Monthly Archives: December 2016

Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors, Trades

Deals on the Table?

Hendy's balls got rung vs. Dallas
Hendy’s balls got rung vs. Dallas
Just a quick update, I’ve been thinking, Pouliot and Hendricks are being shopped like mad and it’s my belief that there are some deals on the table for both of them. I can’t see Chiarelli wanting to tinker with this current roster too much right now apart from picking up that elusive right-handed powerplay quarterback. So it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if all Edmonton got back in return for our beloved Matty Hendricks and Benoit Pouliot was draft picks.

Now, here’s the thing. I think that Chia might just load up on draft picks in order to give him some slack with Las Vegas. I reckon that Brandon Davidson will be left unprotected and perhaps Tyler Pitlick will be the one that is protected in his spot. But I also know that the Oilers LOVE Brandon Davidson and really want him to be part of this team. Chia also needs a 2nd rounder and he’s got a glut of RFA dmen in Bakersfield that need tending to.

Minnesota and Anaheim are teams that have been linked closest to the Oilers in recent rumours and oddly enough, both of those teams are in a pickle regarding their expansion draft protection list. And what better year to go shopping for underperforming defensemen? Barrie, Vatanen, and pretty much any of the Islanders defenders are up for grabs.

Eklund has the Oilers eyeing up defender Derrick Pouliot of the Pittsburgh Penguins… It’s hard to imagine a man’s job being taken by Justin Schultz but this seems to be the case… Now I’ll have to do more digging as to why D-Pou hasn’t been able to catch on in Pittsburgh yet but the connection to the Oilers is obvious… Bob Green was the Edmonton Oil Kings’ GM back in his junior days and when Derrick Pouliot and his Portland Winterhawks were going toe-to-toe with the Oil Kings. Talk about a rivalry…

Bob Green was the Edmonton Oil Kings’ GM back in his junior days and when Derrick Pouliot and his Portland Winterhawks were going toe-to-toe with the Oil Kings. Talk about a rivalry… WOWZAS!!! Those playoff series were epic. Ahhh I yearn for the days of Lazar, Brossoit, and (young) Griffin Reinhart.

I’m a little hesitant with Bob Green’s trade-for-this-great-WHL-defenseman history as it hasn’t really panned out for Griffin Reinhart yet but his draft history has been pretty tight.

What do you think about these rumours? Let us know in the comments below! Oh and pick up this sweet Patrik Laine 16-Bit Superstars tee!

The Finnish Crash! Pick up one of his tees!!
Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL

I Didn’t Want to Write This But…

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As we sit here on the morning of Wednesday, December the 7th and digest the fact that the Edmonton Oilers of the National Hockey League are sitting in 1st place of the Pacific Division, a portion of the fan base still feels the need to bitch and whine and moan about one player. The funny thing is, now that some light has been shed on that player by some pretty smart hockey minds leading to a prominent hockey voice within the oilogosphere to head down the road of conspiracy theories in an attempt to justify his failed witch hunt upon one, Kris Russell.

Now, before I get into this elongated diatribe, Russell has been hot garbage the last few games when paired up with Adam Larsson and that has done nothing but stoke the fires over at Camp Poopy Pants but as we know, hockey has its peaks and its valleys.

It’s my understanding that all of this really got going when Jim Matheson wrote about the Oilers possibly having an offer on the table for Kris Russell in the 3-4 year range (IIRC), and somebody took offense to this and wrote some pieces over at Oilers Nation regarding Russell the Love Muscle. Part 1 of those blogs included a shit ton of stats and numbers that painted the Oilers new #4 in a non-flattering light. You cannot argue with those numbers because they are, after all, factual, but it’s not fair to the target audience of the composition if the writer can’t show the other side of the coin.

What followed was a piece most recently by Mark Spector, and I believe this was the straw that broke the camel’s back for some. Now they aren’t happy with Chiarelli  because… Reasons.

https://twitter.com/SportsnetSpec/status/806361421823021056

I am not advocating that the Oilers re-sign Kris Russell for anything more than 1 year if they do indeed decide to bring him back. I’m of the belief that there will be better players available and by re-signing him, that puts a huge dent in the team’s ability to pick up that right-handed powerplay quarterback to which this season is a perfect season to be buying low. Check out the numbers on Tyson Barrie and Sami Vatanen, or even Travis Hamonic and try to disagree with me.

