All posts by Micah Kowalchuk

Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Micah Kowalchuk, NHL, Rumors, Trades

Plans B, C, and D

Well, it’s that time of year again that the Oilers begin searching for right-handed defensemen.  Now, we all know about the high-value targets like Hamonic, or the RFAs like Vatanen and Trouba, or the guys with one year left on their deal with high value like Shattenkirk or Burns.  However, even if the Oilers obtain someone who might be considered elite, there’s still a missing hole to address on the second pairing.  It might be that the Oilers manage to land two of this list, but if they don’t, the Oilers need a backup plan.

Assuming the best odds are landing a player like Hamonic, it means the Oilers need a second pairing defenseman with high powerplay skills who’s naturally a right side defenseman.  Now, for this spot, we’re not necessarily looking for a long-term player, but an older (and still effective) defenseman.  Likely, to get a good deal, they’ll have high dollars on their contract but short term.

The targets who fit this are:

Dennis Wideman, 33 years old, natural RHD, with one year left at $5.25mil
Cody Franson, 28 years old, natural RHD, with one year left at $3.325mil
Dan Girardi, 31 years old, natural RHD, with far too many years left at $5.7mil
Mark Streit, 38 years old, left handed defenseman who can play right side, one year left at $5.25mil
Matthew Carle, 31 years old, left handed defenseman who can play right side, two years left at $5.5mil
James Wisniewski, 32 years old, natural RHD with one year left at $5.5mil

First off, let’s eliminate the ones with too many years left.  That means you, Dan Girardi.

The rest have either one or two years left, and with the exception of Franson, are all in the $5.25-$5.5mil range, which the Oilers can afford under the cap.

Now, as a comparator, we’ll use the Oilers existing top right-hand defenseman, the much maligned Mark Fayne.  Let’s see how they stack up…

I won’t go into detailed analysis of each option, we’ll use a simple warrior chart (courtesy of ownthepuck.blogspot.ca) to narrow the list.

First, Dennis Wideman:

So, what do we see here?  Wideman is a very good point producer, especially relative to Fayne, but he’s a black hole defensively who doesn’t even have 3rd pairing defensive skills.  Ok, this isn’t a great solution, he goes in the no pile.

Next up, Cody Franson:

Well, although his offense (surprisingly since he was considered an offensive defenseman) isn’t all that good, his defensive numbers are all very good, and he still provides far more offense than Mark Fayne.  He’s on the 3rd pairing in Buffalo due to Bogosian’s place on the 2nd pair, and Ristolainen’s hard charge up to be the top pairing guy, but he’d be a defensive upgrade on Fayne and his assists at least are second pairing level. Sure, his overall goals and points per 60 isn’t really at a 2nd pairing level, but this is compensated by his top-two defensive play.This player would be an upgrade, and his contract price is agreeable.  We’ll put him in the yes pile.

Next, Mark Streit:

Ok, so he’s older, and he is valuable to Philly, but from the sounds of it they may need the cap space, and they need to upgrade their Top-6 scoring desperately.  As we can see, other than shot suppression, he’s a very good overall defenseman and would be an elite second pairing option, even at his age.   He also goes into the yes pile, he’d be a good mentor and he can still run a powerplay.

After that, Matthew Carle:

Well.. Decent offense..  Brutal defense..   Shows how good Victor Hedman is that he’s basically carrying Carle this playoffs on the top pairing.. This is a clear pass..

Lastly, we have James Wisniewski:

Well, he’s not much of a goal suppressor, but past that, his stats are either second pairing level (for goal generation and shot supression) or first pairing level.  This is a player who can be considered a very quality second-pairing option, and one who can slide into a top pairing and probably perform well with a solid partner.  He’d be a serious upgrade on the second pairing, and if worst came to worse, we could call him a top pairing option next to Klefbom for next season.

So, we have Cody Franson, Mark Streit, and James Wisniewski left.

Of those three, any of them would be upgrades on the second pairing, with Franson or Streit fitting in well here.  Wisniewski, however, might be an intriguing option for the top pairing if the other options fall through, and he’d definitely be worth going after for our second pairing.

Now, when it comes to Streit or Wisniewski, both teams would want scoring.  It’s a weakness for Philly and Carolina right now.  In the case of Streit, Philly could use a winger with size, and they need some cap savings.  Here, the option might be to dangle Benoit Pouliot.  Although he’s a frequent whipping boy for the Oilers, he’s aggressive, skilled, and at a $4mil cap hit would be a $1.5mil savings for the Flyers.  He’s familiar with the East, and he’s the type of player who might fit in well for their system.  Right now, he’s slotting in as the 3rd line LW for the Oilers, so he’s a good player to deal here.

Looking at Carolina, this is a team wanting scoring, and they’d ideally like a scoring center.  However, Nugent-Hopkins is an overpay here, but we do have a scoring forward and a replacement veteran right side defenseman that may pique their interest.  If we were to send them Mark Fayne, along with Nail Yakupov, their combined salaries are roughly equivalent to the Wiz himself.  Carolina would get some possible Top-6 scoring to add to their mix, as well as a replacement defenseman with low term and a low hit who has thrived in the East before.  This, again, may interest them, although it’s hard to say what they’d want for a player who essentially has never played a game for him.  When he was dealt from Columbus to Anaheim, he brought back an overpriced Top-9 forward, a forward prospect and a 2nd round pick.  When he was sent to Carolina, Anaheim took a backup goaltender in trade, since he turned out to be a bad fit in Anaheim he was “sold low”.  I’d guess that a Yakupov + Fayne for Wisniewski and someone who could step in for the Oilers at 3C would be a workable deal here for both teams.

