Tag Archives: Oilers

Today’s Oilers Rumours: My Take

The Edmonton Oilers bye week is upon us and not that we’ve got 5 days of no Oilers hockey there’s not a lot going on in the rumor mill these days regarding the Oilers so what we’re seeing is some fan fiction being tossed about on Twitter. Today, we had two instances, one coming from Alan Hull (Copper and Blue) and another from Josh Marshall (I know you’re asking yourself, who? It’s fine, you’re not the only one wondering.) and I’m going to offer my commentary on both if you please. If you don’t, go here.

Let’s start with the more notable of the two.

I think Brain Boyle must be Brian Boyle’s smarter cousin or it could just be a typo. Anyways, I don’t think that the Lightning are looking to deal for Davidson. Reason being, they have younger dmen who are equally as good, if not better AND they have three actual NHL defenders on the left side in Hedman, Garrison, and Coburn. Yes, Brandon Davidson can play the right side but even there Tampa has Stralman, Sustr, and Witkowski. One would have to argue if Davidson is better than Witkowski IF that was even an option. Jon Cooper likes his righty/lefty pairings on D. You can check out their organizational depth

You can check out their organizational depth here.

From an Oilers perspective, this would be a steal of a deal. Edmonton would get their BIG strapping centre who’s good on the dot, it would give them some more centre depth, and he’s very experienced playoff in the post-season. Being a 32-year old UFA at the end of the year wouldn’t worry them one bit.

From a Tampa Bay expansion perspective, the Lightning are a tad screwed. Stralman, Hedman, Garrison, and Coburn all have no-movement clauses and to add to that group on forward are Ryan Callahan, Valtteri Filppula, and Steven Stamkos. So that is 7 players they need to protect and automatically are forced into the 4-4-1 format for the expansion draft unless one or more of them agree to waive their clause. One of those players could do that this month and make Steve Yzerman’s job a bit easier too. In that scenario, MAYBE Davidson

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becomes a member of the Lightning.

So I call BS on Mr.Marshall’s “breaking news”.

Alex Thomas from the Oilers Rig also offered his take on this rumour here. Thomas’ coverage of the rumour is tight and worth a read but it’s this one sentence that irks me a bit.

Tampa Bay is in desperate need of young defenders

This is simply not true. If you look at the link above and check out their org. depth, you’ll see that of the left-handed defenseman in the Lightning’s pipeline that there are players like Slater Koekkoek, Dominek Masin, and Jonathan Racine playing in the AHL. We could add to them the Saskatoon Blades’ Libor Hajek. So they’re not “desperate” by any means. Could they get younger, YES! Coburn and Garrison are in the latter halves of their careers and not getting any faster.

I agree with Thomas, in that the Oiler should pull the trigger, I just don’t see it as realistic.

HULL OF A EFFORT

To NYI:Jordan Eberle (RW) & Kris Russell (D)

To EDM:Travis Hamonic (D) & Jaroslav Halak (G)

This is a fan proposal from Copper and Blue and if you can’t see the plethora of wrong in it already, we may have a problem, Houston.

The whole proposal is banking on the Oilers picking up a goal-scoring right winger. If the Oilers made this trade, and Hull certainly does a fine job trying to sell you on it, they’d be behind the 8-ball again. Just like in the summer when they traded Hall. I like the Hall trade more than ever now and perhaps that deal might not be viewed as trading from a bad position today but it really did in the summer and this is not the kind of place you want to be trading from because the other GMs will eat you alive.

They also get Kris Russell, who, I’ve been among the largest critics of, though I have always maintained he was a legitimate NHL Dman. Russell’s inclusion is a short-term plug for the hole left by the loss of Hamonic.

It’s not surprising to see Hull include Russell in such a proposal, his allegiance to Matt Henderson does nothing to help. But with that said, swapping Russell for Hamonic would be an upgrade for the Oilers and I’ve advocated for Halak being the Oilers backup before. Of course, my proposal was that the Oilers trade Pouliot for him… Not sure if that is any better than the above.