We move on to the dirty stuff now… If you want to skip this part, you can scroll down a bit and there are some interesting “facts” about Kris Russell that are actually in the positive.  Oh, there’s some BOLD language in this post. So you’ve been forewarned. And it’s kinda long. Good Luck! May the Russell be with you!

IS PETER CHIARELLI BEING TAKEN FOR A RIDE?

“Black Box Analytics” Get used to that term because that’s where amateur bloggers and statistics aficionados will be taking you. Taken from Mr.Henderson’s blog over at the highly-respected hockey trade rumors site, Hockeybuzz, we are gifted this definition of black box analytics:

Some firm has generated these numbers and presenting them with (we assume) some analysis to go along with it. We do not know their process. We do not have access to the numbers. We cannot test the numbers because they are hidden from us. We do not know what kind of analysis is being done, by whom, and for what profit.

Wait! That’s not a definition! And how noble of Mr.Henderson to be so protective of the Oilers’ financial well-being. God forbid a company make a profit! Off of the Oilers no less!!

A black box is any device whose workings are not understood by or accessible to its user. (source)

All I read from Henderson’s quote is a severe amount of insecurity. “We do not know their process. We do not have access to the numbers. We cannot test the numbers because they are hidden from us. We do not know what kind of analysis is being done. by whom, and for what profit.”

I don’t know why he keeps saying “we” when it should be “I” and boo f*cking hoo. You don’t know something. Welcome to the club. The fact of the matter is that this one blogger is losing his shit (and his credibility) because he’s gone to ridiculous lengths to come to a very public and questionable conclusion that is slightly flawed but he cannot gain access to the information that may justify the outcome of his research or give him insight into where he IS wrong (which at this point, he’s so convinced that he isn’t in the wrong that he’s talking about black box analytics). It’s ignorant and arrogant.

SERIOUS PSA

So kids, in this case, when there’s SOOOOOO much you cannot do or do not know; you go and talk to the people with the information you want (or need in this case) OR you start to do your own analysis. YOU go and track the player, YOU write down your findings, YOU share your new research results with the online community and open them up for critique because you want that. You want to know where the faults lie within your research so that you can find the true answer.

WHAT WE DON’T DO

Don’t be a little bitch and go down conspiracy theory road because you’re too encumbered by “life” and for sure don’t try to sell yourself to the public that you’re some sort of authority or influencer on the topic if you’re not willing to go the extra mile! And especially, this one is key, don’t post your conspiracy theory on a well-known hockey rumors website. If you’re so convinced, put it up on a respectable platform like Oilers Nation 🙂

It all stinks of desperation and I’m surprised it has come this far.

COULD HENDERSON BE RIGHT?

OF COURSE, there’s a possibility that everything Mr.Henderson is claiming is true but that is no more a possibility than Kris Russell being the worst dman in the history of the NHL. Why? Because it is so bloody apparent that Henderson has an agenda and, at least to me, this is his way of expressing his displeasure towards Peter Chiarelli for trading his favorite hockey player, Taylor Hall.

I guess that’s one route to take but good luck. You’re going to need it.

WHAT DOES KRIS RUSSELL DO RIGHT?

Now, I’m sure “black box analysis” will be a new buzzword going forth because the people using it and believing in it will refuse to admit their ignorance and blissfully look the other way when they are shown up. We’ve got people like former Edmonton Oiler Brad Werenka, who works for a hockey analytics company called True Performance Hockey, who said this past week on Inside Sports with Reid Wilkins that Kris Russell was akin to that of Charlie Huddy or Randy Gregg back in the Oilers’ hay day. These defensemen have value.

From Wilkins’ show:

Wilkins: Can I ask you, is there a player like that in today’s game that’s a bit of an analytics star in today’s game like that?

Werenka: Well, there’s several defenseman, Kris Russell is one of those guys who scores very well because he does stuff that denies opportunities and takes chances away and one of those is obviously blocked shots. 

