Okay, so I’ve had some time to digest the Nail Yakupov trade. If you follow me on Twitter (@beerleagueheroe), you probably already know my stance on it but if you don’t I’ll give it one more time and I’ll toss in my take on the Russell signing.
REHABILITATING THE DRESSING ROOM
Take a look at the big names Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli has traded in the last 3 months.
Taylor Hall
Nail Yakupov
Would you say that these two players could’ve been arguably the team’s biggest distractions? I would. Might you infer that one out of the two had trouble fitting into the Oilers system of play? I would infer that. Is it remotely possible that either or both of them perhaps wanted to move on due to conflicts with coaching or management? I reckon there’s a possibility of that.
Listen, Chiarelli has not only revamped this team in a MAJOR way since he took over but he’s rid the dressing room of, and I’ll be frank here, its divas.
When you ask for a trade and/or have a public conflict with the coach on national TV, those are signs of complete selfishness. When you constantly tell the press that you’re just going to do things the way you have been and aren’t interested in changing your game… Again, selfishness creeps its way in.
Well kids, the players that may or may not have exhibited those characteristics are now gone and replaced with “team-first” guys. Milan Lucic, Kris Versteeg (maybe), Adam Larsson, Drake Caggiula, and Kris Russell are team first type of players.
What’s that? You don’t think their fancies look great? Tough sh*t. They’ve got some history of injuries. Tough titty little kitty but the milk is all gone. Chia is putting his stamp on this team and its locker room and if there’s an Oiler that thinks he’s bigger than the collective, SEE YA!
YAK NAILED!
I feel bad for Yak because his personality was so infective. He looked like a good guy and by all accounts he was a great guy who worked hard but I watched him in that game versus Winnipeg last week and I had no idea what he was doing for a good portion of the time he was on the ice.
The Oilers DID NOT want to go into the season with the Yak distraction ongoing. Simple as that. And the other thing is, his value was a 5th rounder!!! What did Chiarelli get for Yak? A 3rd rounder, possibly a 2nd, and a dodgy prospect that won’t be re-signed. The Oilers got exactly what they were asking for him at the draft AND they didn’t need to retain salary. BOOM!
Another tell was when Ken Hitchcock was talking about acquiring him and saying that he was in no rush to make him a 200ft player. Well of course not! Hitch will “nail” his ass to the bench or pressbox and then let Mike Yeo take over when he retires… Hitchcock said they were going to play to Yak’s strengths, right? I’m sure getting him on a line with the sensational playmaker Patrik Berglund on the Blues’ 3rd line is going to bring out the Stamkos-like scoring…
I’m happy that Yak will get an opportunity (maybe) in another city but he is literally the modern-day Alexandre Daigle. Check the stats kids… Nearly identical.
Did the Oilers improve by trading Nail Yakupov? IF Versteeg is signed and stays healthy, then yes. I reckon the Oilers have their eyes on Puljujarvi spending some time in Yak’s old slot and that isn’t a sound idea in my opinion. Slepyshev or Pitlick could be slotted in there. Hell, Lander could line up there too.
I think the addition by subtraction adage holds true here and I suppose that makes me the second person to say that with regards to Yakupov.
RUSSELL THE LOVE MUSCLE
Just a few things on the Russell signing.
I was not a fan beforehand because all I really had to go on was the analysis’ done by numbers guys. I watched him against the Canucks and I wasn’t disappointed. He did come out on the short end of the Corsi game but to my eye I thought he played well given he hadn’t gone through camp and that was his first game action with the team.
Russell can skate and move the puck and he’s a beauty in the dressing room. He’s basically an older version of Oesterle and there’s a good chance that he could be moved at the deadline (if the Oilers are out of it) for a tasty draft pick.
Russell pushes younger players down the depth chart a bit and at this point, that’s a good thing. Reinhart obviously needs some more time, as does Nurse.
RHINO
Okay, Griffin Reinhart… If you’re watching Matt Barzal and his push to make the Islanders AND thinking back at how bad this trade looks, you’re doing yourself a disservice.
Matt Barzal is looking like he will make it to the last round of cuts for the Islanders but he did that last year and was sent back. I watched a bit of him today and there’s no doubt that there is a player there but he’s not ready yet. I heard that there’s a chance he might play on Tavares’ wing? Not a chance he gets that kind of cherry ice while Ho-Sang and Dal Colle tear it up in the AHL.
