Tag Archives: Dustin Byfuglien

Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors

BLH’s Trade Rumors and Ramblings: Hall to the Habs? Flames Considering Kylington Trade?

Man, did the Edmonton Oilers really shit the bed against the worst team in their conference last night? As good as Leon Draisaitl has been playing, he was horrid in that game. Same goes for Mike Smith, whose play has been either rock solid or cotton candy soft this season. Don’t get me wrong, I like the guy and I don’t expect him to put up all-star numbers, but can we get some consistency?

The good thing is, they’ve got a back-to-back coming up against two really good teams (Vegas and Arizona), so we should see a much higher quality of effort shortly. It’d be a shame for them to hit a rut after such an impressive start to the year like the one we’re seeing Buffalo hit right now.

What better way to soothe one’s soul after such a piss poor display from his favorite team than to get into some current trade rumors going around the NHL.

Taylor Hall to the Montreal Canadiens?

Eric Engels via Twitter: “Elliotte doesn’t mention it, but speculation is bound to increase on the possibility Bergevin will look to rent pending UFA Taylor Hall. No intel on that right now, but given Habs good play and the fact that they’re armed with 12 picks and a strong prospect pool, you have to think it’s possible. With the draft in Montreal this summer, would think Bergevin would prefer to move a 2021 first-round pick if need be. Anyway, I repeat, all quiet on this front. But with Drouin’s long term injury, speculation won’t exactly cool on this front.”

BLH’s Thoughts: Hall is going to be a helluva rental for someone. No doubt Devils GM Ray Shero is getting a feel for the market as we speak. I don’t think the Oilers will mortgage the future to bring Hall back but teams like the Habs or the Avs could make some very promising offers to the Devils that would include high draft picks and bluechip prospects. Could a team like Tampa or Calgary or Nashville step in and make a shock trade for the former NHL MVP though?

Will Big Buff Return?

Jeff Marek and Elliotte Friedman spoke briefly about Dustin Byfuglien’s ongoing situation in Winnipeg in their latest 31 Thoughts podcast. One thing that stood out was Friedman saying (I’m paraphrasing) that he isn’t sure if there’s an appetite from either side for the rearguard to go back and suit up for the Jets.

BLH’s Thoughts: I like this player A LOT and would love to see him in Oilers silks. Given it’d take some time for him to get back up to speed, but Edmonton hasn’t seen a defender of his quality since Pronger was in town. Depending on how desperate the Jets are to move him out, could Edmonton send Kris Russell, Sam Gagner, and a prospect like William Lagesson to Winnipeg to pry Byfuglien out of the airport-less city?

Will Calgary Move Kylington?

Another topic from the 31 Thoughts podcast was Oliver Kylington. Marek and Friedman bantered about the young Swede and in Friedman’s 31 Thoughts blog, he said this,

One interesting possibility: Oliver Kylington, who would like more opportunity. But, again, other teams have indicated the Flames are being careful not to undervalue their own players during tough times.

The Sportsnet insider mentioned that Kylington would like to play a lot more than he is at the moment.

BLH’s Thoughts: The feeling out there is that the players are going to have to dig themselves out of this one. Calgary already axed one coach (Glen Gulutzan) because the players quit on him and from what I’ve gathered, they’ll be sticking with Bill Peters here. Calgary’s stars are going through a funk and eventually, they’ll break out of it, but how long can the Flames wait? Personally, I don’t think they need a blockbuster trade here. There’ve been lots of Hall for Gaudreau rumors going about but that doesn’t make sense to me. They’ve got Johnny hockey locked up for a few more years at a very affordable price. That said, if some sort of roster shakeup is needed, moving Kylington isn’t going to hurt the roster in my opinion but maybe they’d be better off moving Travis Hamonic…

JG Pageau an Oiler?

The Oilers have been interested in this player for a while now and it’s my belief that they’d be willing to pay the price to acquire him. What that price is at the moment is unknown. It wouldn’t surprise me if it was a first-round pick and a prospect though. To me, that seems high, but I think there’ve been some contemplations regarding a Jesse Puljujarvi/Pageau swap in the past though.

Look, Pageau is the perfect third-line center for the Oilers and I get that he’s an Ottawa boy, however, he’d have a much higher chance at winning a Stanley Cup with the Oilers. One has to consider what he’d be looking for in a contract extension though as he’s set to hit the open market as a free agent this summer.

Babcock to Seattle?

