Tag Archives: Jim Matheson

Is it Klefbom or RNH? Who is Senators GM Pierre Dorion Scouting As He Watches the Oilers?

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Just one minor rant before getting into this weeks 31 Thoughts podcast and what Jeff Marek and Elliotte Friedman were saying about the Oilers.

All throughout the Taylor Hall era of the Oilers (or as others call it, the Decade of Darkness), I watched those teams get pushed around and nothing was done about it even though the team had tough guys/enforcers on the roster and you might say I’m old-fashioned or a flat-earther because I believe in physical retribution but the NHL’s star attraction was the target of cheap shots from the Calgary Flames and the San Jose Sharks most recently.

**Bloggers and fans will scoff at what I’m going to say next but journalists who cover sports teams and ex-players won’t. They know exactly what I’m talking about.

Now we’ve learned over time that there was a split in the dressing room back then and the players weren’t willing to stick up for each other because of the cliques that were formed in that room. Is that what is going on now?**

What are Zack Kassian, Milan Lucic, Darnell Nurse, and JJ Khaira doing?

I’ll give credit to Khaira and Nurse because at least they gone ahead and dropped the gloves in the last 10 days but what kind of excuses do Kassian and Lucic have?

My whole thing with these kinds of players is that they have something to offer when they’re not scoring goals, their braveness and willingness to do the things that others are not. I mean if this is the way the NHL is going, then all of those players who say they’ll battle for their teammates and don’t, they can hit the road. I’d rather the Oilers sign a bunch of rat finks like Burrows or Clutterbuck if that’s the case. Hell, bring back Raffi Torres!

I don’t see anybody hitting out there anymore or if they do it’s a glance or a coasting into a player as if they’re sorry for touching the guy. What happened to these players? Are they playing through something? If so, why haven’t they had it repaired if they’ve been playing through it for the entire season?

If Lucic and Kassian can’t play the game that made them successful in Edmonton, then they should be moved out for players who can. Michael Haley does nothing but hit and fight and he’s not hurting the Florida Panthers in their fight for a playoff spot. He’s cheap too.

Listen, all I want is some fire and emotion during the games and this isn’t an Oilers-centric problem I don’t believe. I think it’s league-wide and that’s a shame because if this is the direction the NHL is going, I’ll probably stop watching it at some point and convert to junior games or minor league games where things are a bit more unpredictable.

31 THOUGHTS PODCAST: RNH OR KLEFBOM?

https://twitter.com/NHLbyMatty/status/974074726141210624

This is going to be a story until the draft, no doubt about it. That being said, Oilers fans shouldn’t be getting their hopes up because the Senators were talking to both the Flames and the Sharks at the deadline regarding Mike Hoffman and Bobby Ryan. I think we can toss Vegas into that mix too.

On this week’s 31 Thoughts podcast, Jeff Marek and Elliotte Friedman had some interesting comments regarding RNH and Klefbom…

Marek: Who is most likely to go out of Edmonton, Klefbom or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?

Friedman: It’s a tough one because both players play valuable positions. One’s a center and one’s a D, what is everyone looking for? Center and D.

I think they both have an attractiveness about them.

The only reason I’d say Klefbom more likely is that I think if you look at them they’ve got Nurse, they’ve got Sekera, they’ve got Larsson, they’ve got Russell signed. I think they feel they’ve probably got enough D that they can get by.

Marek: It’s a D heavy draft, they’ll take a D most likely.

Friedman: If they can get Draisaitl and McDavid comfortable playing apart, you probably don’t have the luxury of keeping Nugent-Hopkins’ cap number but if you really want to play them together, you probably need Nugent-Hopkins.

Like, I think they have to convince those two guys (McDavid/Draisaitl) to play apart. I really do. You look at Pittsburgh, the team we watched in Toronto on the weekend, why do they win Stanley Cups? Because they’ve got Crosby on one line, Malkin on one line, and Kessel on another line with Brassard.

I think ultimately those two guys (97/29) are going to have to play apart and for that reason, Nugent-Hopkins might not be a luxury you can afford under the cap?

So what I’m gathering from that is if the Oilers keep Todd Mclellan, there’s a possibility that he finds himself back up on that top line with Connor McDavid more often than not. Something Ryan Rishaug has spoken to this week on the Jason Gregor show. And in turn that’ll mean Klefbom goes because the Oilers will need RNH to man the 2nd line centre position.

