All posts by Micah Kowalchuk

Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Micah Kowalchuk, NHL, Trades

Working Out Your Core – 7 Easy Steps to a Stanley Cup

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644mcdavidwingspan

When we talk about the Oilers and what their core should be, there’s plenty of debate between fans who the core pieces are.  There’s discussion of Hall, Eberle, Draisatl, McDavid, Nurse, Klefbom, and the like, but are those truly “core” pieces that can’t be moved, or do we exaggerate how much a team really needs a core like that.  Or do we even have that complete core to work with?

To decide this question, we can look at a team who’s dominated the NHL for the last half a decade, the Chicago Blackhawks.  A core player can be defined as any team member who played reasonable minutes during all of their respective cup wins.

Chicago Blackhawks

Their common players list through all cup wins consists of Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Brent Seabrook, Corey Crawford and Bryan Bickell.  However, Crawford was not the primary goalie during the first cup run, and in fact, saw virtually no ice time, therefore he can be removed from this list.  As for Bryan Bickell, although a large part of one cup run, would not be defined as a core player, and is more still there out of luck than anything else.

That leaves us with:

Patrick Kane, a RW, who for his career has averaged 1.00ppg on the dot.  This is the “sniper”, the player that they count on to score goals and who can be used on either of the top two lines to boost scoring, as he has proven he can put up points wherever he’s used.

Jonathan Toews, a C, who anchors the top line, plays quality defense, wins face-offs, is able to score points when needed, plays an aggressive game, and is the team captain with strong leadership ability

Patrick Sharp, a LW, who provides veteran scoring savvy wherever he’s used in the Top-9, and can help settle down a rookie teammate or help a new teammate get used to the team fast during the stretch run, and can consistently score points for the club regardless of his linemates.

Marian Hossa, a RW, who provides elite-level defensive ability along with solid scoring totals, and alongside Toews gives Chicago a duo who can go power-for-power against any line and provide quality defensive play along with solid offensive punch, and who acts as a mentor to the entire team.

Duncan Keith, a Left-Shooting D, who acts as the anchor on the back end, able to play absurd minutes when needed, provides solid offense from the back end, and can be put out at any time against any player and is able to get the job done, is a true elite defenseman.

Brent Seabrook, a Right-Shooting D, who provides physical play, high-quality scoring, and anchors a second defensive unit that allows Chicago to mix and match partners there as needed while still providing a quality second unit that can match up with most any other club in the league.

Niklas Hjalmarsson, a Left-Shooting D, but who plays primarily with Keith, and is the shut-down minute-eating compliment to Keith that allows him to push the play down the ice while knowing his partner can cover anyone.  Is a true shut-down defenseman who relies on positioning more than physical play.

So, what we have here for a core is a First-Line pair of C/RW who are able to put up points and play against any line in the league and provide quality shut-down play, leadership and mentorship.  From there, we have a pair of quality snipers and point producers who can be used anywhere in the Top-9 and are able to put up points regardless of their linemates.  On the back end, we have an elite top-pairing who can log heavy minutes and do anything asked of them, along with a 3rd defenseman who would be top-pairing for many other clubs anchoring a solid second pairing.

It should be noted that, in their performance, Chicago hasn’t considered the Center spot all that “core-worthy”, and has rotated a cast of players through the 2-4C spots based on deadline pickups and cheap veterans for the most part.  The same applies to goaltending, as, although Crawford has been the starter for the last two cups, Chicago has been unafraid to replace goalies at will as well.

So, if we look at the Oilers roster in terms of the Chicago model, what do we have:  We can call McDavid our future Toews equvailent, although at this point he can’t be said to have that same leadership level, but this should occur.  As for an elite veteran winger who can play alongside him and help shut down the best teams, well, the Oilers utterly lack veteran wingers in their Top-6 with the exception of Purcell, who will never be confused with Hossa.  For an elite winger who can score, Hall can be considered our Kane equivalent, and he has done that job fairly well in the circumstances.  Lastly, as for our Patrick Sharp, the closest to this we have may be Jordan Eberle, who has similar hands.

On the back end, we can consider Klefbom to be a future Hjalmarsson, and they have similar traits and play styles.  It might be that, if we all cross our fingers, Nurse may be a Duncan Seabrook in the future, however we can all admit that will take some time before it may occur.  As for a Duncan Keith, there is nothing resembling this type of player either in our system or on the roster.

