Tag Archives: John Shannon

Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers

2019/20 Edmonton Oilers: Insiders Split On When Hockey Will Return

I’ll tell ya what, this is an awesome challenge being presented to sportswriters and bloggers everywhere. On a normal day, one has something to write about be that the game msot recently played or some roster speculation, perhaps something on prospect development, or even the upcoming draft. But when there’s no hockey being played, things get quite difficult I’ve found.

I mean look at the Athletic, for example, Oilers writer Jonathan Willis has gone back to ragging on Peter Chiarelli for his latest article and this guy is one of the more talented writers out there. He simply grabbed an interview between Chiarelli and Bruce Garrioch out of Ottawa and gave his two cents on the former Oilers GM’s comments…

Luckily for me, the boys on the radio haven’t let me down.

Yesterday on Oilers Now, Bob Stauffer interviewed both John Shannon and Mark Spector (Sportsnet) and he posed the same question to both,

“What percentage possibility would we have that we would have a Stanley Cup playoffs and a Stanley Cup Champion?” 

Spec said his gut tells him there’s a lot closer to a 25% chance that this happens. He basically said that hockey is at the behest of the governments of Canada and the US and when they decide that it’s safe to congregate in groups of more than 50 people (for example), then we might see some hockey.

“I don’t like the chances, Bob. I hope I’m wrong.”

Stauffer added this,

“Mark, if we get shut down for six more weeks here and they can hit the ice (around) basically May 1st and then we’re up and running for the playoffs May 15th. That’s the only way it’s feasible and a lot of things would have to go right for that to occur here.”

Mark Spector briefly noted that hockey would suffer if it were played in August. He thought the interest would be minimal if they were playing hockey in the summer.

Really? He reckons that there isn’t going to be any interest after the game was ripped out of our hands on the brink of the post-season? You have to be kidding me… Hockey fans are nuts. They’ll watch it on the moon if they have to. In addition to that, I don’t hear anybody complaining about the u-18s going in during August or the World Cups in September…

Shannon said he thinks there’s a 75% chance.

“First of all, let’s put this in practical terms. We all believe that the next 14-15 days are the most important of COVID-19 and the spread and containment of it. if everyone does their part then in 15 days from now we’ll get a better indication and that to me is a lamen and I do believe that the people in professional sports have had a much greater dialogue and understanding of what’s going on with the virus and in reading and in talking to a few people, they’ve said that the optimal opportunity is within 45 days of the 60-day CDC ban or suggested deployment of “nothing going on” that they could be in camp. And so I truly believe within our 15-day window and then another month we’ll have a great indication that the teams can go back to practice. 

Now, do I know that the virus is going to be contained? Absolutely not, but I do believe that it will pass and I believe that what we’ve witnessed what’s going on in China recently where there’s a decline in the virus, that we’re going to be in much better shape because we’ve admitted there’s an issue right from the beginning unlike some other countries.”

I like John Shannon, but North America wasn’t one of the parts of the world that hopped on this from the beginning. I was under the impression that Canada and the USA took action quite late and are now “paying the price” if you will.

Bob said he’s 50/50 on the NHL playoffs returning and Stanley Cup being rewarded.

Now, Am I missing something here? Is somebody going to magically make this virus disappear by the end of the week? I don’t think people back home get the severity of how contagious it is and if you saw the pictures posted from a Florida beach over the weekend, I don’t think the public has an idea either.

From last night to this morning, the global confirmed cases of infection went up 30,000 people approximately and we’re not even getting started yet. How in the world does anybody think that there’s even a snowball’s chance in hell that ANYTHING gets going before July?

From what I’ve read, a couple of things have to happen in order to really get a handle on this thing. Herd immunity where there are more infected than not. In order for that to happen, the numbers would have to spike at an unbelievable rate and that would put already stressed-out health care systems at high risk for failure, or a flattening of the curve where the health authorities manage to simply slow down the infection rate to the point to where it’s manageable.

I’ve seen online that the vaccines are on the way but it’s still going to be some time before they can be produced at the level required to stunt this virus globally.

The big thing standing in the way is the lack of testing that’s taking place in some countries and once that challenge is solved, the numbers will climb even more.

I kind of thought that for normal life to resume, the risk of catching this “bug” needs to be zero to none.

If we’re being honest here, I’m preparing for the season to be scrapped. I’m just waiting for an actual confirmation or else I’d just go directly into my off-season blogging content but I can’t do that because I’d feel like an ass if I started posting those articles and then the season actually came back.

