All posts by Micah Kowalchuk

Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Micah Kowalchuk, NHL, Trades

How Much Does a Right-Handed Defenseman Go For Anyway…

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Jeff-Petry

So, at this point of the year, we’re left wondering with these two questions.  First, what is a quality Top-6 NHL winger worth, and second, what is the going price for a quality Top-4 right-handed defenseman.

In an effort to answer these burning questions while I wait for the snow to melt so I can start golfing, because, well, that’s what us Oilers fans do in the spring, here’s my best guess.

To do this, we can essentially just look at the deals for defensemen, there’s really only been 8 deals involving high-end right-handed defensemen in recent history, and here’s how they break down:

  • Jason Demers, originally a 7th round pick, had played parts of 6 seasons with the San Jose Sharks when he was dealt to the Dallas Stars for a 3rd round pick and Brenden Dillon. At that point of his career, he could safely be considered a 4/5 defenseman who has flourished in Dallas with more opportunity;
    • He was dealt for a defenseman who was younger and considered to have more upside at the time, and who was 6’3 225lbs.
  • Kevin Shattenkirk, in his first season with the Avalanche, was dealt along with a 2nd round pick and Chris Stewart, at the time considered a Top-6 NHL power forward, for Erik Johnson, a first round pick, and a depth forward;
    • Once again, we have defensemen going both ways in this deal as a balance, and both were considered quality young defensemen with high upside;
  • Matt Niskanen was dealt, along with James Neal, to the Pittsburgh Penguins for Alex Goligoski, who at the time was considered a potentially premier offensive defenseman;
    • Again, we see a defenseman for a defenseman swap, with the better defensemen resulting in the inclusion of a scoring winger;
  • Tyler Myers, along with pending UFA winger Drew Stafford, a pair of prospects and a first round pick to the Winnipeg Jets for Evander Kane and Zack Bogosian;
    • Once again we see scoring forwards to balance the deal in favour of who gets the better defenseman, but again there are defensemen moving in the deal;

Now, to look at the deals where no other defensemen were involved:

  • Brent Burns for Devin Setoguchi and a first. Now, it has to be noted here, Burns was as much a winger as a defenseman at this time, and therefore was dealt for another winger with an included draft pick;
  • Dustin Byfuglien (along with Ben Eager, Brent Sopel and Akim Aliu) for a 1st, 2nd, and a selection of depth forwards. Once again, Byfuglien was considered as much a power forward, and therefore his price was more along the lines of a scoring forward;
  • Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen. This was the most recent move, where a larger 1st line center was moved for a player who, although having potential, was a 2nd pairing right-hand defenseman on his team;
  • Johnny Boychuk for two 2nds and a conditional 3rd. It has to be noted that the Islanders caught Boston in a bad cap situation and was able to take advantage of it due to their cap space. This deal, although fans scream for the Oilers to make a similar one, was lighting in a bottle and is unlikely to be duplicated;
  • Dougie Hamilton was dealt for a 1st and two 2nd round picks when he didn’t sign his RFA deal;

So, to summarize, we can discount the Boychuk deal as a rarity, and we can consider the Burns and Byfuglien deals to essential be for forwards (at the time).  That leaves us with the various deals where they are essentially Best Defensemen in the Deal for Scoring Forward and Lesser Defenseman, and then the deal of a 2nd pairing with potential Defenseman for a Top-3 Center.  This shows us how much value is generally placed on a right-handed defenseman, and we can expect one of our younger left-handed defenseman will be going alongside any winger we deal to obtain such a right-handed defenseman.

Now, one can debate the quality of players such as Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov or Taylor Hall, but as becomes clear, no one deals a quality right-handed defenseman for a winger unless a secondary defenseman was included.  Goligoski for Niskanen and Neal are an example of this.  The only real exception would be the Burns scenario, which would still place a rough price of approximately Jordan Eberle and our first round pick to make that deal happen.  Essentially, any deal the Oilers do will probably have to include one of Oesterle, Davidson or even Klefbom along with a winger to get that quality right-side defenseman, or else our first-round pick plus a winger.  The only exception would be if the Oilers chose to deal Nugent-Hopkins, who may at best on his own fetch a right-handed defenseman with “potential”.

