Monthly Archives: December 2016

Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors, Trades

Contemplating Jarome Iginla as an Oiler?

Love the ref there… “What should we do? Do we stop it?”

Bob Stauffer brought it up during yesterday’s episode of Oilers Now! and David Staples dedicated a morning article to it. Jarome Iginla potentially being acquired by the Edmonton Oilers.

Stauffer said this yesterday:

Would I have time for Jarome Iginla? Sure. The Avs would have to take some money back, make sure. They’d have to take some short term money back. Why wouldn’t you have time for Jarome Iginla? How do you not respect Jarome Iginla. People say, Ah, he’s done, he’s finished. Never write off players like that. For a short timeframe guys like that can pull it together and they can bring it. If he were to waive (his no-trade), he’s a right wing, he’s a competitive player, he’s not the fastest guy, but he can still shoot the puck. He can one-time the puck…Hard not to like Jarome Iginla. If the opportunity presented itself, I think you’d have to look at it. (source)

Now when Stauffer starts naming names on his radio show, he’s letting you know that the Oilers are looking for a player along the same lines as the one named. So in this case (Iginla), the Oilers are looking for a right-handed shooter who can score. We were hoping that was going to be Jesse Puljujarvi but he hasn’t found his stride yet (nor is he getting the chance to show what he can do with that shot on the Oilers’ PP). And we got rid of Yakupov because he wasn’t pissing a drop for the Oilers (about the same as he’s doing in St.Louis right now).

David Staples said this in his post earlier:

As for whether it’s wise to pick up the 39-year-old Iginla in a deal, well, the price should be low. He’s only got three goals and seven points in 27 games this year. He’s shooting just 5.8 per cent, so his goal total is a bit light, but he’s no Jarome Iginla anymore, if you know what I mean. On a playoff team, I suspect he’ll be a third-liner at best, a Grumpy Old Man type, playing hard, gritty two-way hockey in the pressure games. But I only suspect this as I haven’t watched Iginla closely enough this year to have an informed take on him.

As for the need on the Oilers, Iginla is a right shot and a big, tough winger. Right now Edmonton has Jordan Eberle, Jesse Puljujarvi, Zack Kassian, Anton Slepyshev and Tyler Pitlick on the right side. All these players have so impressed coach Todd McLellan that on the top power play unit he’s now using Mark Letestu, a career fourth-line center, on the left half-wall. So one can see McLellan might well want a better shooter there. I’m not sure Iginla is that player, and I’m more than a wee bit upset that Jesse Puljujarvi hasn’t been given an extended shot in that prime spot, given Puljujarvi’s obvious shooting and passing skills. (source)

Iginla is in a tough spot as Colorado is blowing chunks this year. I definitely can see Iginla being traded but I’m not so sure Edmonton is the kind of team he’d prefer to go to right now. The Oilers aren’t exactly Cup favorites right now. That being said, Iginla still has a fire that burns as bright as it ever has and he still wants his name on the Cup.

“I’d still like to win (closest he got was game 7 in 2004 when he was in Calgary and lost to Tampa Bay). I won’t lose hope in that. Hopefully we can be in the playoffs but I understand how it works at the deadline if we’re not (going well). I’ll cross that bridge when it comes,” – Iginla from an interview w/Jim Matheson 11/23/2016 (source)

Our boy Eric Friesen (@EricJFriesen) even dedicated a whole post to a Yakupov for Iginla trade way back in May! Too bad that didn’t go down eh?

Stauffer mentioned the Avs would have to take some money back, perhaps a player with short-term left on their deal and Staples preferred a cheap return for Iginla. So what about Mark Fayne and a sweetener for Iginla?

From what I’m gathering, it sounds like folks are concerned about that lack of a right-handed defensemen to quarterback the power play and you know what? I’m not concerned about that anymore.

The Oilers have the 6th best power play in the NHL. Yes, you read that correctly. SIXTH!! And that is without the precious rightie QB… So why is it again that they NEED that dman? The PK is also sitting pretty at the seven spot. When’s the last time the Oilers were in the top ten in both categories for special teams? #FireWoodcroft

I mean in Staples article he does talk about the usage of Mark Letestu on the PP and yes, Letestu is a 4th line centre who is getting time with the man advantage. A rare beauty he is. But talk to Reid Wilkins and he’ll tell you all about Letestu’s offensive acumen. IIRC, Wilkins covered Letestu’s Bonneyville Pontiacs (AJHL) whilst Letestu was burning (105pts in 58 games in ’05) up the AJHL. And talk to head coach Todd McLellan, who loves Letestu for his brains on and off the ice.