So even within the Twittersphere there are comments that support Kris Russell.

I could be wrong but having a dman who ranks high in 5×5 SV% should be good, no? We’d like our goalie to be saving the puck more often than not when Russell is on the ice, right? I don’t claim to be a stats guy and I could be reading Willis’ tweet all wrong though. I’ll leave it to you to let me know.

https://twitter.com/MikeKellyNHL/status/805875198985637888

Well this certainly HAS to be of some importance. The Oilers are 11th in the NHL in PK% (at one time they were 2nd). Do you think Kris Russell has had an impact on the Oilers PK?

https://twitter.com/MikeKellyNHL/status/805874972484837376

More than Connor McDavid? That’s insane but hey, why give that guy the puck if he’s so shitty, right?

https://twitter.com/hockeyanalysis/status/748872150036123648

https://twitter.com/hockeyanalysis/status/748872904763379713

Wanna know what that stat is this season @5×5, 200 min TOI? 12.2. Kris Russell relative to his teammates has a 12.2 goals for %. That is good for 28th in the NHL. That is a first pairing defenseman. It’s better than Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson, Ryan Suter, M.E. Vlasic, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Brent Burns, Alex Pietrangelo, Victor Hedman, Duncan Keith, etc… So keep telling me how bad Kris Russell is. (source)

https://twitter.com/hockeyanalysis/status/805627781191180289

Yes, Mr. Henderson. When will it end?

BLH, DON’T YOU HAVE YOUR OWN QUESTIONS ABOUT RUSSELL?

I do have my own questions as to why Kris Russell has become such a point of debate amongst hockey fans, the first one included in the tweet below and the second following it.

https://twitter.com/TravisDakin/status/805202319537160192

So a player’s performance has nothing to do with the team’s record? If that’s the case, and I’m sure to be misunderstanding something, take McDavid out of the lineup and tell me that correlation doesn’t equal causation. Then enjoy your tasty bowl of frosted dicks.

And if Russell’s performances aren’t equal or at least offer a contribution to the Oilers results, what the fuck are we even talking about then? He’s the worst player by certain stats on this team, great. You’ve done the world an unthankable (I don’t think that’s a word) service by pointing our Russell’s flaws…

This team is first in its division and has been consistently in the top half of the Western Conference this season to date. IF you think you’re so smart, show me where Kris Russell is preventing the Oilers from winning better or more. Show me which player on the Oilers roster is better suited for the role that Kris Russell is filling.

We should know by now that teams take time to get on top. LA, Chicago, Pittsburgh, St.Louis, Washington, Anaheim, San Jose, Boston, Montreal, etc. They were all shit at one point or another and then they turned it around. Was it immediate? No. Was it gradual? Yes! Did their GMs make some questionable moves and miss out on some high-end draft picks, fuck ya they did!

I don’t even really know why these posts by Matt have got me all worked up but they have. I have no problem with wanting the Oilers to be better and I definitely don’t have a problem with questioning “the man” but I do not believe for one second that Chiarelli is doing a bad job. And the NHL standings tell me that the stamp that he has put on this team has been a positive one.

I am on #TeamChiarelli because he’s done just *that* much better than MacTavish, Tambellini, and Lowe…

Rant over. Weight off of chest. Have a good evening/morning/afternoon!

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Brennen York, Prospects

Top 20 Under 20: Sans North America

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I have to preface this list by letting you know I have only seen two of these players live, with a good chunk of viewings done during tournaments that are streamed or on TV (World Juniors, Ivan Hlinka, etc.) This list is made up of players born before 1996-12-7. The rankings are based on a combination of statistical success this year in relation to league, as well as the potential success they may have at the NHL level given team circumstance. It isn’t a perfect measuring stick as I haven’t “scouted” many of these players, so take it for what it is.

1. Rasmus Dahlin – LD – 2000-04-13 (16) – Frolunda HC (SHL) – 6’1 – 165 lbs

Up to this point, Rasmus Dahlin has established himself as a blue chip prospect in every sense of the term. After posting 16 points in 15 games in the SuperElit league, the 16 year old is now logging SHL minutes for Frolunda, and has two points on the year. Dahlin is a smooth skating puck transporter, and possesses the ability to be a dominant set up man on the powerplay. Dahlin has the innate ability to rifle passes through seams with precision, and will likely be a 30-40 assist guy in the NHL. The 2018 draft class is chock full of elite defenders, but Dahlin has clearly established himself as the number one guy.