What do you think, let us know in the comments below! And please don’t forget to subscribe to our Youtube Channel and our Soundcloud page!

https://soundcloud.com/beerleagueheroes/askblh-3-would-you-trade-for-ivan-provorov

Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Micah Kowalchuk, NHL, Trades

Auston Matthews – What’s the Modern Equivalent of the Lindros Trade?

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With talk about the Oilers winning the lottery for the right to draft Auston Matthews, the question comes up as to whether or not the Oilers should deal the pick if they were to obtain the #1 yet again (and to be fair, this is the one thing this organization has proven able to win).

Now, trying to figure out what you could get for a “franchise” forward at the draft these days is problematic, this doesn’t tend to happen often.  The standard for “franchise center” deals is still the Eric Lindros trade, so, in the spirit of attempting to translate this to today’s era, let’s see what Eric Lindros was worth:

Peter Forsberg – At the time he was still a prospect center who went #6 overall in the 1991 draft, he was considered a top-6 center prospect, with first-line upside, so that means the Oilers get a Top-6 C prospect;

Steve Duchesne – At the time, he was 6 seasons into his career as a defenseman, and he was putting up approximately .75ppg and would be defined as a clear “offensive defenseman” with solid numbers, but I wouldn’t define him as elite per say.  So the Oilers can add in a power-play quarterback and top-4 defenseman to their haul.

Kerry Huffman – He had played parts of 6 NHL seasons as a left defenseman, and would best be described as a 3rd pairing player, so the Oilers get themselves a depth defenseman here.

Mike Ricci – He had played 2 pro seasons as a Center with solid point totals in those years, he’d best be considered an elite 3C or a solid 2C, so here, the Oilers get a premium 3C with 2C upside.

Ron Hextall – He had 6 seasons with the Flyers, at this point would have been considered an average starting goaltender in the NHL.  Oilers get a standard goalie.

Chris Simon – He was a left-winger, and at the time of the trade he was a prospect with point projections at the draft saying Middle-6 winger.  So the Oilers get themselves a winger prospect.

As for the draft picks, the Oilers would get a 1st round pick in two drafts of approximately #10 in value.

In regards to the $15 million in cash, the best we can calculate here would be retained salary on some contracts to help with cap space.

Now, the team everyone says would be willing to deal for Auston Matthews is the Arizona Coyotes.  So, let’s see what we can find as equivalents on their rosters..

First, let’s look at the prospects.  We need a Forsberg equivalent, essentially the top center prospect in their system, so that means Dylan Strome becomes an Edmonton Oiler.  And as the equivalent for Chris Simon, we get Michael Bunting, a power-forward middle-6 type of left-wing prospect.

Next up, we need a top-4 defenseman.  Now, normally people would be screaming for OEL here, but the equivalent on the Arizona roster might be closer to Michael Stone, a second-pairing quality defenseman with solid offensive ability, and he is a right-side guy the Oilers could use.

Moving on, we need a depth defenseman here, and the best equivalent on the Arizona roster for the Oilers here would be Zbynek Michalek, a veteran capable of 3rd pairing play as a right-handed defenseman.

Now, we need an elite 3C with 2C ability.  Martin Hanzal looks right in this spot, probably re-signed by Arizona in advance of the deal, and looking at the $15 million cash aspect, Arizona would retain salary to put his salary at what would be appropriate for the Oilers to use him as that elite 3C.

As for the goaltending, well, Mike Smith would be an equivalent to Hextall at this point perhaps, and yet again the Coyotes would be required to retain salary as part of the transaction, enough to make Mike Smith’s salary viable as a backup.

Lastly, we get those two 1st round picks as well.

So, here’s the rough equivalent:

Dylan Strome (top-6 center prospect)

Michael Bunting (middle-6 winger prospect)

Michael Stone (top-4 offensive right-hand defenseman)

Zbynek Michalek (bottom-pairing right-hand depth defenseman, salary retained)

Martin Hanzal (elite 3C, salary retained and resigned for 3 years)

Mike Smith (average league goaltender, salary retained)

First round picks in 2017 and 2018.

Now, I know, we don’t get OEL in this scenario, but there’s a variety of parts for the Oilers to work with out of this crew to address issues, and I think would be roughly equivalent to the Lindros deal in this case.