Is Travis Hamonic not a less skilled version of Adam Larsson though? I wanted to say grittier but Larsson has shown us this year that he’s no shrinking violet and he’s been consistently healthy (knock on wood). He also cost the team Taylor Hall. #ThePriceYouHaveToPay

Bottom line is, Hull makes a semi-compelling argument but the Oilers defense is performing fine, in fact, better than fine. According to NHL.com, the Oilers are 10th in the NHL in goals against. Last season the Oilers finished 27th…

So adding anything more than a Shattenkirk-type to aid the PP is redundant. Taking away from the RW with the “hopes” of adding to it is pie in the sky thinking. Are the Islanders in a position to be removing such a strong part of their defense in return for offense?

So adding anything more than a Shattenkirk-type to aid the PP is redundant. Taking away from the RW with the “hopes” of adding to it is pie in the sky thinking. Are the Islanders in a position to be removing such a strong part of their defense in return for offense?

I’d love to add Travis Hamonic and Jaro Halak to the team but in my opinion, take it for what you will, it doesn’t work without both teams making other moves first and that’s the kicker. It’s hard enough to make a trade in the NHL today but to have not just one team but two teams move multiple pieces around so they can make this one deal, it simply doesn’t fly.  I’d argue that the Islanders would rather add a player like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins anyhow and then restructure the roster to fit around a 1-2 Tavares/RNH punch.

What do you think? Let us know in the comments below!

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The Case *For* Kris Russell

There has been a lot of noise made in the last couple days in the Oilogosphere about Kris Russell and how he’s literally the worst hockey player to ever hockey. Many of the advanced stats purveyors just have a field day when it comes to Russell and his (real or perceived) deficiencies, mostly centering around his basement-dweller numbers in categories like Corsi- and Fenwick-For. They really, truly fail to understand what professional hockey general managers see in the guy. The fact that his on-ice shooting percentage and save percentage is historically through-the-roof and currently 2nd amongst Oilers d-men (along with his PDO, too), are often brushed aside as “luck” or “flukey.”

Boy oh boy, isn’t there a word for selectively applying the statistics that help reinforce your preconceived notions and support your argument, while simultaneously ignoring or underplaying the ones that work against you?

From what I can tell, from watching almost every one of the Oilers’ 25 games so far this season, Kris Russell is an enigma that defies conventional stat-tracking. Watching him, seeing his play, I just cannot understand how this guy keeps getting such shade thrown on him by the pundits. He’s like the hockey player equivalent of that kid in your high school class who shows up looking sloppy and unkempt and gets sneered about by his teachers who don’t expect anything from him, but keeps getting good marks on his tests and constantly outperforms his perceived shortcomings. The things that Russell does well aren’t very easy to measure in Corsi derivatives, and the things he isn’t strong at are hyper-inflated by those very same metrics.

But the sheer arrogance of some of these writers who, I fear, legitimately feel their armchair analysis is superior to that of a Stanley Cup winning general manager and the teams and teams of people he surrounds himself with is astounding. In fact, Chiarelli himself noted when questioned about his initial pickup of Russell that they knew all about the reviews and numbers on him. And according to the internal, unconventional statistics the Oilers have access to (read: non-Corsi-derivative), Russell is currently sitting 2nd in the NHL amongst all defenders in clean offensive and neutral zone entries. And in the pressure system the Oilers employ, this type of skillset is immeasurably valuable.

You know how you can see how valuable it is? By watching Russell play hockey for the Edmonton Oilers. By seeing how he gels with Sekera, and how relatively smoothly and quickly he’s picked up playing on his off-side. (A feat many of the naysayers are unwilling to acknowledge the difficulty of.) Perhaps listening to Sekera himself –who praised Russell from Day 1 saying how “easy” he makes his life — would be another good place to start. Maybe acknowledging the fact that, while yes, an NHL-high number of blocked shots might indicate a propensity for having a history of being stuck in the defensive zone too long, it’s also an indicator of a warrior mentality – someone who is routinely willing to sacrifice his body as a last-ditch effort to stop a scoring opportunity and according to Woodguy, blocked shots cut down on dangerous fenwick. It’s also just simply a fact that shots against are going to happen, and when they do, it sure must be nice for the rest of the Oilers knowing they have a guy who is absolutely going to jump in front of them and take the punishment they entail. It must be nice finally having a couple veteran defenders on our second pairing with very recent playoff experience who can chew up minutes and help guide the next generation in their development. It must be nice having a quick-skating D-man who stays poised in PK situations and never really looks flustered or panicked.

