All posts by Micah Kowalchuk

Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Micah Kowalchuk, NHL, Trades

Fixing up the Oilers Defense – Jason Demers

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So, in an attempt to find out if there is anything in the free agent market, I took a snoop at the best available right-handed defenseman, Jason Demers.

Now, at first glance, he’s a 6’1 200lb right-shit, 27 years old, good for .34ppg (28 points per year).  So, he looks like a decent option, but nothing spectacular at first, other than a good second pairing option.

As fans, the name everyone wants to see with the Oilers is Travis Hamonic, and we’ve seen many discussions of how he’d be a perfect fit here.  This, courtesy of www.ownthepuck.blogspot.ca, is how they compare:

What jumps out is that Demers is, without much debate, a better defenseman than Hamonic.  For that matter, his offense over 60 is even superior to Hamonic.  Although we talk about Hamonic as a shut-down guy, Demers does that better as well, and in the case of shot supression, far better.

Also, Demers posts these numbers on a run-and-gun hockey team that is always considered weak on the defensive end.  If Hamonic would be a solution for the Oilers, then there’s no question Demers would be one as well, and one that could easily play a top-pairing role.

Of course, the normal reply is “Well, there’s no way Dallas lets him go”, and that was the first thought that came up in debate.  However, when you look at Dallas’s cap next year…

With 27 contracts in place, Dallas has $56 million allocated to 9 forwards, 3 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders.  If the cap is around $71 million, that means Dallas has $15 million to spend on 5 forwards and 5 defensemen.  Out of that, the following positions must be addressed:

Vernon Fiddler – 4th line C

Patrick Eaves – 4th line RW

Valeri Nichushkin – 2nd line RW (RFA)

Alex Goligoski – 1st line LHD

Kris Russel – 2nd line LHD

Jason Demers – 2nd line RHD

Jordie Benn – 3rd line RHD

As well, Jamie Oleksiak is a pending RFA

That means Dallas has, as UFAs, 3 of their Top-4 on defense.  So, assuming Dallas gets Oleksiak and Nichushkin under contract for approximately $2.5 million each, we’re now at $10 million for Fiddler, Eaves, Goligoski, Russel, Demers and Benn.  Goligoski, as a top-pairing left-handed defenseman, can expect a contract of approximately $5 million.  That leaves $5 million for the remaining players.  If the Oilers were to offer Demers a 5-year, $6 million per year contract, it’s unlikely Dallas could match the offer.

Now, this would eventually leave the Oilers in a salary-cap situation as well, where one of the $6 million core would need to be dealt, however this should not prevent them from trying for Demers.  If the Oilers are looking for a defenseman such as Hamonic, Demers appears to be a better defenseman (if one that would be more expensive and a bit older).  If he can be obtained as a free agency, the Oilers have that many more assets to deal for present and future players.

 

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Edmonton Oilers, Micah Kowalchuk

Looking at the NHL Playoffs in the West post-deadline

As an Oilers blogger, it’s rare you write about the NHL playoffs, so in the vein of something different, here’s a summary of what the major contenders did to their roster out here. We know Chicago, Los Angeles, Colorado, Anaheim, Dallas and San Jose were active, whereas Nashville and St. Louis were not.

So, for those of us Oilers fans killing time until we see our own team in the playoffs, here’s your scorecard for the teams who changed their roster:

Chicago: They picked up Andrew Ladd as a top-6 winger, and Tomas Fleischmann and Dale Weise as bottom-6 improvements, making their forward core very deep. There were rumors they were looking for more defensemen, but they settled for adding Christian Erhoff. They did add Tim Jackman as an AHL depth piece who may be a call-up for the playoffs as well. Overall, a solid few deadline days for Chicago, and we know their top-4 on D can eat minutes.

Los Angeles: They picked up Rob Scuderi in the Erhoff deal, who’s a better fit and knows their system, consider him the new 7th defenseman here. To bolster their forward corps, other than the previous Vincent Lecavlier deal, LA also added Kris Versteeg, As well, in the Lecavlier trade, they also picked up Luke Schenn. Overall, a bit more defensive improvement than Chicago, with a bit less offensive boost.