But if the Oilers decide to go with a different coach I believe that will spell the end of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ spell with the Oilers because Peter Chiarelli believes having RNH on the 3rd line making $6M a year isn’t fiscally smart.

And another thing we have to take into consideration is the draft?

Right now the Oilers are sitting in 7th spot and their chances at the 1st overall pick are 6.7%. They’re chances at a top 3 selection are 20.9%. (according to tankathon.com)

So if they win the lottery and move up to no.1, they’ll take Dahlin and that means goodbye Oscar. If they move up into the top 3 but not no.1, that means they’ll be taking a winger, goodbye RNH. If they stay where they are at no.7, I would venture to guess they trade the pick outright in a deal for a winger or a dman OR they trade down because the middle of the pack in this year’s draft doesn’t offer much separation in terms of talent.

Lastly, they could sit on the roster and do nothing because RNH and Klefbom are still great young players and they’re signed long-term. They’ll both be healthy going into next year and really, all the Oilers need to do is tinker a bit on the wing and back end.

Thoughts? Let us know in the comments below!

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The Latest Oilers Trade Rumblings and Compliance Buyouts Are Coming According to John Shannon

First off I want to say that I’m very proud of the Women’s Canadian Hockey team. That was such a good hockey game and they worked their asses off. That move the American shooter made to win it was outstanding though. Seriously…

A silver medal is nothing to scoff at no matter how much Lias Andersson tries to convince you it is. And those ladies join another elite hockey team to lose a very important hockey game at the Olympics in Asia via the shootout…

99 on the bench after losing to the Czechs in ’98 at Nagano, Japan.

On yesterday’s Oilers Now, Bob Stauffer asked John Shannon a very interesting question,

Do you think that it’s an automatic that there are two non-compliance options options (going to be in the new CBA), like there have been in past CBAs?

John Shannon’s reply was, “Guaranteed!”

I’m a little confused at this point as to which kind of compliance buyouts Stauffer and Shannon are talking about. I reckon Stauffer is talking about compliance buy outs NOT non-compliance ones though.

But just to relieve any confusion, let’s go over their definitions:

  • Non-Compliance Buyout – Consider this the “regular” buyout like the one Chiarelli used on Pouliot last summer. NHL teams can choose to buy out and terminate any player’s standard player contract. It isn’t quite as easy as just cutting a player though, because any bought-out player is still due a portion of the money owed to him; either one-third or two-thirds of his remaining salary (depending on the terms of the original deal) to be paid out over twice the remaining years of the terminated contract.
  • Compliance Buyout – This is the “Get Out of Jail Free” buyout. Basically, teams can buy out any contract on their roster and it won’t count against their cap but it has to be a contract signed.

Now with those compliance (or amnesty) buyouts, in the past, there’s been a 2-week window right after the Stanley Cup final’s conclusion where the teams could do their business if you will. Also, the last time compliance buyouts were eligible to be utilized, only players who’d signed contracts on or before Sept.12 of 2012 were given the O.K. to be bought out and this was for the 2013 and 2014 seasons…

2021/22 is when the current CBA expires and conversely, the new Seattle franchise is expected to join the league the season previous. I don’t think that it would be in the league’s best interest to expand, have the new team play a year and then have a lockout. Both the NHL (Sept.1) or the NHLPA (Sept.19) can opt out next summer (2019/20) but that’s unlikely according to Shannon.

I know when I write on these kinds of things I feel like I’ve glossed something over, so please feel free to let me know if I’ve gotten something wrong in my interpretation either in the comments below or on Twitter (@beerleagueheroe). Thx!

HOW MIGHT THIS AFFECT THE OILERS?

If I’m right in interpreting the verbiage from past compliance buyout windows, it might allow them to buy out Milan Lucic IF he’s still with the club. I was thinking possibly Sekera and/or Russell but their contracts will have expired by the time a window opens and there’s no guarantee they’d be on the club at that point either. I’m thinking one of them will be in Seattle and the other playing in a different city.

  • Milan Lucic is signed for $6M/yr until 2022/23

But there’s the fact that Lucic’s deal is so laden with signing bonuses, would it even be worth it to the team to buy out the last year of his deal?

