:

Hall – McDavid – Draisaitl
Lander – Nugent-Hopkins – Eberle
Slepyshev – Yakimov – Chase
? – ? – Pakarinen

Nurse – Sekera
Klefbom – Franson
Reinhart – ?
Simpson

Brossoit
? (Possibly Laurikainen)

This looks to be a very good team. That first line could be absolutely deadly, and there is an excellent defensive core, assuming all players develop to their potential.

One last thing that’s important to mention is the contracts for all of these players. It’s difficult to predict some of these contracts. Even for Franson himself, I have him signing for $5m, but he may want more. There are many bridge deals that could come back to haunt the team, but ultimately, if the Oilers want to achieve the most depth possible they may have to look an less expensive bridge deals as a way to open cap space.

Thanks for reading. Also, if you haven’t seen them yet, the “8-Bit Heroes” shirts are now available at Nation Gear. Thanks to our partners at Oilersnation.com for these awesome shirts.

We also have a bunch of new shirts available at the Beer League Heroes Store, so be sure to check those out as well.

Armchair GM, NHL, Zach Laing

Doing The Unthinkable: Trading for Seth Jones

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Crazy thought isn’t is? I have to tell you, this has been rattling around in my head since the day Jones was drafted by the Nashville Predators. His size, speed, skill and great statistics have quickly pushed him to be one of the top young defenders in the NHL; He’s only 20 years old to boot.

The truth is that I don’t believe the Oilers are done. I really don’t.

For those who don’t know, I am also a writer at the website Copper ‘n Blue. On July 1st, I pointed out in a Copper ‘n Blue article that the Oilers have nine defenceman who can play at the NHL level next year, and that isn’t including Brandon Davidson who just signed a one year deal this morning.

Name Age Years remaining Cap Hit
Andrej Sekera 29 6 $5.5 mil
Nikita Nikitin 29 1 $4.5 mil
Justin Schultz 24 RFA N/A
Mark Fayne 28 3 $3.625 mil
Andrew Ference 36 2 $3.25 mil
Eric Gryba 27 1 $1.25 mil
Oscar Klefbom 21 1 $894 166
Darnell Nurse 20 3 $863 333
Griffin Rienhart 21 2 $863 333

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looking at the big picture, almost any of these guys could make the roster. However, I think the most logical lineup would be:

Sekera – Fayne
Schultz – Klefbom
Ference – Gryba/Nikitin/Nurse

Not bad. The defence is improved over last season, but that comes with adding a guy like Sekera, and providing more depth with Gryba.

Does this defence help push us to the playoffs? It’s questionable. That is why I still believe that the Oilers are not finished. With the 48-hour buyout window opening Saturday, the Oilers have a chance to use a buyout on a player like Nikitin.

This would allow for the opportunity to arise for a trade possibility with another team. Many have suggested Brent Seabrook as the likely target for a trade-and-sign, and I would be very okay with that. However, I would almost prefer to pay a similar value to acquire a player like Seth Jones.

Again, I am totally spitballing here but would Leon Draisaitl and next years first get the deal done? Maybe even throw in a prospect like Pakarinen, Platzer or Musil to sweeten the deal?

Jones would be able to step into Edmonton and have an immediate impact. I spoke with Preds blogger Mark Harris who had this to say about Jones:

He’s going to be a superstar no question. Gotta realize he’s also yet to have played with a steady partner his whole NHL career… He played next to Ellis/Ekholm rookie year, Volchenkov/Bartley last year and now he’ll be with Jackman. 

At 20 years old, Jones does some very special things for a young defenceman. Last season, he put up a 53 CF%, playing 20+ minutes a night, scoring at a 1.1 P/60 rate. He would come into Edmonton and would likely slide right into the top pairing besides Sekera, or on the second pairing to provide a little balance to the defensive corps. Like Mark said, there is no denying the fact Jones will be a superstar in this league for years to come.

At the end of next season, Jones is an RFA and will be due for a big payday. I would imagine he would be able to be had for a deal similar to the one signed for Dougie Hamilton (6-year, $5.75 AAV). It goes back to what happened this past off-season with the threat of the offer sheet from opposing teams. Hamilton was the hottest commodity on the market and Boston felt threatened enough from teams like Edmonton to move him prior to a offer sheets coming in.

Boston eventually traded Hamilton to Calgary for a first and two seconds. It was rumoured that Edmonton was in the middle of the race to acquire Hamilton, but it was said that Nurse needed to be apart of the deal and that was enough for Edmonton to back out of the deal. Could next season be another one like we saw this year when big name RFA’s like Brandon Saad, Dougie Hamilton and Martin Jones get moved due to the threat? At the same time, Nashville isn’t up against the cap like Chicago or Boston so they could potentially be in a position to match an offer sheet next season.

None the less, I still believe the Oilers have more work to be done.