Anaheim: The Ducks had earlier acquired David Perron as a top-6 addition, and then added Ryan Garbutt as a bottom-6 player. In an effort to add further scoring, the Ducks landed Brandon Pirri at a low price, hoping he could re-discover his scoring chance, and added Jamie McGinn as a Middle-6 winger. This led to the Oilers being able to obtain Patrick Maroon, as Anaheim needed room to slot in Pirri and McGinn. Neither of them are elite scorers, but both are able to put up 20 goals in the league and are valuable depth players. No change to the defense here, which may lack an elite player, but has solid depth all the way through.

Nashville: They picked up Corey Potter, the guy who used to be a defenseman for the Oilers. That was about the extent of their big moves.

Minnesota: In a bid to get back in the playoffs, Minnesota went big and picked up David Jones from Calgary, also shedding Backstrom’s contract in the process. About it here also.

San Jose: They did some earlier shopping, adding a bottom-pairing defenseman in Roman Polak and a bottom-6 forward in Nick Spaling, and then added some insurance in net by landing James Reimer. Nothing too extravagant for the most part.

St. Louis: They picked up our AHL goaltender as a backup in case their backup needed a backup. So, basically, they did nothing today.

Dallas: They really needed help on the back end, and gave up far too much to land Kris Russell, who is either a solid top-4 defenseman, or barely a bottom-6 guy, depending on how much you believe in advanced stats. Either way, it was a drastic overpayment, hope for their sake it pans out.

Colorado: Naturally, for a team everyone feels needs defense desperately, Patrick Roy went the other way, picking up Shawn Matthias as a bottom-6 depth piece, Mikkel Boedker in a deal to replace Alex Tanguay in the top-6, and then finally picking up a bottom-pairing defenseman for a cheap price in Eric Gelinas.

So, where does this leave things? Chicago and LA still look like the most dangerous teams in the West, with Anaheim picking up some unheralded pieces who might help address their scoring. Colorado improved on offense while ignoring defense (it’s like they’re managed by MacT), Dallas overpaid badly to get something resembling a defenseman, San Jose did a few reasonable additions (at a higher price also), and St. Louis and Minnesota spun in circles while repeating “We’re good teams, honest”.

If you want to place your bets on the Big-3 of Anaheim (always a bridesmaid), LA or Chicago, go ahead. The rest, nothing to see here folks, the big-3 continue their unholy reign.

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Edmonton Oilers, Micah Kowalchuk, Rumors, Trades

Recapping 24 Hours in Oilerville

So, in the spirit of catching everyone up on things involving the Oilers trades…

  • Nilsson was traded for a 5th round pick and prospect goalie Niklas Lundstrom.  For those wondering, this was more than fair value.  The Oilers originally traded a prospect drafted in the 5th round for Nilsson, so they got back a bit more than they dealt.
  • Teddy Purcell went for a 3rd round pick to Florida.  Now, some people were disappointed after the deals for Hudler and Ladd, however this is fair value.  Purcell, although he had 17 points in 18 games one year in the playoffs, had 1 in 4 games his next time up.  Ladd has 52 playoff games in his career and Chicago paid more for a proven quantity who knows their lineup.  Hudler, he has 77 playoff games and can also play center.  You take the cards you’re dealt, Purcell’s trade wasn’t for great value, but it was market price.
  • Justin Schultz is moving on, and it’s for the best.  Although I still think there’s a player there, he’s one who won’t find his game here, and having a mentor in Kris Letang will work wonders for him.  For the Oilers, they got a 3rd round pick and can move on from there.  Schultz was essentially a 3rd pairing defenseman getting paid 2nd pairing money to be a first pairing defenseman, the scenario was never good for anyone.
  • Apparently Sami Vatanen and Eric Gelinas are now on the market and their teams want scoring for either one before the deadline.  Vatanen is a pending RFA rumored to want $6mil a season (but that’s likely just an opening offer, expect a 4-year $4.5 deal or so).  This explains why Jordan Eberle’s name is now being brought up again, and I’d say there is a chance we see a deal done.
  • Yakupov is also being thrown about as a possible trade candidate, with Montreal having quite a bit of interest to reunite him with Galchenyuk.  However, there’s other teams snooping around also, with a variety of rumors about his value.
  • What can we expect as Oilers fans?  There’s a solid chance we see Yakupov dealt, a smaller chance we see Eberle dealt for a defenseman, and that Korpikoski and/or Hendricks may be moved yet.  Chiarelli made it clear he doesn’t expect a big deal to go down, and that he wants to keep Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on the roster, so those are the likely candidates.
  • The stats on Vatanen say Top-2 offensive defenseman, Top-4 defensively, but he’s been on the third pairing in Anaheim, so it’s unsure if he can do the same in a more prominent role.  Gelinas is in a similar situation.
  • Tomorrow could get interesting thanks to the arms race in LA, Chicago, Florida and New York.  Teams like Nashville, Anaheim, St. Louis, Tampa, Pittsburgh and the like may decide they need to keep pace to have a chance, and we could see a lot more movement (and some higher end pieces) than we’d normally see, makes things interesting;