So I guess the only players who might be considered in the compliance buyout category at this point in time are Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid… Unlikely targets but you never know… Maybe the Oilers go on to sign John Carlson to a mega-deal this summer and he shits the bed for them… Or maybe they trade for Erik Karlsson and he slows right the F down in those later years and becomes a liability. I guess at that point, a compliance buyout might be an option for the Oilers.

The other thing Edmonton could do is acquire heavy contracts in exchange for tasty draft picks or prospects and then buy them out in the windows. Similar to what the Vegas or Arizona have done in the past.

I mean other teams could simply do that themselves but what if there’s a team that is desperate to get a contract off of the books, in theory, my notion above would be applicable, no? I guess the follow up to that would be, how much cap room will the Oilers have by then and if they have enough cap room to make such a move, why is that?

What do you think? Have I got it all wrong here?

LATEST ON THE OILERS TRADE FRONT

Erik Karlsson…

No, I don’t believe that the Oilers and Sens are talking Karlsson and Bobby Ryan because Eklund tweeted that out. But I do believe it’s worth a discussion IF the Sens would take Lucic back.

I love Lucic, I really do, and I want him to succeed but it’s really hard to watch him this year. He tries to engage in the games but nobody will fight him, nobody will even hit him. So the things that got him fired up in the past aren’t available anymore and he’s struggling to get out of this slump. He’s squeezing his stick way to tightly, he’s doing fly bys at the net when he should be stopping.

He looks tired.

I’d feel bad for him if he got dealt this early into his deal but it would be what it would be if it happened. I’d accept it and move on. I’d much rather him see success as part of the Oilers than another team obviously.

I don’t want to get into the details of a proper proposal but I do want to offer an idea to you…

What if the Oilers went ahead and traded for Karlsson and then traded him at the deadline next year? What kind of haul do you think the Oilers could get IF Doughty and OEL were on the market too? Not only that but what if the Oilers also won the lottery and drafted Dahlin?

Bob Stauffer also said yesterday that the Maple Leafs have watched the Oilers five of the last 7 games… They’re not looking at Maroon and I can only assume they’re not looking at Cammalleri…. Is there a Josh Leivo/Mark Letestu deal in the works with Toronto?

Toronto has a few names that jump out to me like RH’d Connor Carrick (RFA), plus their UFAs Bozak, Komarov, and Van Riemsdyk. Not to mention a whole whack of guys on their AHL team like Andreas Johnsson, Jeremy Bracco, Andreas Borgman, Calle Rosen, Calvin Pickard and Garrett Sparks.

I think the thing with Toronto is that they’ll want more bodies moving out than coming in but the potential for a huge deal is there.

Speaking of Letestu, Jim Matheson wrote recently that in addition to Toronto, Columbus and Pittsburgh are interested in his services.

if the Penguins can’t bring back Matt Cullen from Minnesota, Letestu is their second choice.

One would think that Letestu would be the first choice due to age but Cullen would definitely know the Pens system a lot better.

Matheson also says that the Oilers are looking for a first rounder in exchange for Maroon but I’m thinking they’ll have to settle for a 2nd or 3rd and a prospect. Jakub Zboril’s name has come up from Boston and so has Zach Senyshyn’s but earlier this week Joe Haggerty said he couldn’t see Senyshyn getting moved.

Stauffer talked a bit about Anders Bjork yesterday and the report on Bjork is that he can move out there. A very fast player who has 12pts in 30 games this season for the Bruins and 4pts in 9 games for their AHL affiliate.

Bjork has the speed, offensive smarts and playmaking ability to potentially be a strong player in the NHL. If all goes well, he could be a second-liner.Dobber’s Prospects

I would say that Bjork is really the epitome of modern day NHL player. He can play both ways, relies heavily on his speed, and has “creative” hands. – Chowder and Champions

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I Didn’t Want to Write This But…

As we sit here on the morning of Wednesday, December the 7th and digest the fact that the Edmonton Oilers of the National Hockey League are sitting in 1st place of the Pacific Division, a portion of the fan base still feels the need to bitch and whine and moan about one player. The funny thing is, now that some light has been shed on that player by some pretty smart hockey minds leading to a prominent hockey voice within the oilogosphere to head down the road of conspiracy theories in an attempt to justify his failed witch hunt upon one, Kris Russell.

