Tag Archives: Seattle Hockey

Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors, Trades

The Latest Oilers Trade Rumblings and Compliance Buyouts Are Coming According to John Shannon

First off I want to say that I’m very proud of the Women’s Canadian Hockey team. That was such a good hockey game and they worked their asses off. That move the American shooter made to win it was outstanding though. Seriously…

A silver medal is nothing to scoff at no matter how much Lias Andersson tries to convince you it is. And those ladies join another elite hockey team to lose a very important hockey game at the Olympics in Asia via the shootout…

99 on the bench after losing to the Czechs in ’98 at Nagano, Japan.

On yesterday’s Oilers Now, Bob Stauffer asked John Shannon a very interesting question,

Do you think that it’s an automatic that there are two non-compliance options options (going to be in the new CBA), like there have been in past CBAs?

John Shannon’s reply was, “Guaranteed!”

I’m a little confused at this point as to which kind of compliance buyouts Stauffer and Shannon are talking about. I reckon Stauffer is talking about compliance buy outs NOT non-compliance ones though.

But just to relieve any confusion, let’s go over their definitions:

  • Non-Compliance Buyout – Consider this the “regular” buyout like the one Chiarelli used on Pouliot last summer. NHL teams can choose to buy out and terminate any player’s standard player contract. It isn’t quite as easy as just cutting a player though, because any bought-out player is still due a portion of the money owed to him; either one-third or two-thirds of his remaining salary (depending on the terms of the original deal) to be paid out over twice the remaining years of the terminated contract.
  • Compliance Buyout – This is the “Get Out of Jail Free” buyout. Basically, teams can buy out any contract on their roster and it won’t count against their cap but it has to be a contract signed.

Now with those compliance (or amnesty) buyouts, in the past, there’s been a 2-week window right after the Stanley Cup final’s conclusion where the teams could do their business if you will. Also, the last time compliance buyouts were eligible to be utilized, only players who’d signed contracts on or before Sept.12 of 2012 were given the O.K. to be bought out and this was for the 2013 and 2014 seasons…

2021/22 is when the current CBA expires and conversely, the new Seattle franchise is expected to join the league the season previous. I don’t think that it would be in the league’s best interest to expand, have the new team play a year and then have a lockout. Both the NHL (Sept.1) or the NHLPA (Sept.19) can opt out next summer (2019/20) but that’s unlikely according to Shannon.

I know when I write on these kinds of things I feel like I’ve glossed something over, so please feel free to let me know if I’ve gotten something wrong in my interpretation either in the comments below or on Twitter (@beerleagueheroe). Thx!

HOW MIGHT THIS AFFECT THE OILERS?

If I’m right in interpreting the verbiage from past compliance buyout windows, it might allow them to buy out Milan Lucic IF he’s still with the club. I was thinking possibly Sekera and/or Russell but their contracts will have expired by the time a window opens and there’s no guarantee they’d be on the club at that point either. I’m thinking one of them will be in Seattle and the other playing in a different city.

  • Milan Lucic is signed for $6M/yr until 2022/23

But there’s the fact that Lucic’s deal is so laden with signing bonuses, would it even be worth it to the team to buy out the last year of his deal?

So I guess the only players who might be considered in the compliance buyout category at this point in time are Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid… Unlikely targets but you never know… Maybe the Oilers go on to sign John Carlson to a mega-deal this summer and he shits the bed for them… Or maybe they trade for Erik Karlsson and he slows right the F down in those later years and becomes a liability. I guess at that point, a compliance buyout might be an option for the Oilers.

The other thing Edmonton could do is acquire heavy contracts in exchange for tasty draft picks or prospects and then buy them out in the windows. Similar to what the Vegas or Arizona have done in the past.

I mean other teams could simply do that themselves but what if there’s a team that is desperate to get a contract off of the books, in theory, my notion above would be applicable, no? I guess the follow up to that would be, how much cap room will the Oilers have by then and if they have enough cap room to make such a move, why is that?

What do you think? Have I got it all wrong here?

LATEST ON THE OILERS TRADE FRONT

Erik Karlsson…

No, I don’t believe that the Oilers and Sens are talking Karlsson and Bobby Ryan because Eklund tweeted that out. But I do believe it’s worth a discussion IF the Sens would take Lucic back.