That leaves us at: Requiring a veteran, defensively aware, skilled Top-3 winger who can play alongside McDavid, and a top-pairing minute-eating defenseman with the ability to score from the back end.  Now, when you consider the core to be Hall, McDavid, Eberle, Klefbom and Nurse, that does exclude Draisaitl at this point in time.  But, Chicago this year has actually went and obtained a true 2C in exchange for the second veteran winger in Patrick Sharp, so we’ll exchange the Sharp role for the 2C instead, and swap Eberle and Draisaitl as core players.

Applying the Chicago model to our line-up, we have:

Line 1:  xxx-McDavid-xxx

Line 2:  Hall-Draisaitl-xxx

Pairing 1:  Klefbom-xxx

Pairing 2: Nurse-xxx

So, we need an elite veteran winger that can be either a LW or a RW, and we need that elite top-pairing Defenseman.  From this model, we can afford to consider Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov, Benoit Pouliot, Griffin Reinhart, Andrej Sekera, Brandon Davidson, Teddy Purcell and Justin Schultz as all disposable to obtain those two pieces, since Chicago tradition is to fill the remainder of the roster out with prospects, budget signings and trades with other clubs without too much concern.  As for who those players could be, that’s a very difficult question to answer, and to be blunt, the odds on obtaining exact equivalent players is difficult, but for argument’s sake, we can consider Loui Eriksson (a Right-Wing from Boston and pending UFA) to be a possible Hossa, and Kevin Shattenkirk (a Defenseman rumored to be available from St. Louis) to be a possible Duncan Keith.

If you plug them in to the above model, we have:

Line 1:  xxx-McDavid-Eriksson

Line 2: Hall-Draisaitl-xxx

Pairing 1:  Klefbom-Shattenkirk

Pairing 2: Nurse-xxx

 

That leaves us wanting to keep one LW and one RW for our Top-6, and one defenseman for our second pairing on the right side.  On that first line, Chicago has been known to run a banging forward, so we can plug Pouliot back in to that spot.  On the second line, Chicago will usually run a budget forward, usually someone with a physical side to their game, so we’ll plug Kassian in there for now.

On the back end, there is a concern as to the clear fact Nurse will be unable to drive a pairing by himself at this point, however, Sekera is able to play the right-side as well, and his veteran presence will support Nurse here, so we can plug him back in.

That takes us to:

Line 1:  Pouliot-McDavid-Eriksson

Line 2: Hall-Draisatl-Kassian

Pairing 1: Klefbom-Shattenkirk

Pairing 2:  Nurse-Sekera

That allows the Oilers to use Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Griffin Reinhart, Brandon Davidson, Teddy Purcell and Justin Schultz as pieces to flush out the roster and obtain those missing pieces.  Chicago has traditionally not spent significant cash on their 3rd or 4th lines, preferring to flush those out at the deadline or with cheap UFA signings, and the same applies to their 3rd defensive pairing.  This, then, would be the Oilers based on the Chicago model.  You’ll notice there’s no specific 3rd and 4th lines, or 3rd pairing, and that’s due to the fact Chicago tends to address those needs as they come up, and depending on how their payroll fits.

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Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Micah Kowalchuk, NHL

Fixing the Oilers the Trump Way

I know, some people love articles like these, some people hate them, however, for fun, if I were looking to turn this organization around with a little more success, this is what I would do:

Players to keep

Hall-Draisatl-xxx

xxx-McDavid-Yakupov

Pouliot-RNH-Kassian

Korpikoski-Letestu-Hendricks

Klefbom-xxx

Sekera-xxx

Nurse-Gryba

Talbot

There, those are the only players I consider necessary.  And I know, RNH is overpaid at the 3C spot, but that’s fine for now.  So, these are the players I’m leaving out:

Forwards:  Purcell, Eberle, Pakarinen, Klinkhammer, Gazdic

Defense: Davidson, Fayne, Schultz, Ference, Reinhart

Goaltending:  Nilsson

Who’s Coming In?

Now, first things first:  Goaltending, the Oilers need to acquire a stable veteran backup.  Some teams put a prospect here, when they’re supporting a veteran tested goaltender.  We don’t have that.  What the Oilers need is a quality backup who’s been in the show a long time and can get the job done.  And preferably one that can steal games and handle heavy minutes as needed.  My choice there would be Anton Khudobin, a proven backup who can perform on multiple teams.  He’s a low risk choice.  Nilsson can either be kept at the minor league level or, more likely, dealt for a low-end draft pick.  He was a gamble, it failed, we move on.