Listen, I was as anti-Russell as the next guy when we first signed him. I saw all the stats and heard all the doomsday predictions that came along with them. And I’m a big fan of fancystats! I use them poorly and with an air of superiority all the time! But here are the objective, observable facts: we’re an above-.500 hockey team that is pretty seriously in the playoff conversation at the quarter-mark of the season, which has been so obviously out of the question by this time during the Decade of Darkness(TM), it’s not something we should understate the importance of. If you don’t think Russell can be said to be partially responsible for that, you haven’t been paying attention. You haven’t been watching him play. If we sign him for another 3 or 4 years at some value <$4.5M/per, I take that deal every day, and I think Peter Chiarelli does, too. And he’s smarter than us and gets paid far more handsomely than us to make that call.

Come fight me on Twitter @sife

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The York Report: November Edition

We’re just over a quarter way through the junior hockey season, and the tiers of prospects are sorting themselves out. With Nolan Patrick and Timothy Liljegren suffering injuries early on this year, I couldn’t justify swapping Liljegren with Patrick or Vilardi simply because it wouldn’t make sense. I do think Vilardi begins his push for the top spot and will likely end up going there when it’s all said and done, but we’ll see how things play out. Outside of the top three, Nico Hischier has been dominant and is currently tied for second in QMJHL scoring with 34 points. Callan Foote isn’t necessarily falling, but it’s pretty clear he’s not the guy to puch for a top five spot unless he has a great end to the season. Owen Tippett has been scoring at a very good pace, recording 16 goals in only 19 games. Tippett isn’t the only Steelhead impressing early as Nicolas Hague has been a strong producer from the back end, and at 6’6 he could be a big riser by draft day.

 

Tier One

1. Timothy Liljegren (RD) – Rogle BK (SHL)
2. Nolan Patrick (C) – Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)
3. Gabe Vilardi (C) – Windsor Spitfires (OHL)

Tier Two

4. Casey Mittelstadt (C) – Green Bay Gamblers (USHL)
5. Owen Tippett (RW) – Mississauga Steelheads (OHL)
6. Max Comtois (C/LW) – Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL)
7. Kristian Vesalainen (LW) – Frolunda HC (SHL)
8. Kailer Yamamoto (LW/C) – Spokane Chiefs (WHL)
9. Nic Hague (LD) – Mississauga Steelheads (OHL)
10. Eeli Tolvanen (LW) – Sioux City Musketeers (USHL)
11. Klim Kostin (RW) – Dynamo Balashikha (VHL)

Tier Three

12. Lias Andersson (LW/C) – HV71 (SHL)
13. Michael Rasmussen (C) – Tri City Americans (WHL)
14. Callan Foote (RD) – Kelowna Rockets (WHL)
15. Elias Pettersson (C) – Timra IK (Allsvenskan)
16. Ryan Poehling (C) St. Cloud St. University (NCAA)
17. Nico Hischier (RW) – Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL)

Tier Four

18. Nikita Popugayev (RW) – Moose Jaw Warriors (WHL)
19. Martin Necas (LW) – HC Kometa Brno (Czech)
20. Cale Makar (RD) – Brooks Bandits (AJHL)
21. Shane Bowers (C) – Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL)
22. Scott Reedy (C) – U.S. National U18 Team (USDP)
23. Urho Vaakanainen (LD) – JYP (Liiga)

Tier Five

24. Jake Oettinger (G) – Boston University (NCAA)
25. Luke Martin (RD) – University of Michigan (NCAA)
26. Erik Brannstrom (LD) – HV71 (SHL)
27. Sasha Chmelevski (C) – Ottawa 67’s (OHL)
28. Marcus Davidsson (C) – Djurgardens IF (SHL)
29. Matthew Strome (LW) – Hamilton Bulldogs (OHL)
30. Jesper Boqvist (RW) – Brynas IF (SHL)
31. Samuel Bucek (LW) – Shawinigan Cateractes (QMJHL)

 

Notes

 

Philipp Grubauer

 

Since being drafted in 2010, Philipp Grubauer has been one of the more consistent young goalies in both the NHL and AHL. Through 45 career NHL games, Grubauer has yet to finish below a .915 save percentage. The majority of Grubauer’s professional time has been spent in Hershey, where he played 105 games and recorded a .919 save percentage throughout his AHL career. Due to the fact Brayden Holtby won’t be giving up the crease anytime soon, it’s possible we see Grubauer on the move to Las Vegas during the expansion draft as the Caps will be unable to protect his rights.