Lastly, when it comes to Franson, Buffalo’s ok on forward, but they could use some potential on the left side of their defense.  We have some potential on our left side in Jordan Oesterle, Joey LaLeggia, Dillon Simpson, and the like who could probably convince Buffalo to make a deal here.

Now, I’ll admit, these aren’t the sexy names we’re looking for.  Having said that, what if the Oilers did all 3 deals?  We deal Benoit Pouliot, Mark Fayne, Nail Yakupov, and Jordan Oesterle, and we obtain the Wiz, Streit and Franson and some form of 3rd line center.

Our defense is now:

Klefbom-Wisniewski
Sekera-Streit
Davidson-Franson

And we let Nurse go down and dominate in the AHL for a season.

Total cost on the back-end..  Well, Franson and Fayne are a salary wash, so we’re adding about $11 million in salary there.  Subtract Gryba and Nikitin from that, we’re adding about $5 million to the back-end.

At forward, we’re subtracting about $6.5 million also, and functionally we lose our 3rd line LW and our 3rd line RW, although both could be considered Top-6 players for their new clubs, it’s a price the Oilers can afford to pay.

So, we end up with a bit of cap room, and the forward core doesn’t take much of a hit.  Optimally, we’d land that true “1st pairing” guy in a big deal, and then land Wisniewski, Franson or Streit (in that order) for the second pairing, and the 3rd can have a few options.

I’ll ask you sport fans.  Although that D doesn’t have the star we want, they’d likely be a damn sight better on the powerplay, penalty kill and 5 on 5, and we wouldn’t be giving up anything high dollar to get them.  Let me know your thoughts!

 

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Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Micah Kowalchuk, NHL

Pro-rating the Best vs The (Almost) Worst

So, it’s the end of the season, and we’re consoling ourselves with the fact the Oilers were injured all season.  But, what if they weren’t injured.. What would the numbers have looked like?  In that spirit, I’ve pro-rated all the Oilers for a full-season as compared to the same thing with the Washington Capitals.  Now of course, this is not a statistically accurate representation of a dozen other possible variables, so take it for what it is, an “idea” of how they could have performed.

Step 1, we need to pick our “healthy roster”.  In that vein:

Maroon-McDavid-Eberle

Hall-Draisaitl-Yakupov

Pouliot-RNH-Kassian

Korpikoski-Letestu-Hendricks

On defense:

Klefbom-Sekera

Davidson-Gryba

Oesterle-Clendening

We will go with the idea both Nurse and Pakarinen would have stayed in the minors if there were no injuries.  That also might apply to Oesterle, but we’ll pretend he gets called up earlier if Schultz was gone as a puck mover.  Points-wise, this is a more-or-less realistic roster, but that can always be debated.

Now, here’s the pro-rating:

Line 1: Maroon (72 points)-McDavid (87 points)-Eberle (56 points)

Line 2: Hall (65 points)-Draisaitl (58 points)-Yakupov (31 points)

Line 3: Pouliot (54 points)-RNH (51 points)-Kassian (18 points)

Line 4: Korpikoski (25 points)-Letestu (25 points)-Hendricks (14 points)

P1: Klefbom (33 points) – Sekera (30 points)

P2: Davidson (18 points) – Gryba (9 points)

P3: Oesterle (24 points) – Clendening (25 points)

What jumps out?  Well, our right side at forward isn’t great at all, whereas our left side and center are both pretty strong.  On defense, we definitely lack that power-play quarterback, and overall there’s not much scoring available there.  If we swapped Pardy for Davidson he pro-rates to 27 points, and if we bring Nurse in he’d have 12 points, and Fayne would have 8 points.  So, again, our left-side defense (since Sekera’s also technically a lefty) looks pretty good, and our natural right-siders (outside of Clendening) have very minimal scoring capability.  That’s the Oilers in a nutshell, weak down the right.

Now, let’s see how Washington compares..  This is easier because, well, they’ve had far far less injuries and their lines were more stable

Their lines are:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Oshie

Burakovsky-Kuznetsov-Williams

Chimera-Johansson-Wilson

Winnik-Richards-Beagle

Orpik-Carlson

Alzner-Niskanen

Schmidt-Orlov

And, if we pro-rate:

L1: Ovechkin (74 points)-Backstrom (77 points)-Oshie (52 points)

L2: Burakovsky (39 points)-Kuznetsov (77 points)-Williams (52 points)

L3: Chimera (40 points)-Johansson (51 points)-Wilson (23 points)

L4: Winnik (21 points)-Richards (11 points)-Beagle (24 points)

P1: Orpik (20 points)-Carlson (57 points)

P2: Alzner (21 points)-Niskanen (32 points)

P3: Schmidt (18 points)-Orlov (29 points)

Ok, so let’s see..  Down the left the Oilers have arguable better talent than Washington, although that buys Maroon looking like Ovechkin thanks to McDavid.  Still, the Oilers look pretty solid on the left side of forward.  Down the middle, there’s more firepower at 2C than the Oilers have, but overall the middle doesn’t look all that bad either.  Looking down the right side, we see Eberle holds his own, but behind Eberle there’s a major drop-off in scoring by the Oilers down the right for the forwards, clearly a weakness there.