Johnny Boychuk played nearly 400 games in the AHL before making it up the NHL for good. A lot of good dmen had to get to at least 100 games in the minors before being brought up for the long haul. Griffin Reinhart has yet to hit 90. Let’s let him find his game in the AHL before declaring him a bust.
Those are my thoughts at the moment. Let me know how you feel in the comments below!
*Friend of the blog and future addition to the roster, Michael Gerber (@gerberoo), has gifted us with a beauty of a post! It will appeal to both the stats geeks and those of you who are partial to the eye test. Mr.Gerber is a fantastic writer and I’m excited that he’s considering joining us! Let us know what you think of his post in the comments below! Enjoy!*
Oiler Line Combinations 2016/17
Line combinations in the NHL are fluid, they will change from game to game, week to week and I suspect we will see several different combinations again this year. The coaching staff will experiment with a few new faces and others that didn’t get a full training camp and/or season with the team.
With that said thanks to the excellent resources at puckalytics.com and their superb multi-player WOWY tool as well as the new “WoodMoney” analytic by WoodGuy and G Money there is a mathematical approach we can look at to see how best to fit the pieces together.
The Top 9 Forward Candidates
Connor McDavid
Generational player in the making, the analytics truly support this as well. Connor makes every player he plays with a ton better.
Patrick Maroon’s most common linemates in Anaheim were Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf and he never managed more than 11 goals in an NHL season. In Edmonton with McDavid, he scored 8 in just 16 games!
(Nail Yakupov also posted his best numbers by a country mile with 97.)
What do the numbers say about Connor McDavid?
P/60 2016
Rank NHL
Rank Among C
Dangerous Fenwick For%
Against Elite
Against Average
Against Poor
Goals For%
2.69
2nd
1st
55%
50.7%
53.3%
62.2%
50.7%
Role according to the Statistics: 1st line C
Milan Lucic
Milan is a newcomer to the Oilers but has been a successful NHL player for many years. He will be given his opportunity to play with Connor McDavid early and often. Benoit Pouliot and Patrick Maroon did exceptionally well with McDavid and they are clearly a class below this player.
Milan has put up 30 goals in his career before and by no means is he old at 28. If Patrick Maroon’s best season was 11 goals and put up 8 in just 16 games with McDavid I don’t see Milan repeating a 30 goal year in the next couple seasons as an unrealistic possibility.
A common misconception is that Milan has had the benefit of playing with elite players to pad his numbers. In fact, his dangerous Fenwick for% relative to his teammates is a positive number meaning that he consistently outperforms his fellow top 6 teammates.
What do the numbers say about Milan Lucic?
P/60 2016
Rank NHL
Rank Among LW
Dangerous Fenwick for%
Against Elite
Against Average
Against Poor
Goals For%
2.04
41st
9th
57.9%
54.5%
57%
63.9%
61.4%
Role according to the Statistics: 1st line LW
Jordan Eberle
Eberle has been a model of consistency offensively and more stellar offensive play should be expected from him in the coming season. There’s opportunity to play with any one of 3 excellent centers but especially with Connor McDavid where he found instant chemistry in a complimentary sniper role.
What do the numbers say about Jordan Eberle?
P/60 2016
Rank NHL
Rank among RW
Dangerous Fenwick for%
Against Elite
Against Average
Against Poor
Goals For%
1.85
83rd
19th
51.1%
49.1%
52.9%
50.9%
44.8%
Role according to the Statistics: 1st line RW
LeonDraisaitl
Leon found instant success last year from the minute he was recalled alongside Taylor Hall. Taylor is gone but Leon is a notable player who should find his game with a new supporting cast as well.
Leon showed excellent versatility and could be moved to the wing also. I would seriously caution against playing Anton Lander or Mark Letestu in a 3rd line role though so I fully expect Edmonton to play him up the middle.
What do the numbers say about Leon Draisaitl?
P/60 2016
Rank NHL
Rank among Centers
Dangerous Fenwick for%
Against Elite
Against Average
Against Poor
Goals For%
2.20
20th
11th
54.2%
53.1%
50.9%
59.7%
51.1%
Role according to the Statistics: 1st line C
Benoit Pouliot
While often overlooked Benoit Pouliot’s contribution to every line he is put on at any level of the depth chart has been substantial. Pouliot has the ability to slot up and down the lineup and be effective.
