Tag Archives: Dougie Hamilton

Armchair GM, Bakersfield Condors, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Podcast, Prospects, Rumors, Trades

Oilers Trades: Real, Rumored, and Speculated

January 5, 2018 Beer League Hero 2 Comments

This week the Oilers trade talk has been a real treat to experience. We’ve had deals that were never made, deals that are being made up, and an actual trade. The common denominator in all of them, Oilers fans have been given another reason to bitch and moan about Peter Chiarelli.

I mean isn’t it amazing, if you go to the sponsored Oilers blogs like Oilersnation, The Oilers Rig, Copper and Blue, or Oil on Whyte, it’s all FIRE CHIARELLI! Get rid of McLellan!

I get why they do it apart from clicks for the sites but it’s really a shame. I thought re-hashing the Larsson trade every month was bad but this is getting ridiculous (and unoriginal).

Rant over.

The Speculated Trade

Ray Ferraro threw a trade idea out into the wind this week that sparked the fires of discontent amongst Oilers fans. A deal centered upon two stars, Max Pacioretty and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

“What if there’s a deal to be made between Edmonton and Montreal that involves Nugent-Hopkins, and Pacioretty is in it? And there are some other pieces to equal the way that works. Edmonton gets a shooter. Gee, that would look pretty good on McDavid’s side. Montreal gets a centre. Gee that would look pretty good in that centre spot.”

Over at the Athletic, Jonathan Willis also jumped on the “trade Nuge” bandwagon this week and his reason was that all of his numbers are basically the same as they’ve always been but the difference being this year he’s riding a shooting percentage that is 40% better than his career average. Sort of the opposite of what usually happens to an Oiler before he’s traded.

My thoughts: If there’s a year to trade RNH, it’s this one unless the Oilers go on a ridiculous tear and are in a playoff spot come trade deadline. His value couldn’t get any higher and the Oilers still need a top 4 right-handed PP specialist on defense. Someone who can transition the puck a helluva lot faster than what the Oilers dmen are doing now. They could also use a proper right-handed 3rd line centre who is a marvel on the PK too and if they acquired both of those pieces in a trade for RNH, what’s the problem?

On the other hand, if the Oilers are looking for a LW who can score, why not simply move RNH to McDavid’s left wing and be done with it. Internal solution utilized!

The Real Trade

Al Montoya from the Montreal Canadiens to the Oilers for a 5th round pick which may turn into a 4th rounder if the former 6th overall pick plays more than 7 games.

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My thoughts: I like it but the folks in the Oilers Twittersphere who think they’re smarterthan everyone else hate it because they think that the Oilers could’ve grabbed a backup off of the waiver wire, even Montoya had they waited for Montreal to activate him off of the IR. The problem with that line of thinking is we don’t know what the price was for those backups and the Oilers defense could be held just as responsible for the poor goaltending performances earlier in the year.

Another thought out there was that 3rd string goalies can be had anything for a 4th round pick but I don’t subscribe to that. If that was the case, we would’ve seen some of these goalies like Pickard, Hutchinson, Hammond, Lindgren, or Sparks with new homes.

Todd McLellan said that they’re worried about Brossoit getting reps but somebody is going to have to be sacrificed for LB to get some games in. I’m guessing Brossoit hits waivers (gets claimed… wouldn’t that be fun fodder for the Chia-haters?), clears, goes down and then Eddie Pasquale goes to the ECHL or is traded/loaned. Nick Ellis, who’s had better AHL stats than Brossoit since taking over in Bakersfield is getting a raw deal here and I feel bad for him.

The Rumored Deal

What did Peter Chiarelli do to Darren Dreger? Geez.

Yesterday on Dustin Nielsen’s show Dreger dropped this massive bombshell that the Oilers had a deal with the Ottawa Senators that would’ve seen Taylor Hall traded for Cody Ceci but Sens ownership needed to approve it, was nowhere to be found, and subsequently Adam Larsson was traded for instead.

Taylor Hall was rumored to be traded for a lot of different dmen before he was actually traded. PK Subban was one, Dougie Hamilton was one, and Kevin Shattenkirk was another. So don’t get your speedos in a bunch by second-guessing Chiarelli’s player evaluation abilities.