 

Nikita Soshnikov
Getting a scouts attention is one thing, but being able to hold that attention throughout the course of a 60 minute game is something else entirely. Nikita Soshnikov is one of those rare cases. Perhaps I saw him on a good night, but the consistent intensity he brought on a shift to shift basis is something that few players are able to do, and is something that all aspiring hockey players should look to add to their arsenal. The 23 year old winger plays a very quick* game, and given the speed and puck skills he possesses, Id bet he becomes a 40-50 point player in the very near future. Soshnikov currently sits with one goal and one assist through five NHL games.

Quick* Game: The term can be interpreted differently, so when I say a player plays a “quick game” what I’m describing is a combination of foot speed, intensity, and quick hands. Patrick Kane and Joe Pavelski are great examples of what it means to possess a quick game or quick style.
Brayden Gorda

The Edmonton Oil King blue liner recently fell out of our top 30 rankings, however after a fairly strong start in November, you will likely see him back next month. We had high expectations for Brayden heading into the season after a strong outing at the U18 camp this summer, however he struggled in nearly every aspect of the game through the first quarter of the schedule. Though he still has much to work on, Gorda has been better in November, showing the promise we saw towards the end of last season and into the summer. What I didn’t like about his game when he was struggling was the lack of intensity and awareness he showed, especially in the defensive zone. He also seemed timid at times, opting to make difficult passes over rushing the puck, something he can do very well.

Jake Virtanen

 

After completing two games in Utica, Jake Virtanen still sits with only one point in 12 games this season. He was rushed to the NHL far too early, and should have been left in the WHL during the 2015/16 season. Jake Virtanen is not a “bust”, rather a victim of poor management, something that may hurt him in the long run. Virtanen brings a lot to the table including speed, size, and an innate offensive IQ, and if I were to put some money on the line I would bet he becomes an effective top six forward down the line. Due to his perceived declining value, I believe Jake Virtanen would provide excellent value to any team willing to trade a first round pick plus for his services if the opportunity came up. We’ve seen stranger things happen in Vancouver.

 

Leafs Trio

 

The Leafs top three scorers are under 20 years old and it seems as though the rebuild will be over within the next two years. It’s not just that they’re putting up points, but they’re putting up dominant shifts against strong competition. With the trio leading the way offensively (which is unbelievable), as well as Morgan Rielly on the back end and Freddy Andersen between the pipes, the Leafs have a strong base which they will continue to build off of. Heading into the draft the team should have their eyes set on Timothy Liljegren as they have been unable to bring in a top flight right handed defenceman, and as we’ve seen in Edmonton that position is extremely valuable. They’re a fun team to follow simply because they built this squad from scratch and it will be exciting to see where they are five years down the road.

 

WHL Scoring

 

I said Sam Steel would break out offensively this year and he’s done just that. Steel currently leads the WHL with 16 goals and 18 assists through only 15 games. Anaheim got an excellent player and really it’s not a surprise if you’ve ever had the chance to watch him play. Behind Sam sits four draft eligible prospects in Mason Shaw, Cody Glass, Kailer Yamamoto, and Nikita Popugayev, with draft eligibles Michael Rasmussen and Skyler McKenzie in the eight and nine spot, making it six draft eligibles in the top ten. The most impressive point producer within the group of six is Cody Glass, who after what I believed was a rough outing at the U18 camp, bounced back in a major way. The goal scoring ability of Glass has really helped Skyler McKenzie in terms of draft stock as the two have been a dynamic tandem for the Winterhawks. Also impressing early on in the WHL season is Regina’s import draft pick and Sens prospect Filip Ahl who currently has 24 points in 17 games. Oil Kings defenceman Aaron Irving leads the Kings in scoring with 23 points and may very well be a player who is moved near the deadline for picks, and may end up signing an ELC like Macoy Erkamps did last season.

