I received a message from one of my sources a couple days ago telling me that the Oilers will be going with a different head coach and GM in 2018/19. Whatever power struggle is going on between McLellan and Chiarelli has come to a head and Nicholson/Gretzky have had enough.
So those of you that have criticized the Oilers in the past for not doing an “exhaustive search” can rest easy because they’ve been talking to potential candidates for over a month now.
Now you can take that info to the bank or you can laugh it off. No skin off my back. I just share what I’ve been passed along BUT keep in mind anything can happen between now and this summer including the Oilers going on a ridiculous run that would save the jobs of everyone involved.
First off, I’m not part of the fanbase who believe the Oilers should let either the coach or the GM go but I do think it’s inevitable that one of them is axed this summer.
If I had to pick a reason though for each of Chiarelli and McLellan to be let go, they’d be the following:
Chiarelli – His inability to make changes to the coaching staff this season has been staggering. I know he’s loyal to his head coaches but the special teams this season has murdered the Oilers in the standings. You can argue all you want about leaving the team shorthanded but the Oilers have beat really good teams this year with this roster.
McLellan: We come back to special teams. They’ve been atrocious. His selective stubbornness with roster selections and line combos baffles me to this day. If the reports of his staff not changing anything up at the practices are true, then he’s lost the plot and doesn’t have the creativity to work with this group.
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With that said, who do you think would make a good coach for the Oilers and likewise, who’d be a hire at the GM’s position that you’d support. Here are a few candidates I thought of:
Head Coach: Dave Tippet, Darryl Sutter, Joel Quenneville, Ken Hitchcock, Derek Laxdal, Rocky Thompson, Sheldon Keefe, and Todd Nelson.
Tippet did wonders with not very much in Arizona for many years. Sutter turned the Kings into Cup contenders AND winners but is his style of hockey conducive to winning in today’s NHL? I don’t think you can argue with the credentials that multiple Stanley Cup-winning coach Joel Quenneville would bring to the table IF Chicago decides to move in a different direction next season.
OR should the Oilers go shopping in the AHL? Laxdal (Former Edmonton Oil Kings head coach who won 2 WHL championships with the Oilers current director of player personnel, Bob Greene) and Keefe’s teams are at the top of their divisions in the AHL. Rocky Thompson seems like the new Dallas Eakins, and Todd Nelson had a marginally successful experience when he worked in the Oilers’ organization previously.
Would hiring a Laxdal, Thompson, or Nelson be too nepotistic though?
Or maybe Paul Coffey is the guy coming into run the show? That’s what Glenn Healy said recently…
GM: Julien Brisbois, Paul Fenton, Dean Lombardi, Bill Guerin, Ken Holland, Keith Gretzky
Brisbois is surely being courted by the Montreal Canadiens and Fenton will be GM-ing with one of the teams who haven’t offered their current GM a new deal for next season. Please forgive me but I can’t seem to find the current GMs that are going into next season without a contract though. I want to say Vancouver and Detroit are two of them.
I’ve tossed Dean Lombardi’s name out there on Twitter but it seems a lot of people would be against that because of the loyalty-contracts he handed out to guys like Mike Richards and Marian Gaborik. He’s a champ though but would the Oilers just be following the same recipe used to hire the current regime if they hired Lombardi and Sutter?
Another name that has been tossed out is Bill Guerin but he’s a former Oiler… So maybe cross his name off of the list despite him running the show for Pittsburgh’s farm team which is currently in 2nd place in its division and Guerin actually being considered for the GM’s position in Buffalo. He’s actually got a very well known reputation for being an extremely hard worker and for having an outstanding eye for talent. But he’s an old Oiler, so no thanks, right?
Then there’s Ken Holland. He hasn’t had much to write home about in recent years but he IS the guy that built those great Detroit Red Wings teams in the late 90s and well into the 2000s. Lots of experience and connections with Holland. He DID train Steve Yzerman afterall…
It’s such a hard decision, right?
I’m not sure if the next coach should be one that coddles the players though. I wouldn’t mind one that placed an emphasis on defense either. I reckon Ken Hitchcock could walk in and turn these boys around in record time though.
As for GM, I like either Ken Holland or Bill Guerin. I believe a Holland/Hitchcock duo would work well together given their history with Hockey Canada. OR perhaps a Guerin/Quenneville duo?
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**This is a guest post from a very good friend of the blog, Sean Patrick Ryan. You might know him as @theoilknight! He’s one of the more intelligent fellas I’ve come across on the twittersphere and I really dig his message! Take a gander at his latest post here and then head on over to his blog to check out some more. He’s an Edmonton Oilers/London Knights fan from Ontario and knows the OHL pretty intimately, so you’ll get a good idea for some of the Oilers’ prospects playing in that region by reading his material!