Next, the forward corps.  I assume Purcell is dealt for a solid pick, Eberle goes as part of fixing our defensive core, and Klinkhammer and Gazdic just don’t get resigned.  Now, the one thing the Oilers have continually refused to do is bring in quality skilled veterans who can play Top-6 minutes, are proven leaders, and have the ability to be role models.

First, on our Top Line, we need a defensively skilled veteran winger who has the speed to keep up.  This doesn’t need to be an elite guy, and it can be a budget signing for now.  Looking at free agency, the names that jump out are Troy Brouwer, Jaromir Jagr, and Kris Versteeg.  Jagr would be a great mentor, but I doubt Florida lets him walk.  My choice here is Kris Versteeg on a 2-year deal.  He’s got good defensive skills, he provides leadership, plays physical, and has the speed to keep up to this line.  I like Pakarinen, but I’d let him develop another year or so in the minors to see if his scoring ability continues to improve.

Moving to McDavid’s line, we want someone there with playmaking ability and defensive awareness who can provide physical play.  Eriksson or Ladd would be great choices here, but I’m unsure how nasty the price tag will be on either one.  However, I’d go for Eriksson.  He’s not overly physical, but his defensive ability is very good, and although his price won’t be cheap, he’d be a very good player for McDavid to have to rely on, and would take some of the defensive lifting off of Yakupov.  If he wants too much term or costs too much, I’d consider bringing in a guy like Alex Tanguay.  Yes, I know, he’s a soft player, but he’s a cup winning veteran with very good hands and his defensive intelligence is underrated (but this would be on a one year deal only).

So we’re now at:

Hall-Draisatl-Versteeg

Eriksson-McDavid-Yakupov

Pouliot-RNH-Kassian

Korpikoski-Letestu-Hendricks

Goal:

Talbot

Khudobin

Fixing the Defense

Now, that takes us to the defense. First up, we all know how much we want Hamonic, but the rumors are he’s going to go in a deal for Trouba, so I’ll sadly accept this as a reality. That leaves us Shattenkirk in the off-season, and possibly Vatanen. Now, with Shattenkirk, I know I wanted to keep RNH, but odds are they’ll ask for him in a deal, and they’ll want a young LHD as well (because they’re weak on the left side). So I’ll sigh and deal RNH and Davidson for Shattenkirk, and ask them to throw in Berglund for our 3C coming back, and ask for a conditional pick as part of the deal until I resign both.

I’ll also assume, other than Eberle, all the rest of our trade bait will likely just fetch us back draft picks, which is simply life these days. At that point, I’ll sigh and call up Anaheim to offer them Eberle for Vatanen. I know, Eberle’s a great player, but we do need defense badly, and we can use the salary room for a couple of quality veterans at forward anyhow. All the players I can deal for picks and prospects I use to replenish the RW and RHD sides.

Your Revised Edmonton Oilers

So, this is what we end up with:

Hall-Draisatl-Versteeg

Eriksson-McDavid-Yakupov

Pouliot-Berglund-Kassian

Korpikoski-Letestu-Hendricks

Klefbom-Shattenkirk

Sekera-Vatanen

Nurse-Gryba

Talbot

Khudobin

So, is this a roster we can actually afford to ice? Yes, this roster works out to be cap compliant with re-signings, and we shed a few high-dollar (for their relative spot) contracts gradually over the next 2 years in Korpikoski and Hendricks (who’ll be replaced with prospects like Slepyshev and Pakarinen). As well, Versteeg would be on a 1-2-year deal, and Pouliot will also wander off down the road at some point. When Draisatl comes up for renewal, we’ll have lost $2.5mil for Korpikoski and $1.85mil for Hendricks that season. When McDavid comes up for renewal, we’ll have also shed $1.8mil for Letestu, and Pouliot will be in his last year and can be traded.

But, for next season, this would be a more veteran team, with stronger hockey IQ, veteran leadership, and not all that much less talent (and quite a bit more talent on the back-end).

Give me your thoughts, feelings, emotions, and/or comments about what I might be drinking today.

Edmonton Oilers, Micah Kowalchuk, NHL, Prospects

How Deep is the Oilers Organizational Depth? Your 5-year Old is Safe to Swim on the Right Side.

Much of our time is spent debating whether we can trade Eberle, RNH or Yakupov to get that defenseman we all covet, and I do that myself.  But, out of curiosity, I thought I’d take a look at what the organization depth chart actually has for pieces, and where our depth is to draft from in a trade.  Just to be completely absurd, I’ve drafted another article where I completely contradict myself and deal both Eberle and RNH, with the justification I acquired veteran replacements.