What do the numbers say about Benoit Pouliot?
P/60 2016
Rank NHL
Rank among LW
Dangerous Fenwick for%
Against Elite
Against Average
Against Poor
Goals For%
2.05
37th
7th
48.4%
42.4%
52%
51.3%
44.6%
Role according to the Statistics: 2nd line LW. Although the offensive output was surprisingly elite Pouliot did not appear to do well against top competition.
Nail Yakupov
Nail is the wildcard in this group. A perennial disappointment, Yakupov now has several years of analytics to break down and the numbers aren’t pretty. Offensively he is a 3rd line player, defensively he is a massive liability and his WOWY (With or Without You) numbers show that he makes nearly every player he plays with worse. I have had the most trouble placing this player since he is neither an offensive powerhouse or versatile enough to be put on a tough minutes line.
At first glance the assumption was if I have to place him somewhere, I’m nearly inclined for that somewhere to be the pressbox, however thanks to the WoodMoney analytic things look a little better for Yak in a depth role. Yakupov, by this metric, shows that he holds his own against most of the NHL in dangerous chances in either direction.
What do the numbers say about Nail Yakupov?
P/60 2016
Rank NHL
Rank among RW
Dangerous Fenwick for%
Against Elite
Against Average
Against Poor
Goals For%
1.35
209th
58th
49.3%
42.2%
49.7%
55.8%
42.1%
Role according to the Statistics: 3rd line RW.
Patrick Maroon
Patrick Maroon came in like a man on a mission last year, re-invigorated by the opportunity to play with Connor McDavid. Maroon took full advantage and potted 8 goals in just 16 games with McDavid. Yakupov, by comparison, scored only twice in nearly the same amount of ice-time as Maroon with 97.
Maroon has had success with star caliber players and had undeniable chemistry with McDavid that surpassed that of Pouliot, Eberle or Yakupov’s. He also brings undeniable qualities as far as his attitude, size, and power.
What do the numbers say about Patrick Maroon?
P/60 2016
Rank NHL
Rank among LW
Dangerous Fenwick for%
Against Elite
Against Average
Against Poor
Goals For%
1.41
188th
43rd
51.5%
47.3%
49.1%
56.7%
46.7%
Role according to the Statistics: 2nd line LW.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
RNH had an awful season last year. I believe we have to give him the benefit of the doubt with the injury and not playing at 100% at any point in the season. The stats below indicate that he was the worst player of any of the Oilers top 9 hopefuls but we all know Nuge to be a far better player than what was on offer.
What do the numbers say about Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?
P/60 2016
Rank NHL
Rank among C
Dangerous Fenwick for%
Against Elite
Against Average
Against Poor
Goals For%
1.36
202nd
86th
45.3%
41.1%
46.9%
48.6%
45.7%
Role according to the Statistics: 3rd line C, but in reality, he is a very good 2nd line C.
Kris Versteeg
Versteeg could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back for Nail Yakupov. The veteran, versatile, cup-winning two-way winger brings more offense and a lot more defense to the table than Yakupov. If Puljujarvi impresses too and makes the team out of camp Yakupov could find himself traded, scratched or possibly even waived.
What do the numbers say about Kris Versteeg?
P/60 2016
Rank NHL
Rank among RW
Dangerous Fenwick for%
Against Elite
Against Average
Against Poor
Goals For%
1.6
139th
35th
54.2%
51%
53.2%
58.2%
50.7%
Role according to the Statistics: 2nd line RW.
Jesse Puljuajrvi
Unfortunately we can’t take a statistical approach to Jesse at the NHL level, however, Jesse successfully played against men for the last 2 seasons and recorded the second best point total by an underage player at the World Juniors in its history. This leads us to project him as at least a 50% player meaning at the least he wouldn’t drag down his linemates.
The expectation by Chiarelli was that he is NHL ready. This suggestion should be taken seriously and I suspect he is given a top 9 role on this team if not right out of camp, not too longer afterwards. While Draisaitl was not ready for the NHL at 18 Puljujarvi is a different case as he has been playing professional hockey at a high level for multiple seasons.