Dahlin will attend Sweden’s World Junior selection camp.

2. Timothy Liljegren – RD – 1999-04-30 (17) – Rogle BK (SHL) – 6’0 – 198 lbs

After a rough start to the year due to mono, Timothy Liljegren is back on track and showing off why he is considered a top three prospect in this years draft. The right handed blue liner boasts a highly intelligent game with strong puck moving capabilities, as well as a lethal shot from a distance. Liljegren has excellent vision in all three zones, and much like Dahlin, has the ability to to make incredible passing plays with very little room. Liljegren is a strong technical skater, and currently projects to be a number two defenceman at the NHL level.

3. Ilya Samsonov – G – 1997-02-22 (19) – Metallburg Magnitogorsk (KHL) – 6’3 – 205 lbs

There are few goalies who have been able to post the kind of numbers that Ilya Samsonov, not only this year, but over the course of his entire hockey career. Samsonov is dominant, plain and simple. During his rookie campaign in the KHL, Samsonov managed a .925 save percentage, and has followed that up with a stellar .934 through 18 games this season. Samsonov is in an interesting position given the strength of the goaltenders in Washington, meaning he may not become a full time NHL starter for another couple years.

4. Klim Kostin – RW – 1999-05-05 (17) – HK MVD Balashikha (MHL) – 6’3 – 196 lbs

Statistics should not define Klim Kostin. The 6’3 Russian forward was held pointless through a combined 14 games in the KHL and MHL, ultimately leading to his demotion to the MHL. Kostin is an exciting player to watch and brings something to the ice every shift. Though he lacks explosive qualities, he has a strong toolset that features quick hands, good offensive zone vision, and a strong ability to protect the puck in the cycle. Kostin is a fiery guy, meaning discipline will have to improve as he’s shown he can get thrown off his game with chippy play. At the NHL level Kostin looks like he will be a top six winger, though offensive production may not reach over 60 points until his prime.

5. Kirill Kaprizov – LW/RW – 1997-04-26 (19) – Salavat Yulaev Ufa (KHL) – 5’10 – 192 lbs

Not many players have surprised in the stats department like Minnesota Wild 5th rounder Kirill Kaprizov. The 19 year old winger has posted 28 points (14 goals) through 36 games in the KHL this season. Kaprizov’s high ranking stems not only from his ability to produce in one of the best leagues in the world, but the fact that the Wild are hungry for goal scoring in the top six, and will likely give Kaprizov an extended look there if he comes to North America for the 2018-19 season as a 21 year old.

6. Elias Pettersson – C/LW – 1998-11-12 (18) – Timra Ik (Allsvenskan) – 6’2 – 161 lbs

As an 18 year old, Elias Pettersson has managed to post over a point per game through 24 regular season games in Allsvenskan. Pettersson is one of the most creative players poised to go in the top ten of this years NHL draft, and will likely be given a chance to show off his creativity at this years World Juniors. Pettersson is a quick player who skates well, and relies on his elite level puck skills to be a dangerous offensive zone player. Pettersson likely won’t be an NHL regular any time soon, but with added development time in the SHL, he could very well become a second line NHL center.

7. Igor Shestyorkin – G – 1995-12-30 (20) – SKA St. Petersburg (KHL) – 6’1 -190 lbs

29 games. 1.53 GAA. .943 save percentage. What else needs to be said? The Rangers did extremely well with their fourth rounder and now have a future replacement for Henrik Lundqvist.

8. Oskar Lindblom – LW/RW – 1996-08-15 (20) – Brynas IF (SHL) – 6’2 – 196 lbs

With his contract in the SHL coming to an end following the 2016-17 season, Lindblom may be a major factor in the Flyers top six next season. Lindblom is a skilled forward with excellent offensive zone instincts, and that’s reflected in his point per game pace he’s currently at. Lindblom is an offensive catalyst who’s shooting ability is on par with his passing abilities. Look for Lindblom to put up 40 in his rookie season.