If this was the deal, would you make it for Auston Matthews?

 

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Edmonton Oilers, Micah Kowalchuk, NHL

The Heritage Classic – Which Golden Oldies Can Still Dangle?

Well folks, the Oilers are getting their outdoor game against the Jets.  Now, putting aside the fact that the Jets are actually the Atlanta Thrashers and have virtually no classic alumni, the NHL seems content letting them ice the greatest hits of the Phoenix Coyotes.  So, who can we expect to see on the ice for the Oilers?

First off, we need to pick players who are still physical able to compete.  Let’s start with the Oilers.

This was the roster for the original 2003 Heritage Classic game.  In net were Grant Fuhr, Bill Ranford and Andy Moog.  At forward was Gretzky, Andersen, Chipperfield, Hunter, Kurri, Linseman, Lumley, Semenko, Simpson and Tikkanen.  On defense, there was Beukeboom, Coffey, Fogolin, Gregg, Huddy, Lowe, McSorley and Muni.

Starting with the goaltenders, there is Grant Fuhr, Bill Ranford, Andy Moog, but there are also the other possibles in Tommy Salo or Dwayne Roloson.  Grant Fuhr has been retired since 2000, and played in the 2003 Heritage Classic, so that’s 13 years off the ice as a player.  He was a goaltending coach until 2009, so that’s not quite as bad as it seems, since he probably logged some time on the ice in his coaching capacity, and he’s 53, so he’s not too old to lace them up.  Based on his age I could see him being in a reduced role.

Bill Ranford is 49, has been retired since 2000, and played for the Oilers in the 2003 Heritage Classic.  In 2004 he was the goaltender stunt double for the movie Miracle.  And at this time he is still the goaltending coach for the Los Angeles Kings, so he’s likely still able to put the pads on and not be too rusty, he could be the starter.

Andy Moog, at 56, I expect to be off the roster this time, with one of Tommy Salo, Curtis Joseph or Dwayne Roloson taking the ice.  Now, Tommy Salo logged more games, but Dwayne Roloson’s cup run has made him a fan favorite in Edmonton.  He’s 46, and played until 2012, so he’s only 4 years off the ice at this point.  There’s also Curtis Joseph, the immortal CuJo, but in some ways he’s viewed as more of a Toronto Maple Leaf, so I would guess we see Grant Fuhr, Bill Ranford and Dwayne Roloson in net.

Moving on to our defensemen, we should all rejoice in the fact that, once again, we will see an NHL defense playing in Oilers jerseys.  I’d guess by the time this game rolls around Chiarelli will have revamped the existing one to the point it will be competitive, but in the meantime..  We can safely expect to see Paul Coffey, Kevin Lowe, Charlie Huddy, Jeff Beukeboom, Marty McSorley and Craig Muni out there.  It’s likely that both Lee Fogolin (61 with no real involvement in hockey since his 1987 retirement) and Randy Gregg (60 and out of the sport since 1992) will be the ones replaced.

As a result, this opens the door for two of the more beloved Edmonton Oilers defensemen of the last little while, Steve Smith and Jason Smith.  Other than the Chris Pronger effect, these are two of the most memorable “newer generation” Oilers defensemen to take the ice, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them both don the alumni silks for this game.  Now, for all of you wondering what a power play quarterback looks like, we can sit back and relax and enjoy watching Paul Coffey once again (as we search for his replacement and pray to whichever gods we hold dear that St. Peter manages to obtain Kevin Shattenkirk for us, amen).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNP4d5kZksE

And that takes us to our forwards.  Although we all now worship the McJesus and the collection of amazing young talent we have here, once upon a time the Oilers had some pretty good forwards too.  We can expect to see McDavid 1.0, Wayne Gretzky, take the ice, along with his entourage of Glenn Anderson, Dave Hunter, Jari Kurri, Mark Messier, Esa Tikkanen and Dave Semenko on the ice.  The only possibility is the fact that Semenko may have some lingering resentment to how the organization discharged him last summer, so if he can’t go, I would expect George Laraque to be the fan-favorite enforcer alternative here.