We know GMs talk all of the time and they hash out potential deals on a weekly basis and then tweak them up if need be. Sometimes they sit on a trade for months before pulling the trigger.

The timing couldn’t get any better eh? Dreger had been sitting on this little tidbit of information for nearly two years before throwing it out into the world right when the Oilers mired in a 4-game losing streak and the heat couldn’t get any hotter on Peter Chiarelli?

Or was this a veiled shot at Sens GM Pierre Dorion?

Either way, what was Dreger’s motivation to do this? I can’t see any scenario where saying this would benefit anybody but himself or TSN’s radio numbers. He did mention it whilst talking about Edmonton and Ottawa not being good trade partners but still, I do not believe it was mentioned without ill intent aka it was a dick move.

Last Night’s Game

Fack! Was that a fun game to watch or what?!

The win versus the Ducks has their record versus teams in the Pacific to 4-1-0. They’ve outscored their division rivals 23-12 in that time but do you know what the fun part about the rest of the year is?

21 out of the remaining 41 games remaining in the season for the Oilers are against Pacific Division teams… And if you’re worried about that home PK (obligatory statistical preface: #smallsamplesize), the Oilers PK at home versus the Pacific, 85.7% and an added bonus is that their PP is 37.5%.

Peter Chiarelli said that he was going to build a team that would compete in the Pacific and despite how you feel about his handling of assets, you have to agree that he’s a man of his word.

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Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors, Trades

Hamilton Rumour Update + G16 vs. New York

November 13, 2016 Beer League Hero

Earlier today I posted that the Oilers are in the mix for Calgary Flames struggling defenceman Dougie Hamilton. Well, I dug in a bit more with my source and the thought is that the Oilers are looking to send Calgary a package that would include Edmonton’s 2017 1st rounder, Benoit Pouliot, and Griffin Reinhart in return for the defenseman and Lance Bouma.

Now, to me, that all sounds pretty convenient right? Pouliot, when on his game, is a very valuable piece for the Oilers. A big body with great technical skill and strength but he can’t seem to shake off some bad mojo or something. With the penalties at the beginning of the year and that horrid own goal vs. PIT… Chia has traded him before, so I’m not surprised that he might be part of ANY deal the Oilers are putting together in their attempt to upgrade the D.

Griffin Reinhart, hurt at the moment with a back ailment, is someone I think that Chiarelli is looking to get away from as fast as possible. Those boots are simply not getting any faster and Griff is getting passed over at an alarming rate by Edmonton’s other, less prominent, prospects. Matt Benning and Dillon Simpson being two of the most recent ones but Jordan Oesterle is another that got some time ahead of Reinhart.

The Oilers 1st rounder will be in play every year as long as they are contending for a playoff spot. The team has found itself in a bit of a funk lately and, in my opinion, Chia is desperate to find that PP QB. Hamilton would be that guy, no?

**STATS**

(Man I hope I get these right, sometimes I fear that I’m reading these numbers all wrong…)

Dougie Hamilton, in his NHL career to date, has only played a shade over 560 minutes of PP time according to stats.hockeyanalysis.com over the past 5 seasons (2012-2016). He’s scored at a clip of 4.15 p/60 in that time frame at 5v4 and is ranked 30th AHEAD of PK Subban (31st), Duncan Keith (35th), and Roman Josi (54th). The highest current Oiler on that list is Oscar Klefbom at 58th with a 3.65 p/60 at 5v4.

Also, in that time frame, Hamilton is ranked 10th in the NHL for shots/60 with 14.90!!! Closest current Oiler, Oscar Klefbom at 53rd w/ 11.69 shots/60 with the 5v4 man advantage.

So if you’re that guy that says, “No f*cking way man! Hamilton is playing like shit this year. I’d rather have Justin Schultz than Dougie Hamilton and his inflated contract…”, don’t stop eating the yellow snow.

The Oilers could really use a guy like Doug Hamilton. Don’t forget, he’s coming off of back to back 40+ point seasons and he’s playing for the woeful Calgary Flames… They need his contract off the books as it’s bad for them but it’s decent for us IF that rumored return is true.