I hope that John Shannon’s optimism pays off and everybody is back to normal in two weeks, I really do. I just have a hard time coming to grips with that reality right now and I feel that until it hits North America at full power, the public there has no idea and won’t until it’s too late. I even think that Mark Spector’s 25% is too high.

What do you think? What percentage do you give it that hockey will be back, the playoffs will be played, and the Stanley Cup will be rewarded? Let us know in the comments!

If you’ve got a free moment, please head over to our Instagram account and give us a follow! We’re posting over there daily and we believe that the content is a nice escape from reality.

On the bright side, the break has allowed me to watch some old games on YouTube.

So far I’ve watched game 2 of the 1986 Smythe Division finals between Calgary and Edmonton and I’m just getting into game 7 of the 1987 Stanley Cup Final. The one thing that I’ve taken from both games is that there’s no doubt in my mind that Paul Coffey is the best skater of all-time. He’s completely unmatched. Connor is a close second, but he doesn’t have the grace that Coffey had.

Have you been watching any old games? If so, which ones? Do you have any suggestions?

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Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors, Trades

The Latest Oilers Trade Rumblings and Compliance Buyouts Are Coming According to John Shannon

First off I want to say that I’m very proud of the Women’s Canadian Hockey team. That was such a good hockey game and they worked their asses off. That move the American shooter made to win it was outstanding though. Seriously…

A silver medal is nothing to scoff at no matter how much Lias Andersson tries to convince you it is. And those ladies join another elite hockey team to lose a very important hockey game at the Olympics in Asia via the shootout…

99 on the bench after losing to the Czechs in ’98 at Nagano, Japan.

On yesterday’s Oilers Now, Bob Stauffer asked John Shannon a very interesting question,

Do you think that it’s an automatic that there are two non-compliance options options (going to be in the new CBA), like there have been in past CBAs?

John Shannon’s reply was, “Guaranteed!”

I’m a little confused at this point as to which kind of compliance buyouts Stauffer and Shannon are talking about. I reckon Stauffer is talking about compliance buy outs NOT non-compliance ones though.

But just to relieve any confusion, let’s go over their definitions:

  • Non-Compliance Buyout – Consider this the “regular” buyout like the one Chiarelli used on Pouliot last summer. NHL teams can choose to buy out and terminate any player’s standard player contract. It isn’t quite as easy as just cutting a player though, because any bought-out player is still due a portion of the money owed to him; either one-third or two-thirds of his remaining salary (depending on the terms of the original deal) to be paid out over twice the remaining years of the terminated contract.
  • Compliance Buyout – This is the “Get Out of Jail Free” buyout. Basically, teams can buy out any contract on their roster and it won’t count against their cap but it has to be a contract signed.

Now with those compliance (or amnesty) buyouts, in the past, there’s been a 2-week window right after the Stanley Cup final’s conclusion where the teams could do their business if you will. Also, the last time compliance buyouts were eligible to be utilized, only players who’d signed contracts on or before Sept.12 of 2012 were given the O.K. to be bought out and this was for the 2013 and 2014 seasons…

2021/22 is when the current CBA expires and conversely, the new Seattle franchise is expected to join the league the season previous. I don’t think that it would be in the league’s best interest to expand, have the new team play a year and then have a lockout. Both the NHL (Sept.1) or the NHLPA (Sept.19) can opt out next summer (2019/20) but that’s unlikely according to Shannon.

I know when I write on these kinds of things I feel like I’ve glossed something over, so please feel free to let me know if I’ve gotten something wrong in my interpretation either in the comments below or on Twitter (@beerleagueheroe). Thx!

HOW MIGHT THIS AFFECT THE OILERS?

If I’m right in interpreting the verbiage from past compliance buyout windows, it might allow them to buy out Milan Lucic IF he’s still with the club. I was thinking possibly Sekera and/or Russell but their contracts will have expired by the time a window opens and there’s no guarantee they’d be on the club at that point either. I’m thinking one of them will be in Seattle and the other playing in a different city.

  • Milan Lucic is signed for $6M/yr until 2022/23

But there’s the fact that Lucic’s deal is so laden with signing bonuses, would it even be worth it to the team to buy out the last year of his deal?

So I guess the only players who might be considered in the compliance buyout category at this point in time are Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid… Unlikely targets but you never know… Maybe the Oilers go on to sign John Carlson to a mega-deal this summer and he shits the bed for them… Or maybe they trade for Erik Karlsson and he slows right the F down in those later years and becomes a liability. I guess at that point, a compliance buyout might be an option for the Oilers.