Looking on the back end, the Oilers actually have more talent on the left side when it comes to scoring potential, since Washington has most of their firepower on the right side.  Having said that, the Oilers lack anyone close to a power-play quarterback like Carlson, and if we set 18 points as the cut-off line, the Oilers iced 3 guys this year who pro-rate under that, one who pro-rates to that, and of the guys who pro-rate over 18 points, none of them should be on a 2nd pairing right now (Oesterle, Clendening and Pardy).

So, we’d have a very competitive defense with a Klefbom-(a guy who’s good for 45 points), Sekera-(a righty who can put up 20-some points), Oesterle-Clendening.

Going forward, it looks like the Oilers really need a new 2nd line RW and maybe a 3rd line RW (we can slide Kassian to the 4th line and it looks pretty good), and we need a 1st pairing RHD and a 2nd pairing RHD.

Who gets deleted in this formula?

Line 1: Maroon-McDavid-Eberle

Line 2: Hall-Draisaitl-(deletion, probably Laine or Puljujarvi here)

Line 3: Pouliot-RNH-(deletion)

Line 4: Korpikoski-Letestu-Kassian

So, the Oilers are one forward off once they draft a RW, and they can trade Hendricks and Yakupov off and maybe plug in a guy like Pakarinen there (pro-rated to 17 points).

On the back end,

Sekera-(deletion)

Klefbom-(deletion)

Oesterle-Clendening

Here, the Oilers are a little more hurting.  They only have Fayne and Oesterle to trade here, and could use two upgrades for the spot.

What does that mean for the pro-rated model? Well, Jason Demers pro-rates to 30 points (about his career number), so maybe you plug him in to that top-pairing with Sekera.  The numbers are a little low for the right side, but the left side is higher, so it works out not too bad.  We have a top pairing with 60 points versus 77 points.

On the second pair, one can pray that Yakupov and Davidson could get a guy like Vatanen, although it might be adding in a pretty solid pick on the Oilers part to seal the deal.  Vatanen pro-rates to 44 points, and Klefbom 30, so our second pair checks in at 77 points to Washington’s 54 points.  That closes up the gap with their top pairing.

Now, on our 3rd pairing, we have 49 points to their 47 points.  Pretty even now.

We end up with this as our (theoretical) 2016-2017 Oilers Roster:

Line 1: Maroon-McDavid-Eberle

Line 2: Hall-Draisaitl-Laine

Line 3: Pouliot-RNH-Pakarinen

Line 4: Korpikoski-Letestu-Kassian

Pair 1: Sekera-Demers

Pair 2: Klefbom-Vatanen

Pair 3: Oesterle-Clendening

Now, this completely ignores the fancy stats, points/60, time on ice, and a billion other things needed to conclude this roster would actually be better, but it gives you an idea how the Oilers, overall, compare to the best club in the league, and shows two basic things:

  1. We do not have very good right-wingers. I know, I put Hendricks on that line, but he was used in that capacity. Overall, the Oilers need a Top-6 RW (2 if they deal Eberle) and a Bottom-6 RW
  2. The Oilers desperately need a skill infusion on the right side of their defense as we all know, and it’s even more apparent when you look at our production numbers. We have some defensemen who really lack puck movement ability, and we need two guys like that to plug into our Top-4

Thanks for reading and flame on below!

Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Micah Kowalchuk, NHL, Prospects, Trades

Looking for Love in all the Right Places

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So, Rexall is officially closed, we’ll be drafting somewhere in the Top-5, and the search continues for a right-handed defenseman.  We’ve all heard and endlessly discussed the idea of obtaining Trouba, Vatanen, Shattenkirk, Hamonic, or signing Demers, however, there’s a few teams out there we haven’t really looked at who might be more natural trade partners.

Now, although right now the Oilers aren’t exactly high on this list (we’re 26th in league scoring), we can presume with a healthy club, they would be better than this.  Having said that, we’re going looking for right-handed defensemen, and what we have to sell are scoring Top-6 forwards, so our natural trade partners are those teams with even more scoring issues.  Those are Carolina (2.40 goals/game), Toronto (2.34), Vancouver (2.25) and New Jersey (2.19).  We can also note that Vancouver and New Jersey, from that list, don’t have any young scoring D to give up, because those two clubs are the only teams in the NHL without a single defenseman in the Top-60 in scoring this year.  So, we can probably write both of them off as logical trade partners.

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That leaves us with Toronto and Carolina.  However, Toronto’s not exactly deep on the back end, and they have plenty of forwards with potential so they’re unlikely to give up anything we really need on defense.  That leaves us with Carolina.  Now, this team is rumored to be relocated to Quebec City in the off-season, which may be true, or may not.  What it likely means is they’re going to be looking for scoring help either way, and they have a talented young defense group.

First, what high ticket prospects do the Hurricanes have?  There’s Sebastian Aho, a left-winger drafted in 2015, who may make the NHL next season.  There’s Alex Nedeljkovic, a hot goalie prospect drafted in 2014.  And there’s Haydn Fleury, a 1st round pick from 2014, who’s a 6’3 207lb left-shooting defenseman (why are they always lefties…).

Now, next question, what is their existing roster?