Now, before I get into this elongated diatribe, Russell has been hot garbage the last few games when paired up with Adam Larsson and that has done nothing but stoke the fires over at Camp Poopy Pants but as we know, hockey has its peaks and its valleys.

It’s my understanding that all of this really got going when Jim Matheson wrote about the Oilers possibly having an offer on the table for Kris Russell in the 3-4 year range (IIRC), and somebody took offense to this and wrote some pieces over at Oilers Nation regarding Russell the Love Muscle. Part 1 of those blogs included a shit ton of stats and numbers that painted the Oilers new #4 in a non-flattering light. You cannot argue with those numbers because they are, after all, factual, but it’s not fair to the target audience of the composition if the writer can’t show the other side of the coin.

What followed was a piece most recently by Mark Spector, and I believe this was the straw that broke the camel’s back for some. Now they aren’t happy with Chiarelli  because… Reasons.

https://twitter.com/SportsnetSpec/status/806361421823021056

I am not advocating that the Oilers re-sign Kris Russell for anything more than 1 year if they do indeed decide to bring him back. I’m of the belief that there will be better players available and by re-signing him, that puts a huge dent in the team’s ability to pick up that right-handed powerplay quarterback to which this season is a perfect season to be buying low. Check out the numbers on Tyson Barrie and Sami Vatanen, or even Travis Hamonic and try to disagree with me.

We move on to the dirty stuff now… If you want to skip this part, you can scroll down a bit and there are some interesting “facts” about Kris Russell that are actually in the positive.  Oh, there’s some BOLD language in this post. So you’ve been forewarned. And it’s kinda long. Good Luck! May the Russell be with you!

IS PETER CHIARELLI BEING TAKEN FOR A RIDE?

“Black Box Analytics” Get used to that term because that’s where amateur bloggers and statistics aficionados will be taking you. Taken from Mr.Henderson’s blog over at the highly-respected hockey trade rumors site, Hockeybuzz, we are gifted this definition of black box analytics:

Some firm has generated these numbers and presenting them with (we assume) some analysis to go along with it. We do not know their process. We do not have access to the numbers. We cannot test the numbers because they are hidden from us. We do not know what kind of analysis is being done, by whom, and for what profit.

Wait! That’s not a definition! And how noble of Mr.Henderson to be so protective of the Oilers’ financial well-being. God forbid a company make a profit! Off of the Oilers no less!!

A black box is any device whose workings are not understood by or accessible to its user. (source)

All I read from Henderson’s quote is a severe amount of insecurity. “We do not know their process. We do not have access to the numbers. We cannot test the numbers because they are hidden from us. We do not know what kind of analysis is being done. by whom, and for what profit.”

I don’t know why he keeps saying “we” when it should be “I” and boo f*cking hoo. You don’t know something. Welcome to the club. The fact of the matter is that this one blogger is losing his shit (and his credibility) because he’s gone to ridiculous lengths to come to a very public and questionable conclusion that is slightly flawed but he cannot gain access to the information that may justify the outcome of his research or give him insight into where he IS wrong (which at this point, he’s so convinced that he isn’t in the wrong that he’s talking about black box analytics). It’s ignorant and arrogant.

SERIOUS PSA

So kids, in this case, when there’s SOOOOOO much you cannot do or do not know; you go and talk to the people with the information you want (or need in this case) OR you start to do your own analysis. YOU go and track the player, YOU write down your findings, YOU share your new research results with the online community and open them up for critique because you want that. You want to know where the faults lie within your research so that you can find the true answer.

WHAT WE DON’T DO

Don’t be a little bitch and go down conspiracy theory road because you’re too encumbered by “life” and for sure don’t try to sell yourself to the public that you’re some sort of authority or influencer on the topic if you’re not willing to go the extra mile! And especially, this one is key, don’t post your conspiracy theory on a well-known hockey rumors website. If you’re so convinced, put it up on a respectable platform like Oilers Nation 🙂

It all stinks of desperation and I’m surprised it has come this far.

COULD HENDERSON BE RIGHT?

OF COURSE, there’s a possibility that everything Mr.Henderson is claiming is true but that is no more a possibility than Kris Russell being the worst dman in the history of the NHL. Why? Because it is so bloody apparent that Henderson has an agenda and, at least to me, this is his way of expressing his displeasure towards Peter Chiarelli for trading his favorite hockey player, Taylor Hall.