With all of that being said, do you, as an Oilers fan, think that a package of Benoit Pouliot, Griffin Reinhart, and a 1st round pick for Hamilton and Bouma is better that what other teams might be offering? I have a hard time believing so.

Bring me the Nakladal, right?…

The Rags

Expect the unexpected, right? That’s what I’ve been preaching so far this season and I’m going to go with it again. I say the Oilers are going to win this one tonight. I think they’re going to buckle down that defense and put a stranglehold on the Rangers offense much the way Conor McGregor did to Eddie Alvarez the last night.

*Just as an aside, the best part of that fight was at the end when everyone thought he was going to apologize for being a dick to all the fighters. I wonder if we’ll see him leave the UFC altogether and head to WWE?*

The Oilers only task is to not let in any goals in the first 5 minutes nor the last 2 minutes… And Lucic had better smash someone tonight, the fans want to be entertained 🙂

What do you think about the Hamilton rumour? Let me know in the comments below!

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Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, NHL Entry Draft, Rumors, Trades

Had This Deal Gone Down, Could the Oilers Have Kept Hall?

July 20, 2016 Beer League Hero 3 Comments

When’s the last time the Flames and Oilers hooked up for a trade? Staios? Smid?

I came across a guest post on another website the other day and there was a gentlemen out of Toronto who wrote something very interesting…

So i was talking to someone with direct knowledge of the situation that there was almost a 3 way trade done on day 1 of the draft just before it began.

They had mentioned that there was a trade in the works that would have sent the 3rd overall pick (clb) to calgary for the 6th overall pick + but that the blue jackets did not want to move to the 6th spot.

Enter the oilers 4th overall pick peter chiarelli was in and almost made this trade

blue jackets
ryan nugent-hopkins
4th overall pick (edm)

flames
3rd overall pick (clb)
sonny milano

oilers
6th overall pick (cgy)
dougie hamilton

this was the entire proposed trade i asked him twice to make sure but he said these were all the parts no additions anywhere , he also said this trade was essentially done until the last second when the blue jackets gm jarmo Kekäläinen played his hand a little quick , mentioned he had dubios above puljujarvi and that was the comment that killed the trade. chiarelli pulled out once he realized that he could get puljujarvi with the 4th overall and that stopped all wheels in motion.

That would’ve been a killer I say. Now it’s all hearsay and rumour at this point of course. We’ll never know if this is actually true or not but how would’ve this deal changed the landscape of the Oilers as we know them today?

Is it safe to assume that the team would’ve still gone and signed Lucic? I say yes.
Bob Stauffer has intimated that the Oilers had Mikhail Sergachev at the no.4 spot behind Puljujarvi. I’ll say they would’ve taken him at no.6 but they would’ve had their choice or Juolevi or Tkachuk as well.
Who would slot in at 3C? Caggiula? A free agent? Not sure they’d have had the cash to bring in anybody significant.

Here’s how the roster might’ve looked had the deal gone down.

Lucic-McDavid-Yakupov
Hall-Draisaitl-Eberle
Pouliot-XXX-Kassian
Maroon-Letestu-Pakarinen
Hendricks, Lander

Klefbom-Hamilton
Sekera-Fayne
Nurse-Davidson
Reinhart

Talbot
Gustavsson

Down Nugent-Hopkins but up on defence with Dougie Hamilton. We know that the Oilers did in fact talk to the Blue Jackets GM and the Flames GM at the draft (Stauffer has mentioned this on his show as well) and we also know that Chiarelli was trying to get Hamilton out of Boston at last year’s draft.

Walter Foddis had this to say when comparing Larsson to Hamilton:

That’s a tough one. Hamilton is better offensively, whereas Larsson is better defensively. Looking at some metrics, Hamilton’s eGF% vs top-end competition is better than Larsson’s, especially against top-pairing D-men. Hamilton’s eGF% vs top-pairing Dmen was 47.3% & Larsson’s was 39.5%.

Overall, Larsson’s CA RelTM is -4 and Hamilton’s +2, which suggest Larsson is stronger defensivelly. That is, Larsson’s NJD allowed 6 fewer shot attempts/60 minutes than Hamilton’s Flames.

The opposite is true for offense, though. Hamilton’s Flames generated 11 more shot attempts per 60 minutes than Larsson’s NJD.