As of the last game, this is their forward and defensive roster

Line 1:  Joakim Nordstrom (RFA)-Jordan Staal-Patrick Brown (RFA)

  • Nordstrom has 23 points in 63 games, and is a natural center who spent some time in Chicago. His NHL totals are 29 points in 123 games, and his scoring totals in the Swedish Elite League and the AHL are underwhelming. This is a bottom-6 forward
  • Staal is one of those players who is an ok left-shooting 2C or an elite 3C, but other than a few 50 point seasons with a loaded Pittsburgh team, he trends as a 40-point two-way center and should not be a team’s first line center
  • Brown is a right-shooting center who has never been a point per game at any level of his career, and had 10 points in 60 AHL games last season, and 23 in 66 this season. Another bottom-6 player who should not be in an NHL top-6

Line 2: Jeff Skinner-Victor Rask (RFA) -Riley Nash

  • Jeff Skinner is the leading scorer for the team with 50 points in 80 games, and is a pure left-winger. He’s had a 30 goal season before, but has had concussion issues. Having said that, he’s the star of this offense.
  • Victor Rask has had a very good year for a very bad team with 47 points in 78 games, and he did hit a point per game in his WHL career two seasons in a row (essentially). His one long AHL season was unspectacular, but he’s been improving at the NHL level, and as a right-shooting center he has the versatility to slide over to the right-wing or play center, preferably as a 2C.
  • Nash had some good success in the ECAC, and an ok performance at the AHL level, but his NHL numbers have been unspectacular and have remained in the 20-point range. He’s a right shooting center who is also better suited to a bottom-6 role.

Line 3: Chris Terry (UFA) -Elias Lindholm-Derek Ryan

  • Terry is a classic depth player, nothing here to really analyze
  • Lindholm is a right-shooting center with potential also, and has had a 39 point and a 37 point NHL season, so we can call him a solid 2nd line player or a very good 3rd line player.
  • Ryan is also a right-shot center who’s had good AHL numbers, but he’s a 29-year-old rookie, he’s their equivalent of Andrew Miller, he’s a depth scoring addition at best.

Line 4: Nathan Gerbe (UFA) -Jay McClement-Brad Malone (UFA)

  • These are all old-school NHL veterans playing bottom-6 roles, nothing to see here

Pair 1: Jacoob Slavin-Justin Faulk

Pair 2: Noah Hanifin-Brett Pesce

Pair 3: Ron Hainsey-Ryan Murphy (RFA)

Depth defenseman: Michal Jordan (RFA)

And they have James Wisniewski, Andrej Nestrasil, Phil Di Giuseppe on injury reserve

Now, the Hurricanes have 6 forwards, 6 defensemen and 1 goalie under contract for next season, using only $38 million of their cap, so they have room for a major retooling at forward.

So, looking at their Top-6, the following players can be considered Top-6 capable:

  • Jordan Staal (left-shot center), Jeff Skinner (left wing), Victor Rask (right-shot center), Elias Lindholm (right-shot center).  We can pencil in Sebastian Aho here as a potential left-winger, and the Hurricanes will probably get a decent player in the draft, but not likely one of the NHL ready Top-3 players.
  • Of that list, Skinner can be considered a first line left-winger, and we could consider Rask a first line right winger, and on the second line we could see an Aho-Staal-Lindholm second line. There’s been talk about how much help the Hurricanes need on the wings, but more than anything, they need a first line center (to replace Eric Stall’s theoretical role) who can handle a scoring role.
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So, the player they need would be Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.  Sure, if the Oilers once again win the NHL draft, there’s more trade options involving Leon Draisaitl or Auston Matthews, but we can assume they’ll keep both if they can.

Now, the Hurricanes suddenly look much better if we pencil in this Top-6: Skinner-RNH-Rask, Aho-Staal-Lindholm.  Sure, it’s not spectacular, but it’s significantly better than what they had, and a player like RNH would adapt well to the East.  So, we know we have a piece they can use, the question is then whether they have anything we could use.

Looking at their back end, we know we need a Top-2 caliber player if we deal RNH.  Before we assume we need a RHD however, there are options on the table to deal a guy like Klefbom for a guy like Hamonic, so we can work with finding a Top-2 left handed defenseman.  However, anyone we find has to be able to put up some points on the back.

First, let’s look at Brett Pesce.  He’s a 21-year-old right-shot defenseman, 6’3 200lbs.  All of that looks promising.  And in a brief AHL audition this year he had 3 points in 3 games, also promising.  However, his Hockey East numbers don’t indicate an elite defenseman, and he’s not overly physical.  This year he has 16 in 67 NHL games.  In short, he’s not the kind of guy we take in a deal for RNH.

Next up, Ron Hainsey.  We can stop there, he’s 35 years old and on their bottom pairing.  This isn’t a fit.

From there, we have our obvious target, Justin Faulk.  He’s on their top pairing, he’s a right handed shot, he leads their defense in scoring, and, well, yeah, let’s be realistic, this team lacks scoring on the back end also, and he’s by far their top defenseman and their best right hand defenseman by a mile.  They aren’t going to deal him to us for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and they need him more than they need a skill winger.  If we’re talking Matthews or Draisaitl they’ll pick up the phone, but that’s about it.

So, that leaves us with the alternative scenario I proposed, looking for a high end left-handed defenseman that allows us to deal an Oscar Klefbom for a Travis Hamonic (or the left-handed guy we get here for one).  Now, the Hurricanes have two possibilities here, Jaccob Slavin or Noah Hanifin.  First, let’s look at Slavin:

  • Had a good college season where he had 25 in 32 for Colorado in the NCHC, led the team in scoring as a freshman, was on the all-conference first-team. Had 7 points in 14 AHL games this season. Has 20 in 61 in the NHL for his first season.
  • Was a 4th round pick in 2012.
  • 6’2 205lbs and he’s 21.
  • Is considered to be a solid two-way defenseman with Top-4 potential

Ok, he looks like a solid player.  Having said that, he’s also their top-pairing left-side defenseman at the moment, and I’m not sure he has all that high of a ceiling, at least not high enough of one to justify trading away RNH for him.  We walk away from this deal.