Ok, so we have for next season the following players:

Left wingers: Taylor Hall, Benoit Pouliot, Lauri Korpikoski, Matt Hencricks

Right wingers: Jordan Eberle, Teddy Purcell (UFA), Nail Yakupov, Zack Kassian, (RFA) Iiro Pakarinen (RFA)

Centers: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisatl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Mark Letestu, Anton Lander

Left Defense: Andrej Sekera, Darnell Nurse, Brandon Davidson (RFA), Andrew Ference, Oscar Klefbom

Right Defense: Justin Schultz (RFA), Mark Fayne, Eric Gryba (UFA), Adam Clendening (RFA)

Goaltending: Cam Talbot, Laurent Brossoit (RFA), Anders Nilsson (RFA)

____________________________________________________________

Top Prospects:

Goal: Laurent Brossoit, Eetu Laurikainen, Zach Nagelvoort

Right Wing: Tyler Pitlick

Left Wing: Anton Slepyshev, Jujhar Khaira, Danill Zharkov, Mitchell Moroz

Center: Bodgan Yakimov, Kyle Platzer, Greg Chase, Tyler Vesel

Left Defense: Griffin Reinhart, Dillon Simpson, Martin Gernat, David Musil, Joey LaLeggia, Jordan Oesterle, William Lagesson, Caleb Jones

Right Defense: Ethan Bear

Of that group, the top prospects are: Slepyshev (7.5), Khaira (7.0), Zharkov (7.0), Reinhart (8.0). Simpson (7.0), Gernat (7.0 – RFA), Musil (7.0 – RFA), Bear (7.0).

In short, 3 LW, 4 LHD, and one RHD.

___________________________________________________________

Now, assuming the Oilers were to let their UFAs go and qualify their RFAs, and we just consider the top-tier of prospects, this is the organizational depth:

Left Wing: Taylor Hall, Beniot Pouliot, Lauri Korpikoski, Matt Hendricks, Anton Slepyshev, Jujhar Khaira, Danill Zharkov

Right Wing: Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov, Zack Kassian, Iiro Pakarinen

Center: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisatl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Mark Letestu, Anton Lander

Left Defense: Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom, Brandon Davidson, Darnell Nurse, Griffin Reinhart, Dillion Simpson, Martin Gernat, David Musil

Right Defense: Justin Schultz, Mark Fayne, Adam Clendening, Ethan Bear

Goaltending: Cam Talbot, Laurent Brossoit, Anders Nilsson.

So, that’s the organizational depth chart including all prospects considered “NHL Caliber”.  What jumps out: There’s a lot of talent down the left, and there’s a brutal lack of it down the right and not a whole lot down the middle.

If the Oilers are going to do any deals, it’s to improve their right side defense and right wing at both the NHL level and the minor league system, or organizational depth at C and G, and the options they have to do that are drawing from their left-side depth.  As much as we all discuss dealing Eberle, Yakupov or RNH, those areas are major team weak spots, and would require replacements coming back in a deal.

At this point, the logical place to draw from is the prospect pool at LW and LHD in exchange for veterans on the Right side.  This something teams like Chicago have been traditionally very good at doing, swapping prospects for prospects that better fit their team.  Now we wait and see how good Chiarelli is at it.

Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Micah Kowalchuk, NHL, Rumors

Just Another Manic Monday as an Oilers Fan

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Well, it is what it is, against horrible defensive teams we’re fine, but if we’re against a team who has defense, our lack of defense shows up.

Our forward corps isn’t bad, but it lacks a few elements.

First, I’d try a Hall-Draisatl-Kassian first line, Purcell’s a skilled defensive veteran, but they need a net-crasher with physical play up there.

Second, Pouliot-McDavid-Eberle have a whopping 4 games together to build chemistry, let’s just give them time.

Third, I’d consider giving Korpikoski-Letestu-Pakarinen the third line spot at this point, the two Finns are playing well together.

Fourth, with Lander-Hendricks-Khaira, that would be a physical fourth line with a ton of faceoff ability and defensive skill. Minimal scoring, but hey.

Fifth, Yakupov really has no place in this lineup right now sadly, he doesn’t fit the needs on the top two lines better than other options, and he’s not a good Bottom-6 piece. The same would apply to using RNH as a Bottom-6 center, and, again, he’s not the right fit in the Top-6, which needs more aggression. And Purcell has value right now, time to make a deal.

However, if you have to keep a piece, you keep RNH, although he’s not a fit in the Top-6 (other than injuries), he IS an upgrade at 3C, if far too expensive in the spot. Korpikoski-RNH-Pakarinen would be an interesting 3rd line, and then Lander-Letestu-Hendricks would be a very skilled defensive 4th line (if lacking in point potential).