Now, there were a total of 10 forwards for the last Alumni game, so we now have 3 spots open.  The names that jump to mind are Bill Guerin, Doug Weight, and Ryan Smyth.  All three are much beloved members of the organization, experienced success here to some degree, and seem logical choices to flush out the heritage roster.  There’s also the possibility of Todd Marchant, another character player loved by the organization, to step in as an alternate here.

So fans, that’s who I’d expect to see on the ice for the next Heritage Classic, who would you like to see lace ’em up for the alumni game? Let us know in the comments below!

Edmonton Oilers, Micah Kowalchuk, NHL

Paul Coffey 2.0 – Where can the Oilers find a new precious?

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So, I was reading the NHL.com list of the Top-60 Defensemen.  This is a list focused pretty heavy on scoring from the back end, but, hey, we all know the Oilers need that..
For the Oilers there are two players on that list: Andrej Sekera is number 39, and Oscar Klefbom is noted as a key injury.
Now, of course, this list is centered on point producing defensemen – which the Oilers lack desperately.
Looking at the list, these are the Defenseman ranked ahead of Sekera who have been offered around in deals (confirmed), and no, this will not include Burns, or OEL, or Byfuglien, only defensemen who’s organizations have actively shopped them.
15 – Kevin Shattenkirk (1 year left on deal, asking price will be a Top-6 C and/or a RW)
18 – Sami Vatanen (Pending RFA, Anaheim has D, will look for cheap Top-6 scoring)
21 – Keith Yandle (Pending UFA, however is a pure LHD, no RHD experience)
38 – Alex Goligoski (Pending UFA, is also a LHD)
On the other side of Sekera, if we look in terms of a support defenseman to round out a Top-4 of Klefbom, Davidson, Sekera, we have:
44 – Mark Streit (Has term left, is older, LHD also)
50 – Brian Campbell (UFA, older, also LHD)
Teams with more than 2 D on this list:
Anaheim: 3 D in the Top 60 (Vatanen, Fowler, Lindholm)
St. Louis: 3 D in the Top 60 (Shattenkirk, Pietrangelo, Parayko)
Calgary: 3 D in the Top 60 (Brodie, Giordano, Hamilton)
LA: 3 D in the Top 60 (Doughty, Muzzin, Martinez)
Colorado: 3 D in the Top 60 (Barrie, Beauchemin, Johnson)
Nashville: 4 D in the Top 60 (Josi, Weber, Ekholm, Ellis)
Boston: 3 D in the Top 60 (Krug, Chara, Liles)
We can assume any team with 2 or less D-men on that list will want to keep both. Nashville has shown a refusal to move any more D-men for scoring, so they’ll likely keep all 4 of theirs (shows where they get their scoring from, hell of a D even without Seth Jones). Calgary and LA are unlikely to move anyone, Colorado even with 3 in the list is desperate for more D, and Boston is also on record as searching for more D.
So, that leaves Anaheim and St. Louis as the two organizations who are on record as looking for offense and being willing to move a younger scoring D (and both are conveniently on the right side).
In summary, we won’t get a Doughty, or a Weber, or an OEL, or Burns, or Byfuglien. Our two most likely shots are Shattenkirk and Vatanen.
As for Hamonic or Trouba (neither of whom are on this list), I’ll just point out it’s extremely likely they end up dealt for each other in the off-season once the two teams can figure out the fine print, since Hamonic wants to go to Winnipeg, and NYI wants a young RHD coming back. So, sad as it is, betting neither ends up here.
Thanks for reading once again! Let me know in the comments below who you think the Oilers could or should try to pick up this summer in the comments below!
NHL

Shuffling Deck Chairs on the Titanic – Who should the Oilers bring up now?

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So, in keeping with the theme of the season, Brandon Davidson (perhaps our best defender as of late) is out with an injury, and Klefbom has yet to return to skating.

That leaves the NHL club with Sekera, Clendening, Pardy, Nurse, Nikitin, and Fayne.  We can assume Sekera-Fayne will continue as a pairing, but even if the Oilers tempt fate and keep Nikitin on the ice, they need a 7th defenseman for when something goes wrong.  Now, although there’s no right-hand D on the Condors, there’s a few defensemen who are an option to be called up.