Piecing it All Together
Using the multi-player WOWY tool from Puckalytics we can see how combinations of Oilers performed together. For the purpose of this article, we have used the last two seasons of data.
I have run the data on every available combination from the players above. Only the top 3 most reasonable options are discussed.
1st Line Options
Option 1 – Lucic-McDavid-Eberle – This line is most likely going to get a shot together and deservedly so. We don’t have data on how Lucic might interact with McDavid or Eberle but we do know that Lucic has been a positive presence on similar lines and has increased the stats of his linemates consistently; generally increasing his line mates Goal for% and Corsi for% by 1% on average.
Option 2 – Maroon – McDavid – Eberle – This unit performed exceptionally well together last year.
Option 3 – Pouliot – McDavid – Yakupov – This trio was excellent together too, but primarily faced second or third line opponents, rarely the toughest matchup’s and an extremely low defensive zone start % making the numbers slightly unreliable in direct comparison.
Also in consideration was a Lucic – McDavid – Puljujarvi combo but there would be zero available data other than a “hunch” worthwhile presenting.
Results:
Sample TOI
Goals for per 60 Minutes
Goals For %
Corsi For %
Defensive Zone Start %
Expected CF%
(27) 97-14
364 Min
3.79
53.5%
52.4%
33.8%
53.4%
19-97-14
119 Min
4.52
69.2%
48%
36.5%
48%
67-97-10
128 Min
4.21
56.3%
51.5%
16.4%
51.5%
Best Combination
Lucic – McDavid – Eberle
This line is capable of playing in all situations against any competition and would not need sheltered zone starts. This is a powerhouse line that can control the game by not only negating the other team’s top line but putting the gears to them.
2nd Line Options
With the 1st line decided, Jordan Eberle is off the table. I have however included a trio of Pouliot-RNH-Eberle as they were very good together as a top line previously and as a second line, they could do some real damage. If Yakupov, Versteeg or Puljuajrvi play well enough to take on Eberle’s role on the top line this is a very intriguing possibility.
For the Maroon – Nuge – Draisaitl combination there was only 32 seconds of data with all three together and only 5 minutes of Nuge and Maroon so we’ll look instead at Nuge-Drasaitl and Draisaitl-Maroon independently and pro-rate the data based on sample size.
Top 3 Results:
Sample TOI
Goals for per 60 Minutes
Goals For %
Corsi For %
Defensive Zone Start %
Expected CF%
67-93-14
558 Min
2.79
48.1%
53.7%
22.3%
53.7%
67-93 (JP)
634 Min
2.74
45.3%
51.9%
22.8%
51.9%
19 + 29
64 Min
3.74
57.1%
57.3%
27%
57.1%
93 + 29
100 Min
4.16
63.6%
50.8%
24.6%
50.8%
19-93-29
No Data
53.26%
Best Combination
Maroon – Nuge – Draisaitl however both of the individual pair results may have been influenced by the Hall factor which I will speak more to below.
If Draisaitl is placed on the wing, however, center ice is shallow and the best line combination for balance is Pouliot – Nuge – Puljujarvi.
3rd Line Options
What we have left for the third line options are Maroon, Draisaitl, Yakupov, and Versteeg. Draisaitl and Maroon played a fair amount of time together last season with fantastic results; all of these minutes however Taylor Hall was also on the ice.
Results:
Sample TOI
Goals for per 60 Minutes
Goals For %
Corsi For %
Defensive Zone Start %
Expected CF%
19 + 29 (All data with Hall on ice as well)
64 Min
3.74
57.1%
57.3%
27%
57.1%
19-29 (10)
51%
19-29(Versteeg)
53%
I don’t expect Draisaitl and Maroon to realistically post anywhere near 57% corsi over a long haul but with the right zone start and 3rd line opponents they, even with Yakupov in tow, could post a 50%+ rating as far as possession.
Best Combination
Maroon – Drasiaitl – Versteeg
Therefore our final top 9 combinations look like this:
With these combinations deployed correctly, the Oilers could have 50%+ control of possession across all three lines. Important as well is that there is no one pushed up the lineup (barring injury) to a role they are unsuited to play. Lucic, McDavid, and Eberle are all 1st line quality players.