The GM of the new Seattle franchise, Ron Francis was asked what he’s looking for in a coach and this is his quote from the most recent 31 Thoughts blog,

“The most critical thing for me is the experience,”

Both Pierre LeBrun (The Athletic/TSN) and Jared Clinton (The Hockey News) recently wrote about this as well.

BLH’s Thoughts: Well, you can’t get much more experienced than Mike Babcock, but would he want to join an expansion team? I could argue that he’d be much more comfortable with Ron Francis as his GM than Kyle Dubas was and he’d have a hand in building the team he prefers. To add to that, since the rules are going to be the same for this expansion as they were for the Vegas one, there’s a good chance that Seattle is going to get some good players. Not sure they’ll get the kind of trade offers that the Golden Knights did this time around though.

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Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Michael Sifeldeen, NHL, Trades

Someone’s In Big Trouba

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Okay, before you beat me up and take my lunch money for that pun that doesn’t even really work if you read it out loud, let’s just talk about a few things. A recap, if you will, of a rather eventful few days at a point in the offseason not really close to any major events, when we as hockey writers have to just take it upon ourselves to manufacture controversy wherever we can. I will gladly shoulder that burden.

Oh hey, Sexbom
  • By now, we’re all painfully aware of the comments made by Klefbom in regard to Hall and his play against tough competition, and how it was in all likelihood someone in the Oilers organization who made him “clarify” those comments the next morning, when they became a whole lot more politically correct and a whole lot less about Hall
  • Tyson Barrie is going to be an Avalanche… Avalancher?.. for the foreseeable future and not, in fact, an Oiler. Boo-urns.
  • Jacob Trouba and Winnipeg management are “far apart on money, term, and usage”, according to comments made by TSN’s Gary Lawless on “That’s Hockey” on Tuesday

But what does it all mean, man?

Well, a few things, maybe:

  • The Cubs are still not going to win the World Series
  • If one more goddamn Pidgey breaks out of one of my pokeballs, I’m deleting Pokémon Go for good
  • Maybe Klefbom gets traded to Winnipeg for Trouba?

I know, I know, that’s ridiculous. I’ll never delete Pokémon Go. So let’s talk about why the Oilers and the Jets do this trade.

Anyone who’s been paying attention the last few years knows that Peter Chiarelli absolutely does not care at all about your opinion when it comes to who he gets rid of from an organization. Phil Kessel, Tyler Seguin, and Taylor Hall can all attest to that. He also has no time for guys who he feels are sources of “character problems” inside or outside the locker room. Do Klef’s comments put him firmly on Chia’s shit list? Who knows. But if the rumours are true that he was the one who got on the phone and laid down the law, you’ve got to think there’s tension there.

Enter, the Winnipeg Jets and their inability to retain young talent long-term. There’s an argument to be made that the Jets are under-utilizing one of their best defensive assets, and it’s probably pissing him off, especially if they’re trying to lowball him on his well-earned bridge contract. Jacob is watching Dustin “The Brandon Davidson Killer” Byfuglien lumber around with a $7.6M contract until 2021 and he wants to get his, too. I reckon he’s asking for something like a $6Mx4 and guaranteed PP minutes, and the Jets don’t want to pony up just yet, on term or price.

I hate this guy

Maybe a guy like Klefbom, locked in at under $4.2M for the next 6 seasons looks pretty appealing to Winnipeg right now. Maybe the Oilers take a shot on Trouba (who is pretty much a known quantity at this point, who stays healthier than poor Klef has historically) and give him the $6M he wants for a few years. We’ll be shedding some anchors soon with all the money tied up in Ference and Nikitin, and we have almost $8.5M in cap space left as it is. Woodguy (one half of the very cool WoodMoney stat co-created by BLH’s own G Money) loves the guy, and he’s a lot smarter than me and has the fancystats to prove what an asset Trouba would be. The Oilers so desperately need defencemen who consistently maintain possession and drive offense, which is Jacob’s specialty. Now, that’s not to say the numbers indicate that Klefbom doesn’t do that — because he definitely does — but what I’m saying is that we wouldn’t necessarily miss him all that much. (I mean, I would miss just looking at him at the very least, and these top Google suggestions would seem to indicate the Edmonton area would share my pain.)

 

But we’ll plop BDavey on the top line on Larsson’s wing and let them just be awesome and rock solid together and out-Corsi everyone in the Pacific. Look at what it does to our defensive lineups:

Davidson – Larsson
Sekera- Trouba
Nurse – Fayne/Oesterle

Holy smokes, right? That’s an objectively awesome defensive lineup. And cheap, too! Dare I say it, that’s a playoff d-core.