At the end of the day

We could see a very different team by Tuesday morning, one without Purcell, Schultz, Nilsson, Eberle, Yakupov, Fayne, Hendricks and Korpikoski… We could also see a team that looks essentially the same as the one that played last game with no other additions or subtractions. If I had to bet a beer or two on it, I’d be willing to bet a pint on a Yakupov deal, a can of Original 16 on an Eberle deal, and nothing firm on anyone else;

Check out the latest from Three Points Dave! You’re going to want to catch his intensity in this one… WOW!

Edmonton Oilers, Fancy Stats, Micah Kowalchuk, NHL

Dealing and Wheeling – How Do the Oilers’ Forwards Produce Compared to the League Average?

With the trade deadline coming up, and everyone wanting to know who’s worth what, who to keep, and what there is on the roster, I decided to run a little comparison with the Oilers roster.

A great article by Andrew Berkshire, looked at what the average numbers across the league were for an article on the Montreal Canadians.  Using his numbers, and estimating based on those what 4th line performance would be, here’s how the Oilers break down.

First, Andrew’s numbers state these as 1st through 3rd line forward production averages in the league:

1st line: LW 42-87 points // C: 55-80 points // RW 42-81 points

2nd line: LW 26-41 points // C: 39-55 points // RW 26-41 points

3rd line: LW 12-25 points // C: 31-39 points // RW 12-25 points

From that, you can project a 4th line as: LW: 5-11 points // C: 10-30 points // RW: 5-11 points

So, if we pro-rate all the Oilers forwards this year over 82 games, this is how they do:

Hall: 70 points (1st line LW)  // Draisaitl: 68 points (1st line C)  // Eberle: 60 points (1st line RW) // Pouliot: 54 points (1st line LW) // Purcell: 43 points (1st line LW) // RNH: 53 points (2nd line C) // McDavid: 92 points (1st line C) // Letestu: 21 points (4th line C) // Yakupov: 31 points (2nd line RW) // Korpikoski: 24 points (3rd line LW) // Hendricks: 15 points (4th line C or 3rd line RW) //  Pakarinen: 13 points (3rd line RW) // Kassian: 26 points (2nd line RW) // Khaira: 13 points (3nd line LW) // Lander: 3 points (low-end 4C)

And the summary is this:

1st line players: Hall, Draisaitl, Eberle, Pouliot, Purcell, McDavid

2nd line players: RNH, Yakupov, Kassian

3rd line players: Korpikoski, Hendricks, Pakarinen, Khaira

4th line players: Letestu, Lander

By comparison, here are the numbers for Chicago:

1st line players:  Kane (109), Panarin (77), Toews (58), Hossa (43)

2nd line players:  Anisimov (44), Shaw (40)

3rd line players: Teravainen (35), Desjardin (13), Rasmussen (16), Panik (14)

4th line players: Danault (14), Mashinter (8), Kruger (3)

A Few Interesting Conclusions:

  • We do have a solid collection of 1st line level production players, showing that, in theory, there is depth to draw from to address the defensive issues
  • Yakupov, for all the criticism he takes, is still putting up 2nd line level numbers on a cheap contract, and Kassian is pro-rating to be a very good addition
  • Pouliot’s contract (and even Purcell’s) isn’t nearly as bad as they seem on first glance for a 1st line forward
  • Since Hendricks, if used as a Center, is 4th line caliber, it shows the flaw in the Oilers roster at 3C.  Plenty of wingers, but unless you slide RNH down to the 3C spot, there’s a serious lack of production in this role
  • Chicago slots almost perfectly into the 3/3/3/3 prediction for points, and the Oilers have stronger C production from the 1st and 2nd lines, and strong winger numbers when contrasted head-to-head.  Overall, the Oilers have a stronger producing lineup, but it also shows the lack of scoring from the defense compared to each other.