Pouliot and Nugent-Hopkins are both excellent 2nd line players and Puljuajrvi could well be ready for this role as well.
Maroon, Draisaitl, and Versteeg are all second line capable and should face a lot of easier minutes as a third line.
Balance is the name of the game for the Oilers roster and it looks as though they finally have some. Despite the loss of Taylor Hall the Oiler forward group for 2016-17 is more balanced by bringing in Lucic on the left side and Puljujarvi and Versteeg on the right side. Having a three right shots in the top 9 (Instead of Jordan Eberle on an island alone) should not be understated. The Oilers team last year tried to deploy an army of left-handed shots, not just on D but up front as well, which is not a recipe for success. What that was a recipe for instead was a double special teams dose of Mark Letestu on the PK and power play, primarily because of his handedness.
We’re getting very close to a roster with elite skill, talented two-way complimentary players with size and skill that are all suited for their role in the lineup and can also play up and down the lineup as necessary. Gone are the days of one-dimensional skill players.
As with every new season, there seems to be room for optimism, but for once it may not be an act of futility. The forwards, of course, are only one element of the team so we wait to see how improved the D is, but the forward group is looking better than ever on paper.
Click the pic and grab the new 16-bit Puljujarvi tee!
The idea of defense handedness is now well established I think – we recognize that ‘off hand’ defensemen often pay a penalty in terms of effectiveness.
Click the pic and grab the new 16-bit Puljujarvi tee!
Since some wingers also play on their off hand (a right shot left wing, or a left shot right wing), a few weeks ago I was mulling the idea of winger handedness.
Conventional wisdom suggests that doing this allows for:
Greater effectiveness in the offensive zone (with the shot having a better angle to the net), but
Less effectiveness in the defensive zone, where stick-off-boards makes for tougher defending and zone exits.
Dallas Eakins even experimented with putting Nail Yakupov (left shot right wing) on the left wing to try to manage his defensive woes (though this just seemed to confuse the young lad more).
I began to wonder if anyone has looked more broadly to see whether off-hand wingers are demonstrably more or less effective than on-hand wingers. I put the idea out on Twitter, asking if anyone knew of work that had been done in the area.
It sparked an interesting and widespread debate, but it appears that it’s a relatively understudied issue. This work by Arik Parnass (just hired by COL) vis a vis the power play was interesting.
But other than that, I found little or nothing specific to wingers.
So … why not do some initial digging into the idea? Start by comparing wingers on their on hands vs wingers on their off hands, and see if there is a meaningful result as far as differences in points or shots or offense/defense.
Data
To pull this data, I used as my starting point the NHL ‘statsapi’ JSON live feed data.
This is an unusual source of data in that most fanalysts scrape the NHL roster sheets for player data. However, I have found the NHL roster sheets problematic for identifying positions (for example, Jordan Eberle has been listed as a C since he entered the league), while the JSON data entirely by visual scan appears to be more accurate. Plus it very conveniently embeds the required data on player handedness.
So I used that.
The rest of the data for the players (boxcars and shot metrics) are scraped from the more conventional NHL game sheet data sources. All data used is for the 2015-2016 season. Any errors therein are my own, unless in the NHL data.
Process
As a starting point, I decided I would look at just a handful of key data points for comparison:
points per game at even strength (EVP/Gm)
goals per game at even strength (EVG/Gm)
even strength shot attempts, percentage (CF%) as well as for and against rates per 60 (CF/60, CA/60) so as to be able to separate defensive and offensive effectiveness
My own “Dangerous Fenwick” statistic, a distance and shot type weighted danger metric. Again, percentage and for and against rates.
I did not filter the wingers for TOI or games played – if a player appeared on any game roster in 2015-2016 listed as right or left wing, that player was included in my data set. Measuring the effectiveness of a group like this suggests that we should include the ones who were ‘cup of coffee’ or bottom of roster types.
The wingers were separated into four groups: Left Wing/Left Shot, Left Wing/Right Shot, Right Wing/Right Shot, and Right Wing/Left Shot. I then pulled demographic data, specifically country of origin and primary team in 2015, for each group.
Country of origin became of interest when I noted that the two off-hand wingers on the Oilers (Nail Yakupov and Anton Slepyshev*) are both Russian. In the same way that there is a distinct American bias in right handed defensemen, I wondered if there is a geographic bias in the development of off hand wingers.