The other thing Edmonton could do is acquire heavy contracts in exchange for tasty draft picks or prospects and then buy them out in the windows. Similar to what the Vegas or Arizona have done in the past.

I mean other teams could simply do that themselves but what if there’s a team that is desperate to get a contract off of the books, in theory, my notion above would be applicable, no? I guess the follow up to that would be, how much cap room will the Oilers have by then and if they have enough cap room to make such a move, why is that?

What do you think? Have I got it all wrong here?

LATEST ON THE OILERS TRADE FRONT

Erik Karlsson…

No, I don’t believe that the Oilers and Sens are talking Karlsson and Bobby Ryan because Eklund tweeted that out. But I do believe it’s worth a discussion IF the Sens would take Lucic back.

I love Lucic, I really do, and I want him to succeed but it’s really hard to watch him this year. He tries to engage in the games but nobody will fight him, nobody will even hit him. So the things that got him fired up in the past aren’t available anymore and he’s struggling to get out of this slump. He’s squeezing his stick way to tightly, he’s doing fly bys at the net when he should be stopping.

He looks tired.

I’d feel bad for him if he got dealt this early into his deal but it would be what it would be if it happened. I’d accept it and move on. I’d much rather him see success as part of the Oilers than another team obviously.

I don’t want to get into the details of a proper proposal but I do want to offer an idea to you…

What if the Oilers went ahead and traded for Karlsson and then traded him at the deadline next year? What kind of haul do you think the Oilers could get IF Doughty and OEL were on the market too? Not only that but what if the Oilers also won the lottery and drafted Dahlin?

Bob Stauffer also said yesterday that the Maple Leafs have watched the Oilers five of the last 7 games… They’re not looking at Maroon and I can only assume they’re not looking at Cammalleri…. Is there a Josh Leivo/Mark Letestu deal in the works with Toronto?

Toronto has a few names that jump out to me like RH’d Connor Carrick (RFA), plus their UFAs Bozak, Komarov, and Van Riemsdyk. Not to mention a whole whack of guys on their AHL team like Andreas Johnsson, Jeremy Bracco, Andreas Borgman, Calle Rosen, Calvin Pickard and Garrett Sparks.

I think the thing with Toronto is that they’ll want more bodies moving out than coming in but the potential for a huge deal is there.

Speaking of Letestu, Jim Matheson wrote recently that in addition to Toronto, Columbus and Pittsburgh are interested in his services.

if the Penguins can’t bring back Matt Cullen from Minnesota, Letestu is their second choice.

One would think that Letestu would be the first choice due to age but Cullen would definitely know the Pens system a lot better.

Matheson also says that the Oilers are looking for a first rounder in exchange for Maroon but I’m thinking they’ll have to settle for a 2nd or 3rd and a prospect. Jakub Zboril’s name has come up from Boston and so has Zach Senyshyn’s but earlier this week Joe Haggerty said he couldn’t see Senyshyn getting moved.

Stauffer talked a bit about Anders Bjork yesterday and the report on Bjork is that he can move out there. A very fast player who has 12pts in 30 games this season for the Bruins and 4pts in 9 games for their AHL affiliate.

Bjork has the speed, offensive smarts and playmaking ability to potentially be a strong player in the NHL. If all goes well, he could be a second-liner. – Dobber’s Prospects

I would say that Bjork is really the epitome of modern day NHL player. He can play both ways, relies heavily on his speed, and has “creative” hands. – Chowder and Champions

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Armchair GM, Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Rumors, Trades

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jesse Puljujarvi Being Targeted According to Shannon

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Yesterday on the Monday edition of Oilers Now! Bob Stauffer and his guest John Shannon from Sportsnet had a good conversation on the Oilers and of course the latest trade rumors.

Below you’ll read about the rumor that Jimmy Murphy put out over the weekend but Bob won’t say his name and I wonder why that is?… It bugs me a bit to be honest. I find it a bit disingenuous and kind of rude. I mean if you’re going to go as far as to mention where you heard it days after Twitter has dissected it, you might as well give credit to the source of the rumor…

Anyways, to the quote…

Stauffer: Let me ask you this, part of the reason we get you on John is to talk about league stuff, How much are you hearing, I saw a rumour out of Boston from a fellow who suggests that the Oilers and Boston were talking Nugent-Hopkins and he said it was basically in embryonic stages, early stages. I think he said Danton Heinen and Peter Cehlarik and I was like, “yeah, I don’t see that happening.” I don’t know how Boston can do that. Boston has $62M committed moving forward for their team as well but I don’t see that happening with Nugent-Hopkins. I think that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is here to stay this year.