Enjoy! – BLH**
Whether it’s midseason or at the end of the year, it is now inevitable that Todd McLellan will be fired as coach of the Oilers. I HATE that we got to this point because I have always supported TMac and given him the benefit of the doubt on so many occasions but the reality is his team has either tuned him out or are just not responding well enough to turn this around. I still put the majority of blame on the players for this lousy season. Overconfidence, poor execution, piss poor efforts and just an unwillingness to bear down and do the little things consistently enough to win games are all on the players. However, I don’t care what sport you are in if the players continually don’t show up for the coach…..it’s over. Time for a change.
Todd McLellan’s stubbornness and unwillingness to adapt are the main reasons for his downfall. There are many questions fans and media alike have for the coach as to why he didn’t do certain things sooner. Would this season have a different outcome if some of these were addressed earlier? Perhaps. David Staples from the Edmonton Journal breaks them down nicely here
Now there are many on social media who will attack GM Peter Chiarelli for hiring him or for giving him this roster to begin with. Well, many of these people have hated the GM from the beginning so it’s no surprise they are looking to take advantage of the situation by killing two birds with one stone. The reality is, this is still a very talented roster with excellent depth in the organization thanks to some great drafts (especially on D) and good College FA signings. The GM doesn’t control the PK at home (which has been historically bad), can’t make the coach switch up the same 5 guys on the PP and can’t MAKE the players give 100% effort every night. “Well he didn’t fill the holes properly it’s his fault they’re not very good!” some people say. Fair argument, however, I would counter with:
“If you bring in a different coaching staff do you think this team would have better results?”
If the answer is yes, (it should be IMO) then the decision is simple. The job of the coach is to make the MOST out of what he has and you could argue McLellan is getting the LEAST. Look at other teams around the league like Vegas & Colorado. Do they have more talent on paper than the Oilers? No chance. Even if you thought they weren’t as good as their record last year, surely you don’t think they are as bad as they are this year. They’re somewhere in between. Which means the staff is underachieving. The inability to fix the worst PK at home in the history of the league since they started tracking it (how is that even possible?) after 40 games should be reason enough to fire at least the assistants. Knowing TMac though he is in this together with his assistants who he brought with him from San Jose originally. Plus, he has taken over the units in practice in an attempt to fix it which clearly hasn’t made any significant difference so it’s all on him. He’s steering the sinking ship.
The inability to properly motivate this team to show up consistently in afternoon games is just another example in a long list of failures from this staff this year. I know traditionally this team has never been good in day games but that’s no excuse when you are supposedly playing desperation hockey. The point is, while everyone is to blame for this mess of a season you can’t fire an entire roster and you certainly shouldn’t be looking to fire a General Manager until you see how a different coach handles this talented group. If this team gave the kind of effort Vegas does every night they would be leading their division not bringing up the rear. So the coach will likely take the fall and bail out the players for the time being with the heat then being shifted to the GM who will have a critical decision on hiring the right man to “right the ship”.
GM Peter Chiarelli has turned around a franchise that was pitiful before he got there and rebuilt the depth throughout the organization in a relatively short period of time. The team has some excellent prospects on the horizon ready to make an impact the next few years thanks to three good drafts. However, he has made some controversial trades which are great if he gets the necessary results (which he did get last year) but will backfire on him if his team underachieves (this year). He has had a vision and plan all along and while it got accelerated last season I can’t imagine he envisioned there would be this kind of drop off this year. So he has no choice but to let his coach go and it is imperative he finds the right replacement to maximize the talents of it’s core players and he tailors the roster again if he has to in order to ease that transition and salvage his own job. That being said, I expect an interim coach to take over soon either internally or externally then in the offseason Mr. Chiarelli will be tasked with his biggest decision (and final chance) of finding the best coach possible. Who could that man be? While it’s likely way too early to determine candidates and we may be getting way ahead of ourselves I will throw one name out there that my buddy @jerschur first brought up:
Former Alberta Golden Bear – Kris Knoblauch
Terry Wilson / OHL Images
Kris Knoblauch was Connor McDavid’s OHL coach in Erie and is currently an assistant with the Philadelphia Flyers. He took over for Robbie Ftorek in Erie halfway thru 2012. Following that season, his record as coach in his 4 full seasons in Erie was 204-58-10 as he turned Erie into a powerhouse, making at least the 3rd round of the playoffs every year while winning the OHL Championship in 2016-17 earning a trip to the Memorial Cup. Prior to that, he coached the Kootenay Ice of the WHL to a 82-47-15 record in two seasons winning the WHL Championship in 2010-11 while also earning a bid to the Memorial Cup. ***
He is widely renowned as a highly motivating coach who loves his teams to play fast, smart hockey and gets the most out of his players. An excellent read here on Broadstreethockey.com:
Whether or not Knoblauch would even be available this summer is not entirely clear. If Philadelphia continues to struggle it is possible they may also consider a coaching change midseason and Knoblauch takes over as their head coach. However, it is also possible that if come the summer he is still an assistant he should be on a short list of potential candidates to replace the departed McLellan. He would likely be extremely interested too due to his familiarity with the area and familiarity with the Captain of the Oilers. His fast paced style would likely be a welcome addition to a team desperate to maximize it’s abilities – something KK is very adept at unlocking. The roster would surely require some tinkering if he indeed was hired (replacing UFA’s like Maroon with young faster players) but on paper it seems to be a match made in heaven. The question is……will Chiarelli think so?