*”Slappy” is listed as LW by the NHL, but by recollection the Oilers used him as a right winger at times. Not sure which is correct. This is another reminder that no dataset is ever 100% accurate. We rely on data volume to account for such natural variability.
Raw Counts
Left Wing / Left Shot
155
Right Wing / Right Shot
113
Left Wing / Right Shot
19
Right Wing / Left Shot
46
On hand wingers are clearly the most common situation. Left wingers outnumber right wingers, just as LHD outnumber RHD.
The most common role for off hand wingers is a left shot right wing.
Team by Team
Counts for the categories of wingers by team are as follows (maximums are highlighted):
Team
LW/LS
LW/RS
RW/LS
RW/RS
On Hand
Off Hand
ANA
5
0
0
6
11
0
ARI
7
1
2
3
10
3
BOS
2
0
1
4
6
1
BUF
7
1
0
3
10
1
CAR
8
0
0
1
9
0
CBJ
7
0
1
5
12
1
CGY
7
0
2
2
9
2
CHI
5
1
2
4
9
3
COL
5
1
2
3
8
3
DAL
4
1
1
3
7
2
DET
6
1
4
0
6
5
EDM
7
1
1
5
12
2
FLA
3
2
2
1
4
4
LAK
6
0
1
1
7
1
MIN
5
1
1
4
9
2
MTL
7
1
1
5
12
2
NJD
8
0
1
5
13
1
NSH
3
3
3
1
4
6
NYI
6
1
1
4
10
2
NYR
5
0
2
2
7
2
OTT
7
0
1
6
13
1
PHI
3
0
1
3
6
1
PIT
6
1
2
6
12
3
SJS
3
0
1
3
6
1
STL
3
0
5
3
6
5
TBL
4
0
2
4
8
2
TOR
4
2
3
6
10
5
VAN
6
0
2
7
13
2
WPG
3
0
1
8
11
1
WSH
3
1
0
5
8
1
Though the numbers vary across the league, few teams look overly unusual in usage. St. Louis (unusually high off hand RW) and Carolina (just one natural RW) both stand out to me.
Country of Origin
The following chart shows country of origin for each of the four categories of wingers:
Any country that did not have at least 10% representation in any one category was lumped together into Team Europe. If it’s good enough for the World Cup, it’s good enough for me!
Canada produces disproportionately fewer left shot right wingers, while Russia and Sweden produce disproportionately more off hand wingers.
There is a clear geographic bias to off handedness in wingers.
Effectiveness
The performance of the different categories of wingers is summarized in the following table.
Category
EVP/Gm
EVG/Gm
CF%
CF/60
CA/60
DFF%
DFF/60
DFA/60
LW/LS
0.33
0.14
49.1%
53.8
55.9
48.9%
38
39.8
RW/RS
0.32
0.14
49.5%
54.6
55.7
49.5%
38.2
39
LW/RS
0.37
0.18
50.6%
56.5
55.1
51.0%
39.1
37.5
RW/LS
0.38
0.16
50.6%
55.9
54.6
50.3%
39.4
38.9
* Technical note: The shot metrics are grouped i.e. the raw for and against counts are summed for each group, then divided by total (or summed EVTOI) to produce the percentage and the rates.
Notice something interesting: off hand wingers are producing slightly but distinctly better results than their on hand counterparts in every category. The off hand wingers score more points, more goals, and have better Corsi and Danger metrics.
This is the reverse of what is observed with defensemen, where being on the off hand typically carries a penalty. With wingers, it appears to confer an advantage.
Furthermore, the improvement is not solely because of greater offensive impact (as you’d expect) – rather, both the for and against shot rates are slightly better.
This is not entirely expected.
Statistical Validity
Of course, the differences between each of these two groups, while distinct, may not be statistically valid given the inherent variance within the two groups.
To test this, I used a Welch’s t test (assuming independent samples with different variances) to compare each of the two groups of left and right wingers. I used CF% and points/game as the comparison statistics for test.
Note that the underlying data set for the purposes of this test treats each players seasonal results for CF% and points/game as one data point (different from the summary table above).