So although Larsson appears be stronger defensively, Hamilton’s offensive game more than compensates for this deficiency.

Comparing them on the WoodMoney metric would be interesting.

Would the Oilers still be looking for that PP QB? Chiarelli did say that the Hall deal was going down regardless but I have to call bullsh*t on that if Hamilton could’ve been acquired…

I don’t like the idea of the Oilers having poor depth at centre but one would have to think that had this scenario gone down as such that the Oilers would’ve traded one of the left-wings (Pouliot most likely) for a serviceable third line center.

What are your thoughts on this rumor? Would you have rather had Hall, Lucic, Hamilton and Sergachev, or Nugent-Hopkins, Lucic, Larsson, and Puljujarvi? Which grouping would’ve made the Oilers a better team?

Let me know in the comments below!

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Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Micah Kowalchuk, NHL, Trades

How Much Does a Right-Handed Defenseman Go For Anyway…

March 21, 2016 Micah Kowalchuk 6 Comments

So, at this point of the year, we’re left wondering with these two questions. First, what is a quality Top-6 NHL winger worth, and second, what is the going price for a quality Top-4 right-handed defenseman.

In an effort to answer these burning questions while I wait for the snow to melt so I can start golfing, because, well, that’s what us Oilers fans do in the spring, here’s my best guess.

To do this, we can essentially just look at the deals for defensemen, there’s really only been 8 deals involving high-end right-handed defensemen in recent history, and here’s how they break down:

Jason Demers, originally a 7^th round pick, had played parts of 6 seasons with the San Jose Sharks when he was dealt to the Dallas Stars for a 3^rd round pick and Brenden Dillon. At that point of his career, he could safely be considered a 4/5 defenseman who has flourished in Dallas with more opportunity;
- He was dealt for a defenseman who was younger and considered to have more upside at the time, and who was 6’3 225lbs.
Kevin Shattenkirk, in his first season with the Avalanche, was dealt along with a 2^nd round pick and Chris Stewart, at the time considered a Top-6 NHL power forward, for Erik Johnson, a first round pick, and a depth forward;
- Once again, we have defensemen going both ways in this deal as a balance, and both were considered quality young defensemen with high upside;
Matt Niskanen was dealt, along with James Neal, to the Pittsburgh Penguins for Alex Goligoski, who at the time was considered a potentially premier offensive defenseman;
- Again, we see a defenseman for a defenseman swap, with the better defensemen resulting in the inclusion of a scoring winger;
Tyler Myers, along with pending UFA winger Drew Stafford, a pair of prospects and a first round pick to the Winnipeg Jets for Evander Kane and Zack Bogosian;
- Once again we see scoring forwards to balance the deal in favour of who gets the better defenseman, but again there are defensemen moving in the deal;

Now, to look at the deals where no other defensemen were involved:

Brent Burns for Devin Setoguchi and a first. Now, it has to be noted here, Burns was as much a winger as a defenseman at this time, and therefore was dealt for another winger with an included draft pick;
Dustin Byfuglien (along with Ben Eager, Brent Sopel and Akim Aliu) for a 1^st, 2^nd, and a selection of depth forwards. Once again, Byfuglien was considered as much a power forward, and therefore his price was more along the lines of a scoring forward;
Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen. This was the most recent move, where a larger 1^st line center was moved for a player who, although having potential, was a 2^nd pairing right-hand defenseman on his team;
Johnny Boychuk for two 2nds and a conditional 3^rd. It has to be noted that the Islanders caught Boston in a bad cap situation and was able to take advantage of it due to their cap space. This deal, although fans scream for the Oilers to make a similar one, was lighting in a bottle and is unlikely to be duplicated;
Dougie Hamilton was dealt for a 1st and two 2nd round picks when he didn’t sign his RFA deal;

So, to summarize, we can discount the Boychuk deal as a rarity, and we can consider the Burns and Byfuglien deals to essential be for forwards (at the time). That leaves us with the various deals where they are essentially Best Defensemen in the Deal for Scoring Forward and Lesser Defenseman, and then the deal of a 2^nd pairing with potential Defenseman for a Top-3 Center. This shows us how much value is generally placed on a right-handed defenseman, and we can expect one of our younger left-handed defenseman will be going alongside any winger we deal to obtain such a right-handed defenseman.