This takes us to our logical trade target, Noah Hanifin.  He was the #5 overall draft pick last year, and made the NHL as a rookie at 19 years old.  He had 23 in 37 games in his rookie season with Hockey East, and has 20 points in 77 games as a rookie defenseman.  Now, by comparison, Ekblad had 39 points in his rookie year, but he had a better partner in Brian Campbell.  He’s viewed as a near lock as a top-pairing defenseman, and is 6’3 206lbs.  Now, I know, we all want Faulk on this team, but this is the guy Carolina can probably afford to part with to get a Top-6 center, and based on the Seth Jones trade, this is about proper value for RNH.  You can be sure the Islanders would be willing to trade Hamonic for him, and he’s got much higher upside than Klefbom as a top-pairing left defenseman.  This is the deal you try to do here.  If you do this deal and then deal off Klefbom for Hamonic, this is how the Oilers D now looks.

Pair 1:  Sekera-Hamonic

Pair 2: Hanifin-xxxxxxxx

Pair 3: Nurse-Davidson

Ok.  That’s starting to look better for sure, but we could still use that second pairing guy who has some use..  But wait, we’re not done in Carolina yet..  It so happens they have an older veteran named James Wisniewski, 32 years old, and for his career he’s tended to be a .50ppg defenseman, with no sign of regressing yet.  Now, the Hurricanes picked him up cheap, and he has one year left on a $5.5-million-dollar contract.  This is on the pricey side for this club, and he’s spent the entire season on the IR, so they’ve never really used him.  However, and this is important, he’s a right-handed shot who can move the puck.

Now, as it happens, we have a cheaper right-side defenseman who performed far better in the east named Mark Fayne.  His style would suit the Hurricanes, and he’s cheaper and younger with more term.  They might be open to this deal.  So, we end up with a Ryan Nugent-Hopkins + Mark Fayne deal in exchange for Noah Hanifin + James Wisniewski trade.  From there, that sets the Oilers up to consider a deal for Trouba or Vatanen involving a guy like Davidson along with a player like Yakupov.  Winnipeg could use cheap scoring and a cheap top-4 left-hand defenseman like Davidson, so for the sake of argument, let’s say we bring Trouba in that deal (with whatever to balance it out)

The Oilers now go into next season with the back end like this:

Pair 1: Sekera-Hamonic

Pair 2: Hanifin-Wisniewski

Pair 3: Nurse-Trouba

We now have a shut-down defenseman in Hamonic, a power-play quarterback in Wisniewski, and a strong prospect right-side defenseman in Trouba who can move up to the second pairing in a year when Wisniewski becomes a UFA (at which point maybe Bear is ready for that 3rd pairing role).  I know, this isn’t the makeover we all thought of on the back end, but one has to admit, this looks much better than we iced this season.

And then, at forward, we can assume we likely draft one of Laine or Puljujarvi, so we end up with this:

Line 1: Maroon-McDavid-Puljujarvi (all big guys who can handle even strength, powerplay and penalty kill, this is our Chicago-style first line who can do it all like Ladd-Toews-Hossa)

Line 2: Hall-Draisaitl-Eberle (I know, no defense to speak of here, but Chicago runs a pure scoring second line also of Panarin-Anisimov-Kane, they just play 5v5 and PP, no reason we can’t do the same.  And if Eberle gets traded here, assume it would be for a different winger)

Line 3: Pouliot-Santorelli-Kassian (Chicago treats their 3rd line as more of a secondary scoring line, less emphasis on the PK duties, and a 3C UFA like Santorelli could get the job done very well here for a good price)

Line 4: Hendricks-Letestu-Pakarinen (This line is the pure PK line, their job is to shut people down, like the Krueger line in Chicago, we don’t need to expect scoring from them because we have 3 other lines who can score)

So, there’s my idea for the day folks for how the Oilers could significantly overhaul their defense in a way that maybe, just maybe, our first season in the new rink could see a post-season.  Thanks for reading, flame on below

Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Fancy Stats, Micah Kowalchuk, NHL, NHL Entry Draft, Prospects, Trades

What Will It Cost the Oilers to Make the Playoffs Next Season?

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With all the talk centered around the Oilers and their need for a defenseman, and who they might deal to get it, that leaves a lot of talk about how the Top-6 should be structured next season.  On the roster as it sits right now, about all we can assume is that a line of Korpikoski-Letestu-Hendricks should be the 4th line next season, and a guy like Pakarinen as the 13th forward.  Beyond that, the Oilers have the following pieces for their top-9:  Nail Yakupov, Zach Kassian, Benoit Pouliot, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall, Patrick Maroon

Now, this much we can likely assume for the forward lines:

Maroon-McDavid-xxxxxxx

Hall-Draisaitl-xxxxxxx

xxxxx-xxxxxxxx-Kassian

Now, there’s some statistical reasons for why these players will remain, and some to do with potential, or the fact they were obtained by Chiarelli, but let’s safely assume these are the best bets to still be in these spots come next season.  That leaves out Yakupov, Pouliot, RNH, Eberle from the lineup.  Now, you might look at this and think “well, those are exactly the pieces we need to flush that Top-9 out” and, conveniently, they are, however there’s some problems with that.