I love Lucic, I really do, and I want him to succeed but it’s really hard to watch him this year. He tries to engage in the games but nobody will fight him, nobody will even hit him. So the things that got him fired up in the past aren’t available anymore and he’s struggling to get out of this slump. He’s squeezing his stick way to tightly, he’s doing fly bys at the net when he should be stopping.

He looks tired.

I’d feel bad for him if he got dealt this early into his deal but it would be what it would be if it happened. I’d accept it and move on. I’d much rather him see success as part of the Oilers than another team obviously.

I don’t want to get into the details of a proper proposal but I do want to offer an idea to you…

What if the Oilers went ahead and traded for Karlsson and then traded him at the deadline next year? What kind of haul do you think the Oilers could get IF Doughty and OEL were on the market too? Not only that but what if the Oilers also won the lottery and drafted Dahlin?

Bob Stauffer also said yesterday that the Maple Leafs have watched the Oilers five of the last 7 games… They’re not looking at Maroon and I can only assume they’re not looking at Cammalleri…. Is there a Josh Leivo/Mark Letestu deal in the works with Toronto?

Toronto has a few names that jump out to me like RH’d Connor Carrick (RFA), plus their UFAs Bozak, Komarov, and Van Riemsdyk. Not to mention a whole whack of guys on their AHL team like Andreas Johnsson, Jeremy Bracco, Andreas Borgman, Calle Rosen, Calvin Pickard and Garrett Sparks.

I think the thing with Toronto is that they’ll want more bodies moving out than coming in but the potential for a huge deal is there.

Speaking of Letestu, Jim Matheson wrote recently that in addition to Toronto, Columbus and Pittsburgh are interested in his services.

if the Penguins can’t bring back Matt Cullen from Minnesota, Letestu is their second choice.

One would think that Letestu would be the first choice due to age but Cullen would definitely know the Pens system a lot better.

Matheson also says that the Oilers are looking for a first rounder in exchange for Maroon but I’m thinking they’ll have to settle for a 2nd or 3rd and a prospect. Jakub Zboril’s name has come up from Boston and so has Zach Senyshyn’s but earlier this week Joe Haggerty said he couldn’t see Senyshyn getting moved.

Stauffer talked a bit about Anders Bjork yesterday and the report on Bjork is that he can move out there. A very fast player who has 12pts in 30 games this season for the Bruins and 4pts in 9 games for their AHL affiliate.

Bjork has the speed, offensive smarts and playmaking ability to potentially be a strong player in the NHL. If all goes well, he could be a second-liner. – Dobber’s Prospects

I would say that Bjork is really the epitome of modern day NHL player. He can play both ways, relies heavily on his speed, and has “creative” hands. – Chowder and Champions

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Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Prospects, Rumors, Trades

How Will the Oilers Deal with the Seattle Expansion? PLUS Trade Rumors and Proposals

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This morning I was discussing a hypothetical trade with some of my followers on Twitter (@beerleagueheroe) and one person brought up that the Oilers will need to think about the returns they get this year and how they might pertain to the Seattle expansion draft. I thought it was an interesting thing to go over, so I want to do that briefly and then go over some trade rumors real and proposed by myself.

SEATTLE

We’ve been told that the expansion draft rules will be the same for the Seattle franchise as they were for Vegas. Below I’ve copied and pasted right from NHL.com said expansion rules.

Protected Lists
* Clubs will have two options for players they wish to protect in the Expansion Draft:

a) Seven forwards, three defensemen and one goaltender

b) Eight skaters (forwards/defensemen) and one goaltender

* All players who have currently effective and continuing “No Movement” clauses at the time of the Expansion Draft (and who to decline to waive such clauses) must be protected (and will be counted toward their club’s applicable protection limits).

* All first- and second-year professionals, as well as all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward their club’s applicable protection limits).

Player Exposure Requirements

* All Clubs must meet the following minimum requirements regarding players exposed for selection in the Expansion Draft:

i) One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2017-18 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.

ii) Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2017-18 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.

iii) One goaltender who is under contract in 2017-18 or will be a restricted free agent at the expiration of his current contract immediately prior to 2017-18. If the club elects to make a restricted free agent goaltender available in order to meet this requirement, that goaltender must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the club’s protected list.

* Players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed more than the previous 60 consecutive games (or who otherwise have been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury) may not be used to satisfy a club’s player exposure requirements, unless approval is received from the NHL. Such players also may be deemed exempt from selection by the League.