So, that leaves Yak, RNH and Purcell as pieces to deal to fix the D, with RNH the one you try to keep.

On the back-end, Klefbom, Sekera, Davidson and Nurse look like keepers. Gryba’s done well, but he’s worth dealing when he’s got good value. Fayne is a bad fit, Schultz needs a change of scenery, it is what it is. And Clendening looked ok in limited time, worth giving him that 3rd pairing.

So, if you put the pieces together we have:

Klefbom-xxx Sekera-Davidson Nurse-Clendening

We end up with Fayne, Schultz, Gryba, Purcell, Yakupov, Reinhart, and as a last resort RNH as the pieces we can deal to fix that top-pairing RHD spot.

Now, odds are no one gets picked up this season, going into next season, depending on who signs where, odds are Hamonic, Shattenkirk and Vatanen will be the options if any for now. Hamonic requires a quality RHD in a deal, or a good D-man and a RW, but the only way the Oilers get that deal done is a Schultz+Yakupov+1st round pick for Hamonic and a salary like Clutterbuck coming back, and I’d venture Schultz has played his way out of this being a realistic deal, nor that Chiarelli wants to give up that pick.

Shattenkirk, odds are they either go for Drouin or wait until the off-season.

So, that leaves us with Anaheim and Vatanen. Now, Anaheim’s a team desperate for scoring and they’ve shown they’re willing to take chances. If the Oilers were to offer Yakupov, Purcell (50% retained), and Gryba (50% retained), it’s possible Anaheim listens, especially if the Oilers will take back a more expensive forward, such as Chris Stewart. It might be that the Oilers need to throw in a 2nd round pick to get it done, but that’s the most likely option. It helps that Yakupov is a cheap contract at $2.5mil and Anaheim’s not a cap team, so that adds to his value, and since Vatanen’s on their 3rd pairing right now, a guy like Gryba (who’ll be a cheap re-signing) who plays with the classic Anaheim physical style, it might just be enough to play “Let’s make a deal”.

I can understand doubting it, but here’s how Anaheim looks after the deal.

Perron-Getlaf-Perry (Was Perron-Getzlaf-Stewart)

Purcell-Kesler-Yakupov (Was Maroon-Rakell-Perry)

Silfverberg – Rakell – Stewart (Was Cogliano-Kesler-Silfverberg)

Maroon-Cogliano-Santorelli, with Garbutt as 13th forward. (Was Garbutt-Thompson-Santorelli)

On the back-end, they have:

Fowler-Bieksa

Lindholm-Manson

Despres-Gryba (Was Despres-Vatanen)

Overall, the scoring potential and depth at forward looks far stronger now, and with Purcell and Kesler, Yakupov won’t need to do anything defensive other than hammer the puck on the net to earn his pay cheque.

Now, for the Oilers, if you plug Vatanen into that D corps alongside Klefbom, suddenly it looks acceptable. Sure, it’s not ideal having Davidson play on his off-side, but the idea of Klefbom-Vatanen, Sekera-Davidson, Nurse-Clendening is a lot more respectable and has significantly higher puck moving abilities than before, which is what a fast-moving team like the Oilers needs to execute a breakout. Plus, the powerplay now has Klefbom-Vatanen as PP1, with Sekera-Clendening as PP2. That starts to look far more dangerous.

Now, this isn’t to say that it’s not worth pursuing a Shattenkirk or a Hamonic for the top pairing by any means, and it’s possible RNH is required at that point to obtain one, but both will likely be off-season deals, at which point Chiarelli has Fayne, Schultz, RNH and probably a guy like Davidson to use in order to obtain one.

As an additional point, Talbot’s numbers (regardless of the bad stretch) are consistent with a starting NHL goalie, if not a star goalie. Nilsson, on the other hand, has reverted to his previous NHL/AHL levels, but was a worthwhile experiment. However, there’s no real need to obtain some elite goalie. It may be that Brossoit is ready for next season, and if not, a veteran backup can be obtained in free agency. If you look at LA, NYI, PHI, they all obtained a standard backup in free agency who have been more than effective in their roles (Neuvirth, Greiss and Enroth), so this isn’t an area worth expending too much effort in and can be addressed easily enough. (Ramo, Khudobin, Stalock, Johnson, Enroth, Montoya, Raanta are all pending UFAs who would be solid backup options for next season if LB requires more seasoning).