Veterans have value be it tangible or intangible. Lanny McDonald, Ray Bourque, etc. were all legends who constantly found a way to get it done late in their careers. Now, Letestu isn’t and won’t be remembered as an NHL legend but you get the gist of my point. Iginla, on the otherhand, will be remembered as a legend.

Now, I’m not sure I agree with having Letestu where he is on the power play, especially when you could have Puljujarvi setting up shop there but as we’ve found out, it’s a fickle spot and an intelligent player like Letestu seems to fit the bill whereas a Jordan Eberle just can’t seem to get it going. That’s all fine by me but I do worry about burning Letestu out. Maybe a guy like Iginla could be the one to give Letestu a break?

I’d like the Oilers to trade for Jarome Iginla because I see him in the same light as a Gary Roberts, Mark Recchi, or John Leclair when the Penguins brought those players in for a very young Sidney Crosby. Plus I think that that 5.8% shooting percentage would spike like mad if he was playing next to one of McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, or Draisaitl.

As for the Oilers defense. I think that is an article for another time. In my opinion, it’s still too young.

What do you think about Jarome Iginla being an Oiler? Let us know in the comments below!

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Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, Fancy Stats, G Money, NHL

G-Money on Dealing Nugent-Hopkins

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***Yesterday we posted an article speaking to the disappointing seasons that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jesse Puljujarvi were having and I asked the boys for their thoughts on what we should do with the Nuge. You can read that article HERE.

I did the same on Twitter with this poll and I’m not surprised with the results. It’s not like my followers are wrong 🙂

It’s funny, each time I’ve decided to post an article detailing how unimpressed I am with a specific player, they decide to go ahead in the following game and put up some points… Maybe I should do it more often.

Now, as I mentioned in the article yesterday, G-Money’s (@oilersnerdalert) excerpt was lifted from a longer reply to my question and now I’d like to share G-Money’s full reply with you. Bon Appetit! – BLH***

Q: What’s wrong with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Should the Oilers Trade Him?

A: a. Nothing other than a run of bad luck, and b. God no!

On point a, one of my lenses for looking at a player is “WoodMoney“, the matchup-based quality of competition methodology that @Woodguy55 and I put together. Here’s a look at how much time Nuge is spending facing the various levels of competition, and how he is doing so far this year as compared to the other two main centres (I’ve included both Corsi and DangerFen for the Elite tier, but only CF% vs the others so as not to turn an intimidating table of numbers into an overwhelming one ):

Nuge

% TOI vs Elite – 41%
CF% –  45.9%
DFF%  – 44.9%
% TOI vs Middle – 39%
CF% – 53.9%
% TOI vs Gritensity – 20%
CF% – 59.7%

McDavid 

% TOI vs Elite – 32%
CF% – 53.4%
DFF% – 56.0%
% TOI vs Middle – 46%
CF% – 55.1%
% TOI vs Gritensity – 22%
CF% – 56.8%

Draisaitl 

% TOI vs Elite – 27%
CF% – 49.5%
DFF% – 48.0%
% TOI vs Middle – 49%
CF% – 50.0%
% TOI vs Gritensity – 24%
CF% – 55.0%

Conclusions

On point a:

1. McDavid is stupid good. He destroys everyone.

2. Nuge is being used by TMc as the shutdown power vs power centre this year. Not McDavid. Not Draisaitl. Nuge is the guy spending 41% of his time against the best players in the NHL. That’s creating a ton of clear air for McDavid and Draisaitl. If you’re comparing things like points, you better take that into account. Nuge’s points are being sacrificed to give the other two a chance to score more.

3. When Nuge is up against those great players, it’s true he’s struggling to keep his head above water.  Moreso than in years past.  And he’s not the only one. My suggestion: give him Eberle and Pouliot on an ongoing basis. Let those two (who are both struggling) right their ships. Nuge’s ship will get fixed right along with them.

4. When Nuge is not against those great players, against pretty much every one else, he runs roughshod.  The Nuge is Yuuuuuuuge!

5. So there is nothing wrong with Nuge, except:

On point b:

Nuge is shooting at 5.1% this season. He has a career average of 11.2% prior to this season. So he’s shooting at less than half of his career average.

He’ll find his groove again, guaranteed.