9. Mikko Kokkonen – LD – 2001-01-18 – Jukurit U20 (Jr. A SM-liiga) – 5’11 – 190 lbs

Anytime a 15 year old is playing in the top league in their respective country, they’re going to get a lot of attention. Kokkonen represented Finland at this years U17 tournament where he didn’t record a point, but played a steady, well rounded game. Through 15 games in Jr. A SM-liiga, Kokkonen has put up a total of four goals and four assists.

10. Kristian Vesalainen – C/LW – 1999-06-01 (17) – HPK (Liiga) – 6’3 – 203 lbs

Kristian Vesalainen is a highly intriguing player as he brings a combination of size, speed, and puck skills that you don’t find very often. His statistical totals throughout the first 24 games (16 SHL, 8 Liiga), have not been great, as he has been unable to produce after being loaned to Liiga, however he did manage to post five points in the SHL. The big bodied Fin will likely receive a lot of attention following the World Juniors, so watch for his name to rise in draft rankings.

11. Axel Holmstrom – C – 1996-06-29 (20) – Skelleftea AIK (SHL) – 6’1 – 198 lbs

Detroit has seen better days in terms of their on ice product, however their ability to draft high end prospects late in the draft remains near the top of the league. Axel Holmstrom, who went 196th overall, has done nothing but produce for the past four years, tallying a career total 13 points in 14 World Junior games, as well as 44 points in 98 SHL games. Holmstrom has yet to play a game this season as he is out with injury. In terms of his NHL potential, given his skating ability and puck skills, he looks like a fit in a top 9 role, and if Detroit does head down re-tool lane and he ends up with more ice time, he could be a top six guy when its all said and done.

12. Lias Andersson – LW – 1998-10-13 (18) – HV71 (SHL) – 5’11 – 198 lbs

There’s a lot to like about Lias Andersson, one of which is his ability to shoot from a distance. He sees the ice well and is a dangerous player when given room. One question that remains is whether or not he plays a game that will translate to the NHL. He’s a smaller player who likes to use his feet to weave in and out of Ozone traffic, which leads me to question what he can do on small ice. Luckily for me, that question will likely be answered when Andersson represents Sweden at the upcoming World Juniors.

13. German Rubtsov – C – 1998-06-27 (18) – Vityaz Podolsk (KHL) – 6’0 – 190 lbs

German Rubtsov doesn’t play the stereotypical Russian style of hockey in the sense that he’s not a pure playmaker and doesn’t have a lethal Ovechkin/Tarasenko/Kuznetsov. Rubtsov’s strengths come in his commitment to playing a sound defensive game in all three zones, as well as supporting the puck which allows for easier transitions out of the defensive zone. That being said, Rubtsov is an extremely talented skater with separation speed, and a strong set of hands. I’d expect Rubtsov to be a good third line center at the NHL level, similar to Nick Bonino in that he will be able to play a top six role.

14. Aleksi Saarela – C – 1997-01-07 (19) – Lukko (Liiga) – 5’11 – 198 lbs

Aleksi Saarela, a third round pick by the New York Rangers, was poised to dominate the WJC this year, after posting a point per game on last years championship squad, however we won’t be seeing him as he turned down the invite. Why? Not too sure. He’s been unable to produce at the same rate as last season with Assat, and his current team, Lukko, sits second last in the league which makes the decision to not join the Finnish WJ team even stranger. Saarela plays an intelligent game, and may come across as lazy to some, however I believe him to be somewhat cerebral in his approach, and very economical in his Ozone movement. At the NHL level, Saarela is likely a third liner with the ability to post between 30-40 points.

15. Marcus Westfalt – C/LW – 2000-03-12 (16) – Brynas IF J20 (SuperElit) – 6’3 – 187 lbs

Through 20 games in J18 Elit, Marcus Westfalt posted an impressive 10 goals and 22 assists, which earned him a call up to SuperElit. The 6’3, 187 pound forward. Little is known about the Swedish forward other than his ability to produce not only over in Sweden, but internationally as he also racked up three points in six games at this years U17 tournament.