The results are somewhat counterintuitive:
Wing
Metric
tcrit
p
Note
Right
CF%
11.87
2.48E-016
Highly significant difference between on and off hand RW
Left
CF%
-1.94
0.07
Significant at 10% level, not at 5% level, for off hand LW
Right
Pts/60
0.89
0.38
Not significant
Left
Pts/60
-1.12
0.28
Not significant
The only statistic that was significant at 95% confidence was CF% for right wingers. Off hand right wingers produce a higher CF%, and the result is statistically highly significant.
The CF% difference for off vs on hand left wingers was significant at the 90% confidence level, but not the 95% level.
That RW is significant and LW is not despite being similar in magnitude is likely entirely due to the sample size, given there are only 19 off hand left wingers.
If I had applied a TOI filter, I suspect this would likely reduce the variance observed in the data and may have effected significance as well. (Next time)
The difference in points/game between on and off hand for both left and right wingers was not statistically significant.
Conclusion
At least one of the statistics show that there is a statistically significant difference between on hand and off hand wingers
In general, off hand wingers had overall numbers that showed them to be more effective than on hand wingers, even from a shot suppression point of view. This is surprising.
There is a distinct geographic bias in off hand winger country of origin, with Russia and Sweden being unusually common sources, while Canada is distinctly less proportionately likely to produce left shot right wingers.
It remains unclear, but it’s possible that a part of the reason for the better off-hand numbers may boil down to a handful of superstar players. Ovechkin is one. And one of the highest scoring lines in the league features two off-handers (Patrick Kane and geriatric Calder winner Panarin), which is itself a point of interest.
This is a 40,000 ft view of the topic, but after this initial look, I would conclude that a deeper study on the topic is definitely warranted.
Particularly in identifying whether the apparent effectiveness of off hand wingers is a broad effect, or a narrow one confined to a handful of top players. Or is it selection bias, where only the best off hand wingers get played on the ‘wrong’ side in the first place? And if it is a broad effect, why does the difference manifest in both offensive and defensive zone shot metrics, and not just on the offensive side?
And from there, understanding ultimately whether the effect has any tactical or roster implications for NHL teams.
The main man over at All In Hockey is Scott Maran (@realallinhockey) and he’s ever-so-graciously offered to give us a sneak peek at All In Hockey’s Edmonton Oilers Fantasy Hockey Preview! It’s not a complete preview but a snapshot of what Scott thinks the Oilers top forwards, dmen, and starting goalie are capable of next season. Basically, the only players you really want to be concerning yourself with for your fantasy hockey team.
Now you might not know about All In Hockey right now but you should get to know it because it’s a real up-and-comer in the hockey blogosphere!
Click the logo to head over to All In Hockey right now!What’s in store for the Edmonton Oilers in 2016/17?
Milan Lucic – Connor McDavid – Jordan Eberle Benoit Pouliot –Ryan Nugent-Hopkins– Zack Kassian Patrick Maroon –Leon Draisaitl – Nail Yakupov Matt Hendricks – Mark Letestu – Iiro Pakarinen
Oscar Klefbom – Adam Larsson Andrej Sekera – Mark Fayne Brandon Davidson – Darnell Nurse
Cam Talbot – Jonas Gustavsson
Thoughts:
* I’m sure Connor McDavid’s linemates will change frequently throughout the season but Milan Lucic should get a lot of time next to him
* The Oilers defense is still a little weak but Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson will give them at least one defensively reliable pairing
* While I’m a big supporter of Nail Yakupov playing with Connor McDavid, the Oilers staff doesn’t seem to love that idea
* If Jesse Puljujarvi makes the team, he’d probably start on the third line with Patrick Maroon and Leon Draisaitl, bumping Nail Yakupov to the second line and Zack Kassian to the fourth line. Or, Puljujarvi could start on the second line and Yakupov would stay on the third line.
Projections (82 GP)
Connor McDavid- 34 goals, 55 assists, 89 points
Last year McDavid had one of the most impressive seasons by a rookie, scoring 48 points in only 45 games with the Oilers. Only two other players in the entire NHL had a higher point-per-game rate than McDavid and he actually scored at a better rate than superstars like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Tyler Seguin and Joe Thornton. Expect much of the same dominance from McDavid as he continues his ascent to the top of the league.