Every player’s sh% varies wildly above and below their long-term average. And it’s more or less random (if a player could control it, they’d always shoot above their average, which would raise their average, which means they’d shoot at random above and below that average, which…)

That’s just how it goes. Sh% controls you, you don’t control sh%.

Now as for trading Nuge … well, my thought process is always that whether it makes sense to trade a player is based entirely on the return.  Anyone is on the block if what you’re getting back is good enough.

But you know what would be stupid though? Trading a player at what would in effect be the maximum possible discount because of one of those sh% lows.

***With G-Money’s balanced analysis and down-to-Earth reasoning, it’s hard, for me at least, to want to move Nuge ASAP because I’m curious as hell as to what the Oilers might look like if they have all three of McDavid, Draisaitl, and RNH humming along on the offense.

What do you think? Let us know in the comments below!***

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Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors

Two Oilers That Need to Get Their Sh*t Together

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Here we have two players of immense talent being squandered. One by the team and the other by the player himself.

Now, the title might be a bit overdramatic but is there any reason that Jesse Puljujarvi should be up with the Oilers right now? And if Ryan Nugent-Hopkins can’t be relied upon to take face-offs for the team OR put up offense, then where does his future lie within the organization?

I asked the guys on the BLH team about RNH and this is what they had to say:

  • Eric Friesen (@EricJFriesen) – Not the right time to trade him at all
  • Johnny Potts (@Kosmicburrito) – His value is WAY too low right now
  • Michael Gerber (@Gerberoo) – RNH from 2011 – 2016 has a pts per 60 scoring rate of 1.62 points at even strength.  That scoring rate is good for 173rd in the NHL over that span among active players.

    Given that you would expect a top line center to be in the top 90 in scoring (there would be 90 top line players in the NHL based on 30 teams) and you would like a second line center to be at least in the top 180 RNH’s production makes him on par with the lower end of second line players. While you can point to usage as contributory to lower production, particularly this year, we are looking at a large sample size.

    In direct comparison his teammates Leon Draisaitl (1.88 p/60) and Connor McDavid (2.69 p/60) are 84th and 2nd respectively are both scoring at a very good rate equal to first line players.

    Thankfully for Nuge, points per 60 is only one measure of the value of a player and he does have redeeming qualities. He has decent skating ability, above average defensive acumen and can make and take a pass.

    Overall, a $6M center providing 2nd line equivalent scoring, 2nd power play minutes and checking depth isn’t ideal.

    Having Nugent-Hopkins right now is a luxury, but the Oilers still have needs in other areas on their team and would be wise to cash in if the price is right. 

  • G-Money (@Oilersnerdalert) – Nuge is being used by TMc as the shutdown power vs power centre this year. Not McDavid. Not Draisaitl. Nuge is the guy spending 41% of his time against the best players in the NHL. That’s creating a ton of clear air for McDavid and Draisaitl. If you’re comparing things like points, you better take that into account. Nuge’spoints are being sacrificed to give the other two a chance to score more.When Nuge is up against those great players, it’s true he’s struggling to keep his head above water.  Moreso than in years past.  And he’s not the only one. My suggestion: give him Eberle and Pouliot on an ongoing basis. Let those two (who are both struggling) right their ships. Nuge’s ship will get fixed right along with them.

    When Nuge is not against those great players, against pretty much every one else, he runs roughshod.  The Nuge is Yuuuuuuuge!

G-Money’s comments are just an excerpt from something he whipped up for us and I’ll be sure to post that on its own for you to read.

  • BLH (@Beerleagueheroe) – RNH… At around the 15 game mark something started to go wrong and his face-off percentages have taken a nose-dive since then. His best day at the dot was Nov.17th versus the Kings, where he was 52% on the draw. His worst day was on Dec.4th versus the Wild, a mind-boggling 16.7% on face-offs… 13 points in 28 games is not cutting the mustard but if we cut that down to the past 5 games we can see that he has a goal and two assists in that time. So there’s a sliver of hope still hanging for us.I mean, it’s not like he’s doing THAT bad. Patrice Bergeron has 8 pts this year… Even so, RNH is the de-facto no.2 centre and yes, the responsibilities within that position include taking on the opposition’s best offensive centre, but it doesn’t mean Nuge has to shut down his own offense at the same time. And if that is going to be what happens, he’d better be next version of Guy Carbonneau in order to be earning that $6M paycheck annually.