16. Gabriel Carlsson – LD – 1997-01-02 (19) – Linkoping HC (SHL) – 6’4 – 183 lbs

Gabriel Carlsson is an assertive two way defender with strong defensive zone instincts. He’s not a guy who’s going to post big numbers as his value comes in his shutdown capabilities, however given his efficiency on the breakout he could be a guy who picks up a decent amount of secondary assists when he makes his way to Columbus. Carlsson’s contract comes to an end following the 2017/18 season, and he will represent Sweden at this years World Juniors.

17. Filip Gustavsson – G – 1998-06-07 (18) – Luela HF (SHL) – 6’2 – 185 lbs

Draft Swedish goalies. It’s the key. Gustavsson is already an SHL regular, and currently sits with a .931 save percentage through 7 games. During his time with the J20 team, Gustavsson posted a .935 save percentage before earning the call up. I believe he’s one of the highest potential goalies we’ve seen come from Sweden in a while, however with the strength of goaltending in Pittsburgh, there’s no sense in him making his way over any time soon. Gustavsson may be a guy teams look at near the deadline when offloading veterans.

18. Adam Bokvist – RD – 2000-08-15 (16) – Brynas IF J20 (SHL) – 5’10 – 170 lbs

Adam Bokvist, a right handed defenceman currently playing in the SuperElit league, is proving he can produce at a variety of levels. Bokvist posted 14 points in 8 games during his time in J18 Elit this year, and followed that up with two assists in two games in the SuperElit league. Bokvist really grabbed scouts attention during his time at the U17 tournament where he managed four goals. Bokvist, like many high end Swedish defenceman, excels in the offensive zone, often directing the play from the blue line. It won’t be long before he earns an SHL promotion.

19. Noah Rod – C/RW – 1996-06-07 (20) – Geneve-Servette HC (NLA) – 6’0 – 192 lbs
Noah Rod has been a dominant international player, plain and simple. The Swiss forward has a combined 18 points in 17 games with both the U20 and U18 teams, however his value stretches far beyond that with his speed and physical play adding a unique element to whichever team he’s on. Rod plays a North American style of game, and really excels down low in the cycle and funneling pucks to the net. Given that he’s signed in the NLA until the 21/22 season, he may be a player the Sharks will have to wait for, however he should be high on their priority list as he has the ability to make an impact on their bottom six in the very near future.

20. Carl Grundstrom – LW/RW – 1997-12-01 (19) – Frolunda HC (SHL) – 6’0 – 194 lbs

With 13 points in 25 SHL games, Grundstrom is only three points off last years total. The Swedish center has been excellent this year, and has taken a big step offensively, something I was unsure he’d be able to do as he appeared to be more of a complimentary player. That is not the case, and he’s proving that. Grundstrom will play for Sweden at the World Juniors, and will likely play a top six role, something all Leafs fans are hoping he can one day do in Toronto.

HM:

Linus Soderstrom (G) – New York Islanders
Yegor Korshkov (C/RW) – Toronto Maple Leafs
Lukas Wernblom (C/LW) – Eligible 2018
Jonathan Dahlen (C/LW) – Ottawa Senators
Pavel Kraskovsky (C/RW) – Winnipeg Jets

Did I leave anyone off the list that you think should have been there? Let me know!

Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors, Trades

Oilers’ Grizzled Vet Matt Hendricks on the Block According to Friedman

On tonight’s episode of Hockey Night in Canada’s Headliners, Elliotte Friedman noted that the Oilers’ Matt Hendricks could be on the trade block. Friedman said that perhaps the Minnesota Wild could be a possible destination. Hendricks is from Blaine, Minnesota, so it makes a bit of sense there.

Matt Hendricks has been a healthy scratch more times than not since coming back from injury and his performances when he has been playing have been less than stellar. Not helping Hendricks’ situation is the fact that younger players like Tyler Pitlick and Anton Slepyshev have really stepped up their game.

Personally, I think that veterans like Matt Hendricks are invaluable when it comes to playoff races and actual playoff games. Also, I believe that he is the type of player that keeps a dressing room sane.