In no particular order, here are the Condors’ defensemen:  Brad Hunt, Joey LaLeggia, Jordan Oesterle, Dillon Simpson, David Musil and Griffin Reinhart.  These are who the Oilers have to pick from.  So, the question is, who gets the recall?

The Longshots

Brad Hunt – He’s 27, 5’9, 187lbs, a left shot, and he’s putting up his usual crazy AHL totals of 32 points in 42 games, but his scoring has never translated to the NHL, and his defensive game is a little on the tire fire side.  We can leave him down there.

David Musil – He’s a big kid at 6’4 203lbs, and he’s only 22, but he’s still a little on the thin side for his height, so he’s not overly physical.  On the plus side, he’s been logging time on the right side this year, but he’s more of a 3rd pairing shutdown body at this point, which isn’t what the Oilers need to look at right now (10 points in 51 games).

Dillon Simpson – 6’2, 197lbs, 23 years old, another ok prospect who’s doing decent work down with the Condors, but he doesn’t provide much that would be different from Musil.  Offense isn’t his game, he’s another guy who’d be a 3rd pairing player by his projection right now.

The Contenders

Griffin Reinhart – We know him well, and at 22, 6’4, 212lbs, he has the size to be physical.  He’s able to come up and play 3rd pairing time, sure, and he has decent hands (9 points in 27 AHL games), and if the Oilers wanted a steady body to come up and play for Davidson, he’s a logical choice.   However, he’s also not providing a new dimension, simply more of the same.

Jordan Oesterle – 23, 6’0, 182lbs, able to play the right side, and he did well in his 4-game audition earlier this year alongside Davidson.  In the AHL this year, he’s put up 22 points in 41 games, showing he has some scoring flair (although it should be noted this is an aberration in his career so far, and his 1 point in 4 NHL games seems more on par).  He’s a slick 3rd pairing defenseman who showed well in his audition, and there’s a very good chance he’ll be the recall, however, once again, he’s more of the same on this club.

The Solution

Joey LaLeggia – 23, 5’10, 185lbs.  Yes, he’s not physical.  Yes, he’s not all that big.  He is not a shutdown guy, and he is not a physical force on the ice.  However, what he does have is true puck skills and the ability to run a power play and produce numbers, at least at every other level he’s played at.  He was a Hobey Baker trophy runner-up, and unlike Brad Hunt is capable of playing defense with speed and positioning.  His AHL numbers aren’t out of this world, but in his first full AHL season he has 23 points in 47 games, and during his time at the University of Denver he had 132 points in 156 games, putting up 40 points in 37 games his final season.  What LaLeggia provides is someone who may be able to run a power play and get shots on net, which LaLeggia can do.  In his final college season, he had 15 goals and 25 assists.  In the AHL this year, he has 7 goals and 16 assists.  What you can take from that is he’s able to hit the net consistently, or his assist to goal ratio would be quite a bit higher.  He’s someone with a dimension to his game the Oilers need, and he should be the call-up.

Now, if we do bring him up, how do we use him?   We can assume the first pair will remain Sekera-Fayne, not much doubt there.  The rest of the pieces have been in flux, but let’s put Nikitin back on the bench.  That leaves us Clendening, Pardy, LaLeggia and Nurse.  Now this is where it gets a little iffy.  By default, you wouldn’t want to put a fresh AHL call-up with another fairly new player such as Nurse, so that leaves us trying out the pairing of Nurse-Clendening as the 3rd pairing.  That means we’re putting LaLeggia in with Pardy on what could very well be the second pairing, and I’ll be the first to say, yes, this is a risk.

So, I’m going to suggest instead that Pardy-Nurse play together as the second pairing.  This is a step up for Nurse, and one of the two is going to be playing on their right side, but at this time of the year, you might as well see what guys are capable of.  That leaves us with a 3rd pairing built for heavy offensive zone starts and power play duty in LaLeggia and Clendening.  Now, I’ll be the first to say this is not a defensive zone pair, and they’re not going to set the world on fire with their shutdown ability.  However, they might be a deadly duo on the power play, and at 5 on 5 their ability to get the puck up the ice may trigger some interesting options.

There’s my pick folks, Joey LaLeggia.  Let’s see if Joey can breathe some life into our power play for the first time in, oh, this season