So, if build a roster based on scoring numbers, we have:
Hall-McDavid-Eberle (L1)
Kassian-Draisaitl-Yakupov (L2)  <- we are using a 1C level player here, just due to his value to the club
Khaira-(          )-Pakarinen (L3) <- the Oilers could use a proper 3C here
Lander-Letestu-Hendricks (L4) <- Again, we’re using a 3rd line player here, but Hendricks fits this role.

That leaves the following players who can be dealt:  Pouliot, Purcell, RNH, and Korpikoski. Based on this estimation, dealing those 4 players to address defensive issues and the 3C position wouldn’t weaken the Oilers’ scoring at all. They’d actually still have a 1st line C on the 2nd line, and a 3rd line winger on the 4th line.

You could, if needed, classify it as Kassian-RNH-Yakupov as the 2nd line by production also, and then consider the tradable players to be Pouliot, Purcell, Draisaitl, Korpikoski, but for now let’s leave that as a last resort.

Now, if you subscribe to the theory of needing to change the core, you can do this:

Loui Eriksson-McDavid-Kassian <- bring in a veteran UFA who can lead the team
Hall-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi <- mix and match the Top-6 based on chemistry, and plug-in the proper draft player
Khaira-Eller-Pakarinen <- rumor is Eller may be in a Yakupov deal, plug him here
Lander-Letestu-Hendricks <- good defensive line

Now, adding via trade and draft and free agency, you can deal Yakupov, Eberle, RNH, Purcell, Pouliot, Korpikoski to fix the D.  This also changes the core sufficiently, but still has the proper points totals.

Lastly, as a point of curiosity, here are the scoring numbers for Chicago and Edmonton’s defense, also pro-rated:

Chicago: Keith (59), Seabrook (49), Gustafsson (30), Hjalmarsson (23), Svedberg (17), van Riemsdyk (12), Rozsival (14)
Edmonton: Klefbom (33), Sekera (29), Clendening (21), Schultz (18), Davidson (15), Nurse (13), Gryba (9), Fayne (8)

It jumps out very fast how much the Oilers need one or two points-capable defensemen.  If you delete Schultz and Fayne, and replace them with Shattenkirk and Vatanen, it reads:

Edmonton: Shattenkirk (48), Vatanen (43), Klefbom (33), Sekera (29), Clendening (21), Davidson (15), Nurse (13), Gryba (9)

Starts to look (on paper anyhow) much more like how this team should be built.

Hope you enjoyed the read 🙂

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Edmonton Oilers, Micah Kowalchuk, NHL, Prospects

Watching the Tire Fire Burn – Your Weekly BLH Oilers Review

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Hey folks, Micah Kowalchuk here! I’m filling in to provide your “Edmonton Oilers weekly review” this week.

Well, it’s another week of wondering what could have been as an Oilers fan.  Three games played, three losses sustained, and although they put up a fight, it wasn’t enough on any of the three occasions.

Anaheim 5 – Edmonton 3

What the Oilers can take from this game is they put up a solid fight against one of the hottest teams in the league.  Sekera once again proved he was a shrewd signing, ending up even on the +/- on a night where he logged 24 minutes of ice time, took a couple of shots on goal, and even landed one of those rare Sekera bodychecks.

Hall, Eberle and Pouliot all took 4 shots each on goal, and Hall and Draisaitl seemed to wake up from their slumber, however the Oilers still lack a player for that line with the speed to keep up with both who can help hold the zone and cycle the puck in.  As for the rest of the forwards, the McDavid show managed to put up a point at least in support, but for the rest of the forwards, it wasn’t an overly impressive showing.

As for the defense, outside of Sekera, well..  Justin Schultz continues to log heavy ice team (and probably shouldn’t).  I keep thinking there’s a defenseman there to fix still if he could only log 2nd or 3rd pairing minutes, but we may never find out, at least while he wears Oilers silks.  Nurse continues to improve, Davidson continues to be steady, and the right side continues to be a tire fire burning unabated.