And all because Klefbom shot his mouth off a bit to the Swedish press. It sure is nice here in perpetual optimism land, where the glass is always half full and this year is always our year!

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Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Micah Kowalchuk, NHL, Trades

How Much Does a Right-Handed Defenseman Go For Anyway…

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So, at this point of the year, we’re left wondering with these two questions.  First, what is a quality Top-6 NHL winger worth, and second, what is the going price for a quality Top-4 right-handed defenseman.

In an effort to answer these burning questions while I wait for the snow to melt so I can start golfing, because, well, that’s what us Oilers fans do in the spring, here’s my best guess.

To do this, we can essentially just look at the deals for defensemen, there’s really only been 8 deals involving high-end right-handed defensemen in recent history, and here’s how they break down:

  • Jason Demers, originally a 7th round pick, had played parts of 6 seasons with the San Jose Sharks when he was dealt to the Dallas Stars for a 3rd round pick and Brenden Dillon. At that point of his career, he could safely be considered a 4/5 defenseman who has flourished in Dallas with more opportunity;
    • He was dealt for a defenseman who was younger and considered to have more upside at the time, and who was 6’3 225lbs.
  • Kevin Shattenkirk, in his first season with the Avalanche, was dealt along with a 2nd round pick and Chris Stewart, at the time considered a Top-6 NHL power forward, for Erik Johnson, a first round pick, and a depth forward;
    • Once again, we have defensemen going both ways in this deal as a balance, and both were considered quality young defensemen with high upside;
  • Matt Niskanen was dealt, along with James Neal, to the Pittsburgh Penguins for Alex Goligoski, who at the time was considered a potentially premier offensive defenseman;
    • Again, we see a defenseman for a defenseman swap, with the better defensemen resulting in the inclusion of a scoring winger;
  • Tyler Myers, along with pending UFA winger Drew Stafford, a pair of prospects and a first round pick to the Winnipeg Jets for Evander Kane and Zack Bogosian;
    • Once again we see scoring forwards to balance the deal in favour of who gets the better defenseman, but again there are defensemen moving in the deal;

Now, to look at the deals where no other defensemen were involved:

  • Brent Burns for Devin Setoguchi and a first. Now, it has to be noted here, Burns was as much a winger as a defenseman at this time, and therefore was dealt for another winger with an included draft pick;
  • Dustin Byfuglien (along with Ben Eager, Brent Sopel and Akim Aliu) for a 1st, 2nd, and a selection of depth forwards. Once again, Byfuglien was considered as much a power forward, and therefore his price was more along the lines of a scoring forward;
  • Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen. This was the most recent move, where a larger 1st line center was moved for a player who, although having potential, was a 2nd pairing right-hand defenseman on his team;
  • Johnny Boychuk for two 2nds and a conditional 3rd. It has to be noted that the Islanders caught Boston in a bad cap situation and was able to take advantage of it due to their cap space. This deal, although fans scream for the Oilers to make a similar one, was lighting in a bottle and is unlikely to be duplicated;
  • Dougie Hamilton was dealt for a 1st and two 2nd round picks when he didn’t sign his RFA deal;

So, to summarize, we can discount the Boychuk deal as a rarity, and we can consider the Burns and Byfuglien deals to essential be for forwards (at the time).  That leaves us with the various deals where they are essentially Best Defensemen in the Deal for Scoring Forward and Lesser Defenseman, and then the deal of a 2nd pairing with potential Defenseman for a Top-3 Center.  This shows us how much value is generally placed on a right-handed defenseman, and we can expect one of our younger left-handed defenseman will be going alongside any winger we deal to obtain such a right-handed defenseman.

Now, one can debate the quality of players such as Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov or Taylor Hall, but as becomes clear, no one deals a quality right-handed defenseman for a winger unless a secondary defenseman was included.  Goligoski for Niskanen and Neal are an example of this.  The only real exception would be the Burns scenario, which would still place a rough price of approximately Jordan Eberle and our first round pick to make that deal happen.  Essentially, any deal the Oilers do will probably have to include one of Oesterle, Davidson or even Klefbom along with a winger to get that quality right-side defenseman, or else our first-round pick plus a winger.  The only exception would be if the Oilers chose to deal Nugent-Hopkins, who may at best on his own fetch a right-handed defenseman with “potential”.