 

Ramblings

 

Carolina is an interesting team to follow. They always seem to stay competitive even if their team on paper looks like a team contending for the first overall pick. They have a strong defensive group coming up, and the Aho/Teravainen duo may carry them far in the future.

Tanner Kaspick (STL) and Michael Spacek (WPG) are two of the best players in the WHL and fall in the category of underrated prospects. Both have a future in the NHL, however I think it’s Kaspick who has the longer career.

 

Thanks for reading. If you have any inquiries please email me at york.brennen@gmail.com

Post-Game Report: Oilers vs Calgary (10/12/2016)

Game result: Oilers 7-4 Calgary

Apparently it was “80s Night” over at Rogers Place for our first ever NHL game at the new barn. What a racket! 11 goals! What era even is this? So there were a whole lot of things to like about this game, and some head-scratchers. Let’s go through them in point-form because it’s too late to worry about complete sentences:

Things that were awesome:
– Chiefly, Captain Connor showing up for 2G-1A-3P in his first game of the year is a pretty damn good look at what’s to come for his sophomore season. CANNOT wait to see it unfold
– Maroon getting the first goal in Rogers Place was really cool. He was so stoked on it. Love this guy
– Kris Russell was really good. Guys. Can someone direct me to the nearest bakery serving humble pie? I was shitting on this guy as much as the rest of them because of how awful he is from a fancystats point of view, but he really shone tonight with 2 assists and several solid defensive plays that directly saved very likely Calgary goals. (In case you weren’t confused enough yet, his all-situations Corsi For on the night was 41.67%, and 5v5 was 48.28%. Apparently he is cursed on paper.)
– Larsson looked pretty good, too. Poised. Doesn’t panic. Klef needs to settle in a bit still, I think, but when he does, these two will be mint together
– Here are some more misleading stats since we’re on it: Larsson had a 34.38% all-situations Corsi For on the night, but could you tell by watching? I sure couldn’t. Could’ve been because he played 47% of his TOI against the Gaudreau/Monahan line, as per WheatNOil on Twitter (https://t.co/GqjIhEuD8r). He also started 75% of his shifts in the defensive zone. Leaning on him heavy already, I like it
– Poolparty got his 1st NHL goal on a beauty snipe under Elliott’s wide-open right arm. That’s nice. :] He also lead the team with a ridiculous 76.19% Corsi For rating in all situations, which came back down to earth a little bit at 5v5 with 58.33%, but still really good for the rookie’s first game in the bigs
– Brandon Davidson single-handedly saved, at least from what I saw, 3 sure Calgary goals. Some went off a well-positioned skate, some off his stick, some from getting his body in the way of a player in front of the net. BDavey is just so good and so solid, and that leads me into the other part of the night…

Things that sucked a little:

– So Tkachuk Jr is kind of a shithead, hey? He straight up slew-footed BDavey and he never returned for the 3rd. Still awaiting word on his condition/timeline for return. Fingers crossed it was precautionary. This kid just has no luck
– The Oilers allowed two pretty sloppy short-handed goals there in the 2nd, in what was just a classic #HereComeTheOilers 2nd period. I’d like to know the statistical metric that describes how we’re just so bad in the middle of games when we can start and end so strong
– Talbot was not the sharpest. He did stop 37 shots, but let 4 in for a .902 SV% in his first start of 2016-17. I mean, it’s no Brian Elliott .778 SV%, but we know he can be better. I chalk this up mostly to opening night/new building/don’t screw up this game of all game jitters
– Lucic played just okay. He sure made his presence felt early on when the Calgary goon squad figured they could throw McDavid around without repercussion, so that was good of him. But he gave up a really bad 2-on-1 opportunity and actually accidentally knocked one of those Calgary shorties in. So it’s just a matter of finesse at this point for him, I think. I hope.

Anyway. Numbers and analysis aside, we won 7-4 and start the year on a good note, and almost as importantly, Calgary starts the year on a lame note and that feels just as good if I’m honest.

Deep In The (Oil)Well

We were having a discussion the other day in the BLH chat group, analyzing the sorry performance our boys put in against the Jets the other night and trying to figure out what it might mean come the start of the regular season. Yes, I know it’s preseason. We all know it’s preseason. But preseason is a great time to sit back see how the guys developed over the summer, evaluate line combos, and especially to see who amongst the fresh blood is really busting their ass every shift to make the show come October 14th.