    I’ve always felt ever since the Oilers got Hall, then Nuge, then Yakupov; that they’d have to go through the same process that the Quebec Nordiques went through when they drafted Mats Sundin, Eric Lindros, and Owen Nolan. Meaning that before the Oilers will be able to take the next step, those three 1st overalls will need to move on and if Nuge is progressing this badly, then I stand by the idea that the Oilers should see what they can get for him.

I know the Habs are constantly the name being linked with 93 this year with injuries taking out their no.2 and no.3 centres. But I don’t see anything apart from Brendan Gallagher that I reckon would be realistically possible unless you believe that Max Pacioretty is available…

Pacioretty-McDavid-Eberle
Lucic-Draisaitl-Puljujarvi
Pouliot-Caggiula-Slepyshev
Maroon-Letestu-Pitlick/Kassian

Makes you think a bit, doesn’t it? Then again, why would the Habs even consider moving their no.1 LW?

The Islanders would be a target for me, the Ducks’ defense, as well as, the Wild’s defense; would be targets if I were GM.

But let’s not kid ourselves, Nuge’s ticket is staying in Edmonton. He’s an underperforming centre who makes $6M per year.

As for Puljujarvi…

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Tyler Pitlick and Anton Slepyshev are experienced professional hockey players now and Jesse Puljujarvi is not. This is becoming painfully obvious with each passing game where he’s either scratched or lining up in the bottom 6 without an adequate center. Actually, what he reminds me of is that first year that Leon Draisaitl played. Flashes of brilliance mixed in with a shit ton of growing pains. Puljujarvi should be getting time on the second PP unit but for whatever reason, the coach doesn’t see him as a fit and I’d love to know why… Maybe Jim Matheson can ask another question on behalf of the bloggers like he did the morning after the Buffalo game 🙂

Pitlick and Slepyshev deserve to be playing for the Edmonton Oilers on a nightly basis. They bring speed and sandpaper, skill and smarts to the ice when they are out there. One could argue that Anton Slepyshev would be handy on the powerplay with his shot and puck patience and Tyler Pitlick would be a huge add to the penalty kill with his size, speed, and forecheck.

Puljujarvi needs a pick-me-up and sending him to the World Juniors is not an option. At least no more an option than sending McDavid back to Erie. The Grinnin’ Finn should be gone to Bakersfield before any more of his confidence is sapped out of him. Colorado’s Mikko Rantanen did it last year and that choice turned out to be nothing short of brilliant.

I understand why Pulju isn’t going down and that is because the Oilers are actively shopping Benoit Pouliot and Matt Hendricks and need Puljujarvi up to cover on the wing in case they are moved. But I hope the Oilers can do something and fast because we’re now closer to the 50% mark on the year than the beginning mark and teams are starting to catch up to the Oilers in the mire that is what we call the Pacific Division. Calgary are even-steven with us now baby and it’s time to start getting real about roster decisions.

What do you think? Are you ready to move on from Nugent-Hopkins or do you think the Oilers should hold onto him and wait for his ridiculously low shooting percentage (5%) to come back to normal (approx. 10%)? And Puljujarvi? Do you think he’s better off on the Oilers or down in Bakersfield on the Condors?

Let us know in the comments below!

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Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL

McDavid Rips Classless Manning After Oilers Loss in Philly

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Connor McDavid was not a happy camper after the Edmonton Oilers absolutely BLEW two 2-goal leads in a 6-5 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers but that a narrative will be playing second fiddle to the Manning/McDavid quotes that came after the game.

Edmonton journalist Jim Matheson asked McDavid the following question in the post-game scrum:

Words for Manning. You didn’t like the hit from last year or just early in the 1st period?

To which McDavid responded after a letting out a huge breath:

I did all I could defending him last year in the media, everyone wanted to make it a big deal saying he did it on purpose. He (manning) wanted to say some comments today about what went on last year. I thought it was one of the classless things I’ve ever seen on the ice. So he (manning) said some things and our guys responded accordingly. I guess we can put the whole “did he do it on purpose thing” to rest because what he said out there kinda confirmed that. Shows what kind of guy he (manning) is when he doesn’t step up and fight some of our guys.

“Fuck you! You fucking little bitch!” – Connor McDavid to Brandon Manning

What do you think about McDavid’s comments? Personally, I love that he dropped the f-bomb like that and that he opened up this little can of worms in the post-game scrum. Manning is a little bitch and a classless hockey player for doing what he did to McDavid and then not answering the call when it was time to pay the fiddler. We’ll be talking about potty-mouth McDavid for the rest of the week now! lol. #FYYLB (hat tip to Ms.Jackie Dawson for that hash tag!)

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