First, the odds are the Oilers will probably draft in the Top-3.  If they draft 2nd or 3rd, that means they get either Patrik Laine or Jesse Puljujarvi, both of whom are hot-shot right-wing prospects.  Now, you might be thinking “well fine, but we can still deal that pick”, and if you are, I wrote a lovely article a little while back about how teams dealing their draft picks always seem to lose the deal, so let’s call that a bad choice.  Now, when it comes to these two, Laine has the higher skill-set with a shot that’s been compared to Ovechkin, and Puljujarvi is more of a playermaker with a strong two-way game.  Both are 6’3 and 200lbs or so, and both are in their second season in the Finnish Elite League, and can likely step into the NHL.

From Eliteprospects.com on Laine:

“Laine is a towering winger with a knack for scoring big goals. A good skater, albeit not the most agile forward in traffic. Has a set of soft hands combined with good vision, but prefers to use his swift and heavy shot. Able to find openings to use his shot. Definitely likes to play physical, but doesn’t get carried away by hitting the opponents. Playing in the pro ranks has matured his game considerably.”

From Eliteprospects.com on Puljujarvi:

“Puljujärvi is a big winger who combines size, skating and skill. A strong skater who can blast past the opposition in full speed. Able to use his size, reach and stickhandling skills to retain the puck in speed. A smart player at both ends of the ice, both on and off the puck. Great work ethic and positive attitude. More of a playmaker than a scorer and could improve his shooting skills. Doesn’t shy away from physical play, but could use his size more to his benefit. A truly dominant two-way force that consistently demonstrates elite hockey sense, proactive defensive awareness, and a full array of offensive tools. Comparable to Jamie Benn of the Dallas Stars, Puljujärvi owns a dangerously accurate shot, as well as exceptional playmaking ability that pairs up quite nicely with his superb vision and enthusiasm. Has the ability to absolutely dominate by using his size and speed to keep possession of the puck until he determines it to be the right time for the rubber to hit the back of the net. Everything that he does, he does well, to the fullest of his ability; there are no empty holes in this electrifying and hard-nosed forward’s game.”

Now, if the Oilers were to draft Laine, he immediately slots in next to McDavid as the shooter for that line, in place of Eberle or Yakupov.  I know, you don’t want to rush your prospect, but Laine is NHL-ready, and it won’t be long before he seizes that spot one way or the other.  If they draft Puljujarvi, however, then he likely slots in next to Hall and Draisaitl.  Now, there was a great article done on Beer League Heroes by G-Money (here) about why Draisaitl’s performance has slowed down, and those are likely major factors in it.  I’d add in that him and Hall also miss Teddy Purcell, who was the defensive conscience of that line and provided some solid playmaking skills, so it might be that Puljujarvi slots in here.

Now, these are hardly complete charts showing every aspect of their performance, but you can see that, even if Purcell wasn’t the greatest in his role, he did manage to provide some defense and some assists, and the Hall-Draisaitl line did flourish with him.  Once again, courtesy of the amazing ownthepuck.blogspot.ca, here’s some pretty charts to visually illustrate the differences.

Either way, if the Oilers draft 2nd or 3rd, that means two of the three right-wing spots in the Top-9 are filled.  This would also happen if the Oilers were to draft Auston Matthews, since he’d likely slot in between Hall and Draisaitl, pushing Draisaitl to the right-wing slot.

So, thanks to the draft, we’re now at (assuming we draft second):

Maroon-McDavid-Laine [this line is now complete]

Hall-Draisaitl-xxxxxx

xxxx-xxxxxxx-Kassian

Now, if this were to happen, this is where we likely see Chiarelli pursue someone like Kris Versteeg as a replacement for Teddy Purcell for the Draisaitl line.  As you saw, Purcell (compared to Eberle or Yakupov or Kassian) was a strong defensive player.  And if you look at Versteeg’s chart, you’ll notice he’s a very solid replacement in that role, and will be a UFA this summer.  That will fill the void on that second line, and provide more veteran and playoff experience.

I know, there’s people who want a guy like Lucic, but other than his price, if you look at his chart he’s not a very good defensive player per say, and he’s not an ideal fit for this line. So, we can pencil in Hall-Draisaitl-Versteeg as a second line.

That now leaves us with Pouliot, Eberle, Yakupov and RNH left, and two 3rd line spots.  We can set Eberle and Yakupov off to the side now as trade bait, both are right-wings and aren’t a good use on that 3rd line anyhow.  This is a line that the Oilers will want able to do some heavy lifting and provide scoring.  In that vein, if you look at the defensive performance of Pouliot, although he’s on a heavier contract, he provides good value and, barring a very good offer, will slot in here.  Due to the insanely cheap contract for Maroon thanks to Anaheim retaining salary, the Oilers can afford Pouliot’s contract for a 3rd line LW, and he provides injury insurance in the Top-6.  So we’ll take him out of the spare parts list.

Now we have to decide what to do with RNH.  He’s not a right-side player, and there seems little value in displacing either Maroon or Hall from their spots in the Top-6.  There is plenty of discussion regarding whether RNH is a good defensive player or not.  His statistics say, no, he isn’t all that good at it as seen below.  Having said that, he does play against heavy competition, but, if you look at Pouliot’s charts or Hall’s charts, they play with him and tend to do better.  However, even if you believe he is a good defensive player, he tends to take substantial damage being an all-purpose center and it causes him to miss a significant amount of time.  The usual concern is, the Oilers have had depth issues at center before, and dealing away a spare top-6 center with no depth behind you is a bad call.