Jordan Eberle- 28 goals, 34 assists, 62 points
At the start of the season last year, Eberle had scored at least 60 points for the past four years in a row, even breaking the 70-point mark in 2012. However, last season Eberle only managed to tally 47 points in 69 games, a 56-point pace over 82-games. Most of the reason for this can be explained by an abnormal lack of powerplay success, with Eberle only recording four powerplay assists. If Eberle had recorded his average amount of powerplay assists last year, he’d have scored a total of 55 points in 69 games, a much better 65-point pace. Considering Eberle should be a bit more luckier on the powerplay next year and has been shooting the puck a lot more too, there’s good upside in drafting Eberle this year.
Milan Lucic- 23 goals, 36 assists, 59 points
If you thought playing with Anze Kopitar would increase Lucic’s value, just imagine what McDavid will do. Last year McDavid showed that he had a profound effect on his linemate’s point totals and Lucic won’t be any different. Scoring 20 goals and 35 assists last year, Lucic should do even better this season now that he’s lining up next to “The Next One” himself. Don’t expect anything too crazy but Lucic will probably end somewhere close to 60 points.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins- 23 goals, 32 assists, 55 points
Injuries have plagued Nugent-Hopkins’ career so far but if he can stay on the ice, he should be a lock for 50 points. Scoring only 34 points in 55 games, Nugent-Hopkins had one of his worst statistical years last season as he averaged 50 points over 82 games. However, in the two seasons prior to that, he scored 56 points in 80 games and then 56 points in 76 games. With Nugent-Hopkins rated 244th by Yahoo, he could easily outperform his draft position.
Benoit Pouliot- 20 goals, 35 assists, 45 points
Ever since coming to the Oilers, Pouliot has actually been very productive. In his first season, he managed to score 19 goals and 15 assists in only 58 games, averaging out to a 48-point pace over a full 82-game schedule. Then, in his second year as an Oiler, Pouliot improved on those numbers by notching
36 points in 56 games, 53 points over 82 games. However, Pouliot might see a bit of a decline in production this year since it’ll be harder for him to get playing time next to McDavid. 16 out of his 26 even-strength points were scored when McDavid was on the ice with him last year but with Lucic on the team now, Pouliot will probably be stuck on the second line.
Oscar Klefbom- 6 goals, 27 assists, 33 points
If Klefbom had played in full 82-game seasons, he would probably have close to two 30-point seasons under his belt already. In his second year in the NHL, Klefbom only played in 69 games but was able to tally 20 points. Averaged out to 82 games and Klefbom would have had a 27-point season. But then last year, in only 30 games, Klefbom scored 12 points, a 33-point pace. If Klefbom can manage to play the entire year this season, I don’t see why he can’t post 30+ points with an outside shot at 40. He’ll probably finish with somewhere around 35 points but if he keeps progressing and takes some more powerplay time, 40 points isn’t completely out of the question.
Adam Larsson- 5 goals, 25 assists, 30 points
Larsson may have changed teams but I don’t think it will affect his fantasy potential too much. On the Devils, Larsson never showed much offensive potential and was put in an extremely defensive role. Considering the state of the Oilers defense and the reason why they traded for him, Larsson’s usage shouldn’t change too much. Last year Larsson only scored 18 points and he’s only had one season where he’s tallied more than 20 points. The increased responsibility will help his totals but Larsson has never given any hint that he can come close to the 40-point mark.
Andrej Sekera- 6 goals, 23 assists, 29 points
Entering the first year of his six-year contract, Sekera had a fine season for the Oilers, tallying six goals and 24 assists. Averaging about 22 minutes a night, Sekera was also an important piece on the powerplay, registering two goals and 12 assists with the man advantage. While he won’t be having 40+ point seasons like when he was in Carolina, Sekera should be good for around 30 points.
Even though Talbot had some long stretches of bad play last year, he still managed to end the season with a respectable .917 save percentage. It’s not amazing but it’s better than average and now with a full season under his belt, Talbot should improve a little. Talbot has shown he has the potential to be a quality starting netminder as in New York, he posted save percentages of .941 and .926 in his first two seasons of his NHL career. While he might not reach those numbers again, he should have another good year in Edmonton.
*Big thanks to Scott Maran from All In Hockey for his Fantasy Hockey Preview of the Oilers going into 2016/17! If you liked what you read, please head over to his site www.allinhockey.com!*
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