What do you think? Is it time for the Oilers to move on from Matt Hendricks or should they be trying to keep him in case of a playoff drive? Let us know in the comments below.

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Edmonton Oilers, Fancy Stats, Michael Sifeldeen, NHL

The Case *For* Kris Russell

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There has been a lot of noise made in the last couple days in the Oilogosphere about Kris Russell and how he’s literally the worst hockey player to ever hockey. Many of the advanced stats purveyors just have a field day when it comes to Russell and his (real or perceived) deficiencies, mostly centering around his basement-dweller numbers in categories like Corsi- and Fenwick-For. They really, truly fail to understand what professional hockey general managers see in the guy. The fact that his on-ice shooting percentage and save percentage is historically through-the-roof and currently 2nd amongst Oilers d-men (along with his PDO, too), are often brushed aside as “luck” or “flukey.”

Boy oh boy, isn’t there a word for selectively applying the statistics that help reinforce your preconceived notions and support your argument, while simultaneously ignoring or underplaying the ones that work against you?

From what I can tell, from watching almost every one of the Oilers’ 25 games so far this season, Kris Russell is an enigma that defies conventional stat-tracking. Watching him, seeing his play, I just cannot understand how this guy keeps getting such shade thrown on him by the pundits. He’s like the hockey player equivalent of that kid in your high school class who shows up looking sloppy and unkempt and gets sneered about by his teachers who don’t expect anything from him, but keeps getting good marks on his tests and constantly outperforms his perceived shortcomings. The things that Russell does well aren’t very easy to measure in Corsi derivatives, and the things he isn’t strong at are hyper-inflated by those very same metrics.

But the sheer arrogance of some of these writers who, I fear, legitimately feel their armchair analysis is superior to that of a Stanley Cup winning general manager and the teams and teams of people he surrounds himself with is astounding. In fact, Chiarelli himself noted when questioned about his initial pickup of Russell that they knew all about the reviews and numbers on him. And according to the internal, unconventional statistics the Oilers have access to (read: non-Corsi-derivative), Russell is currently sitting 2nd in the NHL amongst all defenders in clean offensive and neutral zone entries. And in the pressure system the Oilers employ, this type of skillset is immeasurably valuable.

You know how you can see how valuable it is? By watching Russell play hockey for the Edmonton Oilers. By seeing how he gels with Sekera, and how relatively smoothly and quickly he’s picked up playing on his off-side. (A feat many of the naysayers are unwilling to acknowledge the difficulty of.) Perhaps listening to Sekera himself –who praised Russell from Day 1 saying how “easy” he makes his life — would be another good place to start. Maybe acknowledging the fact that, while yes, an NHL-high number of blocked shots might indicate a propensity for having a history of being stuck in the defensive zone too long, it’s also an indicator of a warrior mentality – someone who is routinely willing to sacrifice his body as a last-ditch effort to stop a scoring opportunity and according to Woodguy, blocked shots cut down on dangerous fenwick. It’s also just simply a fact that shots against are going to happen, and when they do, it sure must be nice for the rest of the Oilers knowing they have a guy who is absolutely going to jump in front of them and take the punishment they entail. It must be nice finally having a couple veteran defenders on our second pairing with very recent playoff experience who can chew up minutes and help guide the next generation in their development. It must be nice having a quick-skating D-man who stays poised in PK situations and never really looks flustered or panicked.

Listen, I was as anti-Russell as the next guy when we first signed him. I saw all the stats and heard all the doomsday predictions that came along with them. And I’m a big fan of fancystats! I use them poorly and with an air of superiority all the time! But here are the objective, observable facts: we’re an above-.500 hockey team that is pretty seriously in the playoff conversation at the quarter-mark of the season, which has been so obviously out of the question by this time during the Decade of Darkness(TM), it’s not something we should understate the importance of. If you don’t think Russell can be said to be partially responsible for that, you haven’t been paying attention. You haven’t been watching him play. If we sign him for another 3 or 4 years at some value <$4.5M/per, I take that deal every day, and I think Peter Chiarelli does, too. And he’s smarter than us and gets paid far more handsomely than us to make that call.

Come fight me on Twitter @sife

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