What do you think, let us know in the comments below! And please don’t forget to subscribe to our Youtube Channel and our Soundcloud page!

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Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors, Trades

A Changing of the Oilers Rearguard

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Have you ever wondered what would happen if Cam Talbot or Anders Nilsson got hurt or Connor McDavid for that matter? Well I’ll lay it out for you nice a simple…. The wins would start to dry up… The Oilers’ defence is simply not good enough and there are some bodies that need to be moved out and some brought in. And that my friends is what we’re going to discuss today. A changing of the rearguard.

At the time of writing the Oilers are 7th in the NHL for shots against per game. Meaning they’re the 7th worst team in the league for allowing shots on the net. They’re also the 6th worst team in the league for giveaways but the 3rd best team in takeaways. Not to pile it on and this has nothing to do with the defensemen themselves but they’re the 2nd worst team in the league to date on faceoffs winning a measly 45.9%…

I’d say they’re pretty lucky to be at three wins and 4 losses right now.

But getting back to the defence. Just from the eye test I’m seeing problems with almost all of the veterans more specifically Mark Fayne and that’s who we’re going to focus on right now.

Fayne seems to be way out of his depth, I don’t know if it’s the way McLellan is using him or he’s not used to this kind of system or maybe he’s just unable to do what the coach is asking of him. He’s been in the NHL long enough that he should be able to adapt to whatever changes the coaching staff makes to the team’s style of play be it breakouts, defensive zone coverage, or special teams. But to me it seems he’s getting eaten alive out there more often than not.

But that’s not what the numbers are telling us. Sure he’s -4 and according to his PDO from Puckalytics.com (97.1) he’s not getting many breaks there either. His Corsi For % sits at 48.1% and that’s not bad for a dman that is getting the tough starts and is constantly getting put out against the other team’s best lines. If we looked at last year’s stats a 48.1 would put him in the Andy Green or Dennis Seidenberg area. Last season Faybe ended with a 46.2 CF% which place him around the likes of Niklas Grossman, Tom Gilbert, and Alexei Emelin.

But what does his Corsi Against tell us? That might open things up a bit as to why he looks a bit under par. Last season he had a 56.0 CA/60 and this season so far that number has gone up to 59.8 but he’s not the worst. Eric Gryba is at 62.9 followed by Andrej Sekera at 60.1. They’re leaking shots…

Now look, you don’t want your defense giving up shot attempts the clip those three are doing it at. The best in the NHL at it are the Los Angeles Kings. Drew Doughty and Jake Muzzin are masters of the CA/60… They’re possession “Kings” of you will. The pair averaged around a 46.0 CA/60 last season and a 57 CF%… Damn good if you ask me and something the Oilers should thrive to achieve with their defenders.

It’s early in the year yet so we can expect all of those numbers to change but for the sake of getting in too deep with the numbers, let’s leave them where they are and figure out a way to improve the personnel on the back end of this Oilers team.

As we talked about on yesterdays Oilers Rig Podcast, there is going to have to be a sacrifice now that the team is experimenting with a harder and heavier element on that top line. Well “have to be” is a bit strong a term, I think a consideration will be made at that spot after Jordan Eberle is 100% healthy. IF the line is producing then just as the sun rises everyday, that line must be kept intact. But (folks this is a real possibility here) if that line fails to click in the system that Todd McLellan is attempting to instill, expect someone to be moved. And as I’ve spoken of before, the two options are Eberle and Yakupov.

Seeing either of those players moved would be akin to a swift boot to the nuts. Not something anyone would enjoy particularly. But if that kick to the junk got you $10 million dollars, you might consider it and that’s what I’m speaking to here. No matter how much you want it Oilers fans, you’re not going to get what you expect in return for these players. You’re not going to get a 30 goal scorer in return for Jordan Eberle and you’re not going to get a player that is equal to that of Nail Yakupov either. I imagine fans are still looking at and using Yakupov’s draft pedigree as some place to draw a line in the sand regarding his trade value. But that’s not how it’s done. His value probably lies somewhere around the middle-6 forward or 2nd pairing defenceman if not a sub top ten first round pick and a prospect.

What we do know today is Yakupov is making a lot of people happy with his chemistry alongside McDavid. The two lead the team in scoring for Pete’s sake! The other thing we know is that Hall and Nuge are a pair that shouldn’t be separated. And Lastly, we know that forwards work in pairs not trios. The days of the Stastny brothers and the French Connection have been over for some time now and aren’t coming back.