We’re seeing that pretty consistently out of Caggiula, which a certain BLH writer may or may not have predicted back in July… I’m also seeing that fight in Versteeg; I think he’ll end up with a contract for at least a season, and I hope he can infuse some of his multiple-Stanley-Cup-winning magic vibes into this squad. Looch is still big and slow but he’ll get there. Even if he can’t quite keep up with McDavid yet and realize just how little work he actually has to do to rack up points just being on the ice with Him, he’ll get there, and his presence just makes me feel better knowing that the potential goons on opposing teams this season will absolutely be thinking twice before trying anything funny. Puljujarvi is looking okay, he certainly killed it in the junior games a couple weeks ago, but I don’t think his North American hockey IQ (or stamina) is quite there just yet, and he could definitely benefit from a few months at least in the A.

But I mean, other than that, it’s kind of business as usual with these guys, isn’t it? Kind of listless, a little soft, definitely on the razor’s edge of being a complete disaster dumpster fire of a season again should one of our big guys go down long-term, no? I can’t even begin to imagine what losing someone early in the season like Klef, or Ebs, or RNH, or god forbid, He Whose Collarbone Shall Not Be Named would do to this team. Which really brings us to the heart of the issue facing this Oilers team right now: Depth.

#prayforklefsfoot

This Oilers team, with the amount of seriously amazing skill it has up front, absolutely does not have the depth to be a serious contender this season if everyone isn’t running at 100% healthy for the vast majority of the season. Think about it this way: if Klef goes down, our top LHD is back to being Andre Sekera. If Larsson goes down, our top RHD is back to being Mark Fayne. (Now, I’d like to think BDavey could pick up that slack and run with it like he had to last season, but still, the point stands.) If Connor or Nuge or Leon suffers an injury, where are the classic “depth guys” to step in and at least attempt to fill that huge void? In Bakersfield? Doubtful. You know where they are? In Chicago, or Pittsburgh, or Los Angeles, even Florida and Nashville now to an extent. They’re being drafted and traded for and developed specifically by these teams to fill key depth roles with the understanding that top-12 forwards and top-6 defencemen occasionally need to be pushed into non-ideal minutes and situations. Do you picture Anton Lander or Griffin Reinhart or Iiro Pakarinen in your mind when you think of those situations? Because that’s what we’ve got.

You know who this team reminds me of the last few years? The late-90s-to-mid-2000s Blackhawks, just before they got Toews in 2006 and Kane in 2007. Train wrecks, basically. But remember, even when they got Captain Serious and Kaner, it still took them a couple years to become a serious playoff team. How did they do this? Why has Chicago won 3 of the last 7 Stanley Cups? Well it could be because they have two or three star players carrying the team. That would be an easy assumption to make; it’s been the case for some Stanley Cup winning teams throughout the years. Hell, it’s been the modus operandi of the Edmonton Oilers for the last decade. Draft a couple studs and screw the rest of the lineup, people come for the stars, and they’re who will get us to the cup. Right?

Except that’s not how the NHL works anymore. The Blackhawks have won 3 cups in 7 years because Niklas Hjalmarsson is a third pairing defender on that team. They have or have had the Andrew Ladds, the Marian Hossas, the Kris Versteegs, the Brandon Saads, and the Andrew Shaws to bolster their lineups and step up to fill the holes when need be. They aren’t the guys necessarily putting up 65+ point seasons ever year, but they are solid and reliable and tough, and teams stocked up in those particular skill departments are the teams who consistently string together winning seasons and ultimately end up wining championships.

As indescribably amazing as Connor McDavid is, he can’t win us a Stanley Cup on his own. As defensively sound as Adam Larsson is, he isn’t going to swing our goal differential into the positives on his own. As big and strong as Milan Lucic is, he isn’t going to be able to fight off the opposition on his own without the support of the third- and fourth-liners who we need to bring in to make this a playoff team for years to come. If we make the playoffs this season, suffice it to say that I will be surprised. We’re flush with skill guys, now we need to focus on the d-word. The Edmonton Oilers need to start trading for and drafting and developing depth players, and fast, before the p-word starts entering our vernacular in a serious way.

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