Now, one can debate the quality of players such as Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov or Taylor Hall, but as becomes clear, no one deals a quality right-handed defenseman for a winger unless a secondary defenseman was included. Goligoski for Niskanen and Neal are an example of this. The only real exception would be the Burns scenario, which would still place a rough price of approximately Jordan Eberle and our first round pick to make that deal happen. Essentially, any deal the Oilers do will probably have to include one of Oesterle, Davidson or even Klefbom along with a winger to get that quality right-side defenseman, or else our first-round pick plus a winger. The only exception would be if the Oilers chose to deal Nugent-Hopkins, who may at best on his own fetch a right-handed defenseman with “potential”.

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Edmonton Oilers, Kris Hansen

BLH Edmonton Oilers Weekly Recap Dec 27th-Jan 2nd

January 3, 2016 Beer League Hero

– photo by Andy Devlin / Edmonton Oilers Hockey Club

Tough week for the Edmonton Oilers as they finish 1-3-0, against Pacific Division rivals no less.

That’s a tough pill to swallow. They blew a two goal lead, twice, against Calgary. Goaltending sank the team against Los Angeles. Anaheim was just better.

The victory against Arizona ended a four game skid, which is good. It was an entertaining game yesterday and I thought the Oilers played well enough.

The upcoming week there are only two games on the dock, as they continue their six game homestead.

Edmonton Oilers Three Stars.

3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: Finally making an appearance on the three stars of the week, the second line has finally stopped sleep walking through games. Nugent-Hopkins looked like one of the best forwards in yesterday’s tilt against Arizona. This week, Nuge posted four points, all assists in four games. It’s a quiet, but solid showing from 93, who has been struggling this year.

2. Jordan Eberle: Like 93, he showed up this week. Eberle posted five points in four games, including three goals. Two of those goals were nifty ones against Arizona. Yesterday, he also registered his 300th point of his career. Eberle has taken a lot of flak these last couple weeks due to lack of production, but it’s good to see him starting to turn it around now.

1. Benoit Pouliot: To be fair, it was a toss up between Eberle and Pouliot as they posted the same box numbers and Eberle did reach a milestone yesterday. That said, I like Pouliot’s game. He plays aggressively on the forecheck, sometimes too aggressive as he did have two penalties in the offensive zone yesterday against Arizona. The goal that stands out for me was his second against Calgary: he losses his helmet, but that doesn’t faze him one bit as he goes to his spot in the slot and scores. He brings a grittier element to his line.

Edmonton Oilers News and Rumors

Connor McDavid and Nail Yakupov both skated with the team on Friday. This is obviously great news: McDavid would be a tremendous boost to the team. Sure, he’s not playing Defence and can’t bring stability to the crease, but he’s such a special talent that I don’t think we can really grasp just how good he is. Based on some short clip (I know great sample size) he seems to be shooting, stick handle and pass the puck just fine. He keeps saying to the media that he’s feeling better. I think he plays before the All Star Break.

I wrote about an interesting part of Lowetide’s blog regarding a Mayor’s Manor tweet: The Oilers are interested in the services of Mike Richards. Some people will say that it’s to replace Nugent-Hopkins but that’s foolish: Richards is a shell of his former self and would be strictly a bottom six role. I think he would be more effective than Lander save for faceoffs.

Earlier this week, The Edmonton Oilers acquired Zack Kassian from the Montreal Canadiens for Ben Scrivens. Last night was Kassian’s debut in Bakersfield where he posted no points, a +1, four shots on goal and four minutes in penalties.

Around the League

https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/683690926666084352

That’s some big news. I’ve been saying Free Drouin for awhile and I don’t think he’s getting a fair shake in Tampa Bay. I also don’t think the Oilers make sense as a fit either.

I wonder when he’ll get dealt.

Toronto Media can’t get over the McDavid lottery.

The Canadiens thumped the Bruins in the 2016 Winter Classic. I personally love outdoor games.

John Scott, NHL All Star Captain.

Rob Martell refereed his 1000th and final NHL game.

The Florida Panthers have won 8 in a row!

Crosby is on a point streak.

Highlights

The Coyotes Oilers Game