Ipso facto Eberle is out. He’s out because if this new heavy forechecking in the offensive zone is a real direction the team wants to go, Eberle won’t cut it. He’s not tailored for that game and you can’t expect Hall and Nuge to do that 82 games a year and come out unscathed. Another player has to do it for them for the sake of their health if anything.

So where do we go from here? We go to Winnipeg and try and work out a deal for Dustin Byfuglien. Why Big Buff? Well consider these reasons:

  • What are the Oilers lacking on the PP? A huge bomb from the point.
  • What are the Oilers lacking on the blueline? A defender that can play 25 minutes a night and destroy the opposition.
  • How much more than the Eberle’s $6M will Byfuglien be asking for? $7M, $7.5M? He’s making $5.2M now and at season’s end he’ll be 31. Is he worth the $7 million that folks were willing to give Brent Seabrook per year long term?
  • Potentially there’ll be a lot of salary opening up this summer. Purcell, Gazdic, Klinkhammer, Miller, Gryba, Nikitin and Scrivens are coming off the books. That’s about $12 or $13 million set to be freed up with onlyTalbot, Nilsson, Jultz, and a few prospects needing to be signed.

So those are three VERY compelling reasons to go for the Jets defender apart from the highlight reel of hits above. But does Eberle fit there? What would a potential deal built around Eberle and Byfuglien mean for a player like Nik Ehlers? Would he be able to switch to LW and thus give center Mark Scheifele some very talented wingers to play with?

What are the Jets plans for their own defence. Losing Byfuglien would certainly open up a hole but is that something they’re anticipating? Could Jacob Trouba fill the void and therefore welcome the highly regarded Josh Morrisey to the squad? It’s worth pondering.

But all of this does nothing to the current core apart from add another NHL body to the contract list. So with that said I heard that Scott Howson was scouting the Islanders/Blue Jackets game the other day and a report came out detailing a Cam Atkinson to the New Jersey Devils for Adam Larsson trade. Not only that but yet another post was published on The Hockey Writers discussing the Blue Jackets trade options at this point, you can view that here.

Now I’m seeing all of this and I’m hearing that the Blue Jackets are in the market for a defensive defenseman. The Oilers have two on the roster right now, Mark Fayne/Andrew Ference, and three if you include Nikita Nikitin within the definition of defenceman.

Listen below to what Jonathan Willis said on Lowetide’s show about which veterans tend to stick around when a new GM is hired. Skip to the 25:50 mark for the comment.

 

<—- Looking at Columbus’ d-core right now, it’s nothing to brag to your buddies about and I can see why they’d want to shake things up but if their goalie would stop doing his best impression of Devan Dubnyk circa 2013 they might win a few of these games.

So if I’m looking at players that simply don’t fit here, I’m looking at Goloubef, Prout and Tyutin as the sacrificial lambs. Ryan Murray is in the Nail Yakupov category of players meaning there’s a part of you that wants to move him but  you can’t because he was a high draft pick and there’s so much “potential” left to be had. Can’t see them moving on from Jack Johnson and Savard just signed a new deal.

Where do the Oilers come in? Well I suppose Fayne and Ference’s experience could come in handy. I think that the Blue Jackets would love to move on from Prout here and they’ve got about three and a half million in salary available, so what if they picked up Mark Fayne and tossed him up with Ryan Murray, demoted Goloubef to 3rd pairing and sent Prout packing?

What would the return from Columbus be? Well you’re probably not going to like it. It’d probably be right winger Rene Bourque unless the Oilers are adding on, which they very well could do given the amount of bodies they’ve got developing in Bakersfield. What would it take to pry a player like Oliver Bjorkstrand (RW) or Kerby Rychel (LW) out of Columbus? Oilers Director of Player Personnel Bob Green would be very familiar with Bjorkstrand given Green’s team in Junior (Edmonton Oil Kings) and Bjorkstrand’s team (Portland Winterhawks) squared up in some vicious playoff series’ a few years ago. But even then, would you give them another defenceman like Justin Schultz and bring Darnell Nurse up or would you deal some prospects ahead of Jultz? He is an NHL defenceman after all.

If the Oilers started the new year minus Jordan Eberle, Mark Fayne, Justin Schultz and prospects or draft picks; brought in Dustin Byfuglien, Rene Bourque, Kerby Rychel/Oliver Bjorkstrand AND had Darnell Nurse on the big team’s roster, would that be worth it to you if Edmonton could re-sign Byfuglien?

Let me know in the comments below!

Take Care!

BLH