But, on the other side, paying an injury prone center $6 million a year to be on the third line is also something good teams don’t do.  That means, love him or hate him, the best use for RNH is to deal him, but to try and include, in any deal coming back, a different 3C.  As it so happens, some of the teams (The Islanders and St. Louis) happen to have ideal 3Cs who are being used as either wingers, or they have the rights to 3rd line centers.  With the Islanders, they have Anders Lee, and St. Louis has Patrik Berglund and Vladimir Svobotka.  Any of these 3 players could slot into the 3C role and also perform as an emergency 2C if the situation called for it.  And as it so happens, the odds are the Oilers will make a play for either Shattenkirk or Hamonic (or both), so there’s possible replacements available in those deals.  This shows you Lee’s performance versus RNH to give you a rough idea.

That leaves us at the following forward structure:

Maroon-McDavid-Laine

Hall-Draisaitl-Versteeg

Pouliot-(Lee/Berglund/Svobotka)-Kassian

And the Oilers now can afford to deal Eberle, Yakupov, and RNH to address that 3C spot and fix the mess we call a defense down the right side.  What this would amount to is essentially pulling the pin on the old “core” of the team, which will break more than a few hearts, and will likely lead to the Oilers overpaying to obtain a pair of right-side defensemen, and some of those traded Oilers performing the Jultz for their new team, further infuriating all of us fans.  However, it’s time, we all accept this reality. And, let’s be honest, if we went into next season with a Maroon-McDavid-Laine first line (which would probably put up points like nothing we’ve seen for ages), a Hall-Draisaitl-Versteeg second line (which would probably be able to provide effective secondary scoring again and be solid enough defensively to get more ice time), a Pouliot-Lee-Kassian 3rd line (Oh my, the Oilers would have a 3rd line of all players over 6’0 tall who can hit, score, and be solid defensively, I don’t remember the last time we had this), we’d probably see a much more effective team on the ice.  Keep in mind, defense is not just something the players on the back need to do, it’s required of the forwards also.

Now, I’m sure you’ve all read the various articles about which right-side defensemen are available, how much they’ll cost in trade, and whether there’s a legitimate chance for the Oilers to obtain them.  I won’t bother you all with those details once again.  And, once again, this is not meant to be a complete statistical analysis of all the players mentioned, this is more to show what the team could do to adjust the forward lines a tad further and result in better two-way play and a more preferably mix up front, and at the same time obtain trade bait (Eberle, Yakupov, RNH) to fix those flaws on the back-end, and completely change the core of the team to move forward.  Thanks for reading, feel free to flame me below as usual.

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Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Micah Kowalchuk, NHL, NHL Entry Draft, Trades

What’s a Top-5 Pick Worth?

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So, as a follow-up article to my precious article’s attempt to place a value on a top-pairing right-side defensemen, I was asked “What’s the value of a Top-5 pick”.  Now, if you believe Auston Matthews is a generational player, I previously wrote an article trying to come up with a modern version of the Lindros trade, which was the last time a “generational” forward was dealt.  However, if you don’t think Matthews fits into that mold, this will cover a more traditional view of what a Top-5 pick is worth.

For an idea on the value of a draft pick, I used the information from http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-expected-value-of-nhl-draft-picks-1.317819, an excellent article by Scott Cullen.

Since the 2000 season, the following trades for Top-5 picks have occurred.  Notice from 2000-2004 it was extremely common to see movement in the draft, but since then it has been less likely to occur.  We have:

  • 2000:
    • #5 Raffi Torres, NYI from Tampa
      • Kevin Weekes, Kristian Kudroc and a 2001 2nd round pick for the #5 pick, 2000 4th round pick and a 2000 7th round pick;
      • What did they get:
        • Kevin Weekes had a few seasons under his belt by that point, but had never played more than 36 games in a season until this trade. He had ok numbers going forward, so we can classify him as an average NHL starter.
        • Kristian Kudroc was a 6’7, 225lb right-shot defenseman, who was a very physical player, but he never panned out at the NHL level with only 26 total NHL games in his career, but teams have always been willing to place a premium on giants like this;
        • A 2nd round pick, giving you a 33.8% chance of landing an NHL player;
      • What did they give up:
        • The #5 pick, which has a chance of being 73.8% chance of being a Top-6 caliber or better player.
        • A 4th round pick, which is an 18.9% chance of giving you an NHL player;
        • A 7th round pick, which is a 9.3% chance of giving you an NHL player;
  • 2001:
    • #2 Jason Spezza, Ottawa from NYI
      • Alexei Yashin for Bill Muckalt, Zdeno Chara and the #2 pick;
      • What did they get:
        • Oh, the trades you wish you could take back if you were the Islanders.. Having said that, at the time of the deal, Yashin had put up 88 points in 82 NHL games the previous season, and his time with the Islanders wasn’t that bad, putting up 75 in 78 the next season. As well, he was a legitimate top-line NHL center at the time. If it wasn’t for his absurd deal, he likely would have had a much longer career with the Islanders, as he had 50 points in 58 games the season he was bought out. He played 5 seasons with the Islanders, scoring 290 points in 346 games.
      • What did they give up:
        • Bill Muckalt was your average NHL depth winger, not much to consider there.
        • The #2 pick, which is that 73.8% chance of getting a top-6 player or better;
        • Zdeno Chara, the 6’9 250lb giant, who was in his 4th season with the Islanders when this trade went down. Now, it should be noted that with the Islanders, he didn’t seem nearly as skilled as he turned out to be, putting up 29 points in 231 games. It was pretty clear he had a mean streak. However, his first season with the Senators he put up 23 points in 75 games, and never looked back. Call this a quality prospect defenseman deal.
  • 2002:
    • #1 Rick Nash, Columbus from Florida
      • #3, some draft swap options that were not exercised for next year (ability to swap first round picks) #3 Jay Bouwmeester, Florida from Columbus
      • What did they get: This was a classic example of two teams preferring different players (forwards or defensemen), and swapping their picks that year with the option for the other team to swap them next season… Essentially, this was just an attempt to pick up a better draft spot next year when an organization clearly preferred a player.
    • #4 Joni Pitkanen, Philly from Tampa
      • Ruslan Fedotenko, 2 2002 2nd round picks for the #4
      • What did they give up:
        • At the time, Ruslan Fedotenko had seasons of 36 points in 74 games and 26 points in 78 games. During his time with the Lightning, he was around a 45-point winger, so a solid second-line player.
        • The pair of 2nd round picks gives the team 33.8% chance for each pick of landing an NHL player
      • What did they get:
        • A defenseman in the first 5 picks has a 64.7% chance of being a Top-4 defenseman;
  • 2003:
    • #1 Marc-Andre Fleury, Pittsburgh from Florida
      • The #3 pick, 2003 2nd round pick for the #1 and a 2003 3rd round pick;
      • Once again, this was a case of organizations preferring a given player in the Top-5, where the team trading down to pick their player gained a 2nd round pick for a 3rd round pick for doing it.
  • 2004:
    • #4 Andrew Ladd, Carolina from Columbus
      • A 2004 1st round pick and a 2004 2nd round pick for the #4 pick.
      • And the same idea here, where a team picked up an additional 2nd round pick for moving down a few spots.
  • 2008:
    • #3 Zach Bogosian
      • Rights to Keith Tkachuk, conditional 4th round pick;
      • This was a deal sweetener trade for Keith Tkachuk if they were able to resign him, so essentially a #3 pick was used to balance a trade for a Top-3 power forward. A parallel could be used here if the Oilers were to make a trade for Kevin Shattenkirk and part of the deal was a 1st round pick going to the Blues if they were able to re-sign him.
    • #5 Luke Schenn, Toronto from NYI
      • The #5 pick for the #7 pick, 2008 3rd round pick and a 2009 2nd round pick
      • Once again, we have a trading down deal, where an organization dropped down 2 spots in the draft to pick up some extra 2nd and 3rd round picks.
  • 2010:
    • #2 Tyler Seguin, Boston from Toronto
      • Phil Kessel for #2, 2010 2nd round, 2011 1st round #9
      • Now this is one of the rare deals, where an elite NHL winger was dealt;
      • What did they get:
        • Phil Kessel was just coming into his own then, and he went on to put up some very high numbers with a very bad Toronto organization. He would be considered an elite Top-3 winger;
      • What did they give up:
        • The #2 pick would be a 73.8% chance of a Top-6 or better forward;
        • The #9 in 2011 was a 64.7% chance of getting a Top-4 defenseman;
        • And the 2nd round pick was a 33.8% chance of getting an NHL player;

So, if we remove all the trades that would just be the Oilers trading down slightly to get a couple more 2nd or 3rd round picks, we have these left:

  • A #5 pick (as well as a 4th round pick and a 7th round pick) went for an average starting goaltender, a quality prospect defenseman, and a 2nd round pick;
  • A #2 pick as well as a depth forward and a quality prospect defenseman for a Top-3 NHL center;
  • A #4 pick for a 2nd line Winger and a pair of 2nd round picks;
  • A #3 pick as a deal sweetener if a team re-signs an elite forward (or player) they get in a deal;
  • A #2 pick, a #9 pick and a 2nd round pick for an Elite Top-3 scoring winger;
        • The #9 in 2011 was a 64.7% chance of getting a Top-4 defenseman;
        • And the 2nd round pick was a 33.8% chance of getting an NHL player;

So, what can we conclude from this?  Depending on where the Oilers pick, we can see that you can get an elite NHL forward for a #2 pick if you include either another pick or a quality prospect defenseman.  If you go down to #3, you can use this to seal the deal on a soon-to-be UFA elite player in a deal.  At #4, you can get yourself a Top-6 forward and a few extra picks, and at #5 you can get a quality prospect, a starting goaltender and an extra depth pick.

I would say there’s little point in trading the #4 or #5 here, as teams rarely got anything worth the effort.  For the #3, this would be an example, as mentioned, of how the Oilers may do a deal for Brent Burns or Kevin Shattenkirk, who both have one year until free agency, however that wouldn’t work for this year’s draft anyhow, it would be more likely to involve their pick next year.  And lastly, we can see that you can land an elite NHL forward in a deal for that #2 pick.  Having said that, if you look at the Yashin deal and the Seguin deal, both teams trading for that elite player and giving up the draft pick did not fare well.  Essentially, teams dealing their Top-5 picks don’t tend to come out of it all that well unless they’re doing a swap with another team for a high first round pick to get the player they prefer.

 

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