On this night, Talbot was the better of the two goaltenders, but with a .897 to his opponent’s .889, you can’t really say either goalie was the reason their team won.  At least this was a competitive fight against a very good club.

Minnesota 5 – Edmonton 2

Well.. This looked a lot like the last game, but against a less impressive opponent.  Once again the McDavid show chipped in a goal, and Nail Yakupov proved that, even if the coaches seem to think he’s actually a 3rd line forward, he does still have arguably the best shot on the team, when he gets the chance to use it.  Beyond that, it was not a good night for the “Old Core” with Hall getting one shot and Eberle 2 shots on net, compared to 4 by Yakupov, 4 by Draisatl and 4 by McDavid.  At least in the team’s defense, Kuemper was stellar tonight with a .939 save percentage, and the Oilers did out-shoot Minnesota and were, arguably, the better team, except when they were required to defend the puck…

This takes us to the defense who, once again, were solid on the left side and terrifying down the right.  You can see this in the fact the coaching staff had Fayne (14:18), Schultz (19:38) and Clendening (15:53) all under 20 minutes played for the first time in ages.  Minnesota was able to feast continually on the powerplay and it showed.  It also didn’t help that Talbot put up an .846 save percentage.  The Oilers really do need to find a backup who can step in once in a while, maybe it’s LB, or maybe it’s time to find a veteran backup.

Avalanche 3 – Edmonton 2

Oh, to have a defenseman who can score.  On a night where Tyson Barrie put 7 shots on goal and scored twice (Yes, 7, I double checked, some defensemen apparently can not only shoot, but hit the net), you realize how much the Oilers need this component.  Once again McDavid managed to record a point, but Pouliot was the only player on the roster to get 4 or more shots on net (and the only goal for that matter).  On Defense, once again the right-side all logged under 20 minutes each, with Fayne (15:13), Schultz (19:15), and Nikitin (13:41 while attempting to impersonate an overmatched Edmonton RHD, and succeeding) in his recall.

And once again Talbot finished under .900, making it 3-for-3 with a save percentage under .900…  At least the week is over..

Thoughts over a Pint

  • Hall and Draisaitl work well together, but a player like Puljujarvi who has size, speed, and defensive ability who could hold the puck in for them would look oh so nice here. It still makes me wonder why they don’t give Kassian a shot here (since he is a RW), at least he can keep up and would provide a physical edge;
  • The McDavid show is consistent lately at getting that one point a game, and it looks like Eberle’s trying harder, but they shouldn’t be shouldering any of the defensive load yet;
  • Mark Letestu, bless his heart, is not a 3C. He was signed to be our new 4C in place of Gordon, but for some reason they keep feeding him powerplay time and more minutes than he should get. For next season, here’s hoping he’s back logging 4th line minutes and whether it’s RNH or someone else, the Oilers need a quality 3C who can handle defensive duties, win a faceoff and still chip in points;
  • I like Cam Talbot, I think he might be a starter, but the Oilers can’t take two gambles in net at the same time. You don’t bring in a pair of younger backups every year and roll the dice, or prospects, or European gambles. You either have a guaranteed starter (Price, Lundqvist) where you can try out a prospect backup knowing your starter can eat minutes, or you back up your new gamble with a quality backup who’s logged heavy time in the league (Neuvirth, Montoya, Griess, Khudobin all come to mind). Giving Talbot a guy like that next season would be better than letting LB come up in the spot;
  • Ok, finding a right-handed defenseman is hard. Other teams realize that also, and settle for putting their best defensemen on the ice together and living with the fact some of them aren’t right-handed. Once Klefbom is back, the top 4 defenseman are Klefbom, Sekera, Davidson, Nurse, then Gryba. In the minors, the best defensemen to bring up are probably Oesterle, then Reinhart, then LaLeggia. So, in that vein, Klefbom-Davidson might as well be our new top pairing for now, with Nurse-Sekera as the second pairing, and then Oesterle-Gryba as our third pairing. Yes, there’s only one true right-hand D in the mix, yes, it’s not optimal, and yes, we’d probably do better icing the best players over worrying about what hand they use (I prefer lefties and righties together too, but..)

So that’s your Edmonton Oilers weekly review! I hope you enjoyed it! Let me know in the comments below what your thoughts are on the week that was for our boys in orange and blue!