But are you hearing anything at all about the position the Oilers are in right now? Because I don’t see Edmonton being sellers. I still think that the Oilers think that they can chase down a playoff spot. They do have some unrestricted free agents that maybe get moved at some stage for some pieces but I’d like to get your thoughts…

Mark Letestu, Pat Maroon, Mike Cammalleri are those UFAs that Bob is talking about. All of them would definitely provide useful services to a playoff team (including the Oilers) and my question is, what kind of “pieces” would the Oilers want? Draft picks? Prospects? Cap Space?

Lowetide did up a pretty good summary of what he thought the Oilers could get in return for their assets over at The Athletic. I’m not sure if you’re signed up for that publication or not but if you are, HERE is the link and if you aren’t, click THIS LINK and sign up because a) you get 25% off (I think that will cost you like $5 a month or something cheap like that in total) and b) I get a hearty handshake from The Athletic in the form of a $10 Amazon credit. I imagine some of you will be apprehensive because of the amount of stats-leaning writers but there’s much MUCH more to it. Justin Bourne’s breakdowns are f*cking amazing! Portzline’s Q&A posts are really cool! Craig Custance has a podcast on it, and I also like Pierre LeBrun’s insider info!

I recommend you read Lowetide’s article completely for full effect but if you want the Cole’s notes version, here you go (in my words):

Rentals – draft picks 4th round plus or young winger with NHL potential
Standard Turris/Duchene-like trade – higher end prospect (former 1st rounder) or a true NHL player with some zip to his stride.
Salary dump – very little. maybe a player of the same position. most likely the Oilers would have to pay to move these players.

Shannon:Well, I’ll tell you what, IF the Oilers were sellers or IF the Oilers felt like they needed an upgrade and they needed to sacrifice someone, to me, there are only two people in the whole organization that anybody would want anything of, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is one of them and the potential of Jesse Puljujarvi is the other. 

So those are the only two people I can guarantee you that Peter Chiarelli has been taking phone calls on. Bob you know GMs in this league, they’re trying to fleece you anyway.

Of course those would be the players. The GMs are preying on Chiarelli’s reputation for dealing away young talent but the difference is, the Oilers don’t have to trade RNH or Pulju. Hall needed to go to shake the foundation of the team and Eberle had to go because he made too much money for the production he was putting out. RNH is contributing a lot this season (basically replacing Eberle’s offense at centre) and Pulju has already shown us that he’s a much better fit on the Oilers than he is on the Bakersfield Condors.

When the pro scouts are around the Edmonton Oilers, the two guys that are at the top of the list are Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jesse Puljujarvi.

Obviously the Oilers will want something big if either of those two are to move. I’m talking about a Tyson Barrie or a Justin Faulk but I’ve been told that neither of those dmen are available anymore.

Shannon: I’m not suggesting the Oilers are shopping him (Puljujarvi) at all, I’m not.

But he is saying that Peter Chiarelli is taking calls on him… So PC is feeling out the market on the Finn by not including him in the same untouchable group as Darnell Nurse or Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl.

If I’m Chiarelli and I’m not 100% convinced about Puljujarvi, I still hold onto him until I know what’s going to happen with Drew Doughty, Erik Karlsson, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson because I know for a fact, those teams will want an arm and a leg for those players and at Puljujarvi’s age and potential, he’ll still be a wanted commodity. Also, he’ll be on a cheap contract.

I guess if one were really putting everything together, RNH, Puljujarvi, and a 1st rounder would surely land you one of those three soon-to-be-UFA superstar dmen above, no? At least put you at the top of the list of teams to negotiate with.

Blake Wheeler vs. Jesse Puljujarvi

I’m not sure I buy the comparison much. Wheeler had the advantage of coming into the NHL at the age of 22 and immediately being a 40pt player.

Now, what I would look at is what changed when the Thrashers moved to Winnipeg because he went from a 40pt player to a 60pt player. If you know what the catalyst was that sparked Wheeler’s production, please enlighten me in the comments below!

IF it takes Pulju 6 years to develop into a Wheeler-type player, I think it would be in the best interests of the Edmonton Oilers to keep him under contract cheap until that potential is realized because it’s not like Puljujarvi is useless without the puck, he isn’t. He’s actually quite useful and his defensive game is far more developed than most players his age. I’d milk all he’s worth until he started displaying that offensive potential. I’ve even heard from pundits that perhaps Puljujarvi’s future lies at center… Wouldn’t that be something?

What do you think about Shannon’s comments? Let us know in the comments below!