POTENTIAL OILERS ROSTER IN 2020

LW C RW LD RD G
Lucic McDavid Pulju Nurse Larsson no
Caggiula Draisaitl Yamamoto Klefbom Sekera tendy
Khaira RNH Strome Russell Benning past ’19
(open) (open) (open Davidson

Red=NMC/NTC, Blue=RFA signing this yr, Green=Expansion exempt

Please let me know if I’ve left someone out!

I’m just assuming that all of, or most of, the RFAs will be re-signed up to at least 2020. But the Oilers will have to have at least 1 goalie to expose. So keep an eye on what happens with Cam Talbot in the next summer or two.

I didn’t include any farm kids because I’m not sure if any of them will get 40 games combined in the next two seasons to force them to become expansion eligible.

Zack Kassian’s deal runs out the summer of the proposed expansion draft, so he’d still technically be part of the roster and could be left unprotected like Derek Engelland was for Vegas.

So if we’re hypothesizing here with the two protection lists, what would yours look like?

  • A) Lucic, McDavid, Draisaitl, Puljujarvi, RNH, Khaira, Strome, Nurse, Sekera, Russell, Goalie A?
  • B) Lucic, McDavid, Draisaitl, Puljujarvi, Nurse, Larsson, Sekera, Russell, Goalie

Either way, the Oilers are kinda hooped, no?

In option A, they’re forced to expose one of Klefbom, Nurse, Larsson, or Benning. In option B, they’re forced to expose Puljujarvi or RNH on fwd and one of Nurse, Klefbom, Larsson, or Benning on D.

Now, will there be a lockout again and with said lockout compliance buyouts? Which player with an NMC would be the best to let go strategically? Lucic, Sekera, or Russell? And who gets dealt first, RNH or one of the young D (Larsson/Klefbom)?

**EDIT** The NTC/NMC thing is a bit tricky. I didn’t read up on it before. But here’s the gist. NTCs don’t have to be protected but NMCs do. So Lucic’s no-movement clause switches to a no-trade clause (player submits list) a year after the supposed Seattle expansion draft. The Oilers are stuck with him unless there’s a lockout w/compliance buyouts. BUT Russell+Sekera’s NMCs switch to modified NTCs the season before the Seattle expansion draft. Therefore, they can be exposed. I hope I got that right! Sorry for the confusion! Read more here.**

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TRADE RUMORS/PROPOSALS

This section and the above are not connected, think of them as separate blogs. I don’t want to confuse anybody into thinking I’m writing about expansion and then trade proposals that would hurt the Oilers expansion draft strategy. I’m just shootin’ the shit here.

I guess Max Domi is on the block. That’s really interesting to me because I feel like he’s a pretty decent player having a tough go in the desert right now. It’s not like an analytics-leaning GM to deal a young player like this unless of course, it’s been suggested to him by an agent.

Max Domi is in the final year of his entry-level contract and will be an RFA this summer.

He has been in pretty sharp decline since his first season though.

  • 2014/15 – 54pts (81 gp + 18 goals)
  • 2015/16 – 38pts (59 gp +9 goals)
  • 2017/18 – 22pts (52 gp +3 goals) to date.

Domi and McDavid are pretty good buddies. Tie’s kid can skate and shoot and he’s as fearless as they come. Top that off with his willingness to correct the other team’s behaviour with his fists and I think we’ve got the kind of player who would thrive in Edmonton.

I wonder what the Coyotes are looking for here? Would they accept Ryan Strome and one of the Oilers’ D prospects not yet in Bakersfield? I know the narrative is a tad Hollywood but I’m thinking Jujhar Khaira is a better fit for 3C than Strome for the Oilers and the Elder Strome would slide right into Max’s 3C role in Arizona seamlessly. He’d also be one of the older forwards on the Coyotes upon arrival as well.

At the beginning of this blog I talked about a trade proposal I sent out on Twitter that got the conversation about expansion started. Here it is:

What if the Oilers had two offers on Patrick Maroon,

  • From Toronto: Josh Leivo + Nikita Soshnikov (Both RFAs this summer)
  • From St.Louis: Jordan Kyrou

Which one would YOU pick or would you hold off for something better?

So as it pertains to the expansion draft, maybe you take the World Junior and OHL scoring standout Jordan Kyrou since he’d be exempt or do you take the duo from Toronto because they offer skilled depth and the Oilers HAVE to make a better run for the playoffs next year and not even think about the Seattle expansion draft…

Tough call…

What do you think? Let us know in the comments below!

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