I guess that’s one route to take but good luck. You’re going to need it.

WHAT DOES KRIS RUSSELL DO RIGHT?

Now, I’m sure “black box analysis” will be a new buzzword going forth because the people using it and believing in it will refuse to admit their ignorance and blissfully look the other way when they are shown up. We’ve got people like former Edmonton Oiler Brad Werenka, who works for a hockey analytics company called True Performance Hockey, who said this past week on Inside Sports with Reid Wilkins that Kris Russell was akin to that of Charlie Huddy or Randy Gregg back in the Oilers’ hay day. These defensemen have value.

From Wilkins’ show:

Wilkins: Can I ask you, is there a player like that in today’s game that’s a bit of an analytics star in today’s game like that?

Werenka: Well, there’s several defenseman, Kris Russell is one of those guys who scores very well because he does stuff that denies opportunities and takes chances away and one of those is obviously blocked shots. 

So even within the Twittersphere there are comments that support Kris Russell.

I could be wrong but having a dman who ranks high in 5×5 SV% should be good, no? We’d like our goalie to be saving the puck more often than not when Russell is on the ice, right? I don’t claim to be a stats guy and I could be reading Willis’ tweet all wrong though. I’ll leave it to you to let me know.

https://twitter.com/MikeKellyNHL/status/805875198985637888

Well this certainly HAS to be of some importance. The Oilers are 11th in the NHL in PK% (at one time they were 2nd). Do you think Kris Russell has had an impact on the Oilers PK?

https://twitter.com/MikeKellyNHL/status/805874972484837376

More than Connor McDavid? That’s insane but hey, why give that guy the puck if he’s so shitty, right?

https://twitter.com/hockeyanalysis/status/748872150036123648

https://twitter.com/hockeyanalysis/status/748872904763379713

Wanna know what that stat is this season @5×5, 200 min TOI? 12.2. Kris Russell relative to his teammates has a 12.2 goals for %. That is good for 28th in the NHL. That is a first pairing defenseman. It’s better than Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson, Ryan Suter, M.E. Vlasic, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Brent Burns, Alex Pietrangelo, Victor Hedman, Duncan Keith, etc… So keep telling me how bad Kris Russell is. (source)

https://twitter.com/hockeyanalysis/status/805627781191180289

Yes, Mr. Henderson. When will it end?

BLH, DON’T YOU HAVE YOUR OWN QUESTIONS ABOUT RUSSELL?

I do have my own questions as to why Kris Russell has become such a point of debate amongst hockey fans, the first one included in the tweet below and the second following it.

So a player’s performance has nothing to do with the team’s record? If that’s the case, and I’m sure to be misunderstanding something, take McDavid out of the lineup and tell me that correlation doesn’t equal causation. Then enjoy your tasty bowl of frosted dicks.

And if Russell’s performances aren’t equal or at least offer a contribution to the Oilers results, what the fuck are we even talking about then? He’s the worst player by certain stats on this team, great. You’ve done the world an unthankable (I don’t think that’s a word) service by pointing our Russell’s flaws…

This team is first in its division and has been consistently in the top half of the Western Conference this season to date. IF you think you’re so smart, show me where Kris Russell is preventing the Oilers from winning better or more. Show me which player on the Oilers roster is better suited for the role that Kris Russell is filling.

We should know by now that teams take time to get on top. LA, Chicago, Pittsburgh, St.Louis, Washington, Anaheim, San Jose, Boston, Montreal, etc. They were all shit at one point or another and then they turned it around. Was it immediate? No. Was it gradual? Yes! Did their GMs make some questionable moves and miss out on some high-end draft picks, fuck ya they did!

I don’t even really know why these posts by Matt have got me all worked up but they have. I have no problem with wanting the Oilers to be better and I definitely don’t have a problem with questioning “the man” but I do not believe for one second that Chiarelli is doing a bad job. And the NHL standings tell me that the stamp that he has put on this team has been a positive one.

I am on #TeamChiarelli because he’s done just *that* much better than MacTavish, Tambellini, and Lowe…

Rant over. Weight off of chest. Have a good evening/morning/afternoon!

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