To comment please do so via Twitter @TheOilKnight
***Knoblauch’s playing & coaching stats referenced can be found here: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=28832
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The overwhelming theme for the Oilers this season has been to ride it out, play their way out of these funks they’ve been engaged in since the beginning of the year and now it seems that all hopes for the playoffs have been lost. Mine are still intact but I’m less a realist and more an optimist. I feel like realism is the fastest way to mediocrity when it comes to being a fan.
After back-to-back afternoon disasters this weekend, things got VERY quiet around the Oilers. I got word that there was a meeting taking place to determine the future direction of the franchise and who’d be moving forth, Todd McLellan or Peter Chiarelli… I was getting quite worried because I’ve felt that removing either would be more detrimental to the future of the team than helpful, a feeling I’ve had since this season’s debacle began.
But that being said, Peter Chiarelli came out of hiding after the Chicago game and did a quick hit with Mark Spector to tell us he’s not firing the coach. That my friends is what is called the “vote of confidence” and it’s the last thing you want if you’re the coach because it means you’re on thin ice and you’d better get your act together right quick.
The other thing that happens IF the coach is fired is that it uses up that stay out of jail card for the GM and if the team still fails to turn things around, he gets his pink slip as well.
Peter Chiarelli was also on Oilers Now this morning and here are some quotes from his interview with Bob Stauffer:
“The organization is currently in a period of evaluation but one of the things they won’t be doing at this time is making a coaching change. Chiarelli says he has full confidence in Todd McLellan.”
“We may not have been as good as we thought we were or that people thought we were. We did have performances in the playoffs that would indicate otherwise too.”
“It seems that when one area is fixed another becomes delinquent. It’s tough and we’re in a period of evaluation.”
“There’s nothing we could have done to change expectations but we’ve been trying to manage them. We haven’t done well enough.”
“I have full confidence in our coach. He’s in sync with us on the overall plan going forward.”
“There have been a number of examples where teams that have had those successes in their growth period don’t make it. It’s like a stock that is going up and down but still trending up.”
“We’re looking at a lot of different things but this is part of a grander plan. We’re not going to do anything rash, but I see what everyone else sees.”
“It’s important to keep the groundwork the way it is but, let me stress, that doesn’t mean that change won’t happen. But I believe in Todd and I believe what he stands for.”
That is a mouthful and it’s pretty bland. We don’t learn anything new and of course he wasn’t going to tell you something you wanted to hear. Peter Chiarelli is quite calculated in what he says, right? But he’s also quite blunt and straightforward. I like that. I also like that he’s willing to put his own neck on the chopping block and stick with the plan.
Chiarelli also did an interview with Ryan Rishaug that you can head over to tsn.ca to check out right now or I’ll probably have something up about it later today.
I do not believe that this team is as bad as the record tells us. It’s a young team and we all know that with young players the highs are stupid high and the lows are ridiculously low. We need patience there.
Nobody put the Stanley Cup expectations on the
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Oilers but the media, so that’s on them but the problem with that is those same young players have to deal with the consequences of said expectations.
Have we really missed the offense from Eberle and Hall? Well, when they are scoring at the pace that they are, it seems that way but if you look at the GF/GA from last year (10/04-01/09) to this year in the same timeframe, it looks like this:
2016/17: 118GF/110GA
2017/18: 117GF/132GA
How about powerplay goals against?
2016/17: 24
2017/18: 39
Fack! That’s brutal!
The Oilers powerplay opportunities have gone down from 132 to 118…
Special teams is a problem obviously but I do believe that even with a mediocre PP that the Oilers would be a playoff team IF the PK at home was the same on the road.
Now I’ve asked this question over and over and over and nobody can give me an answer.
HOW CAN CHIARELLI FIX THE HOME PENALTY KILL?
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The reason nobody can give me an answer to that specific question is because Chiarelli cannot fix it. He’s given Todd McLellan a roster that has a top 5 road penalty kill. How is it that those same players under the same coaches can have the worst home PK in NHL history and that be Chiarelli’s fault?
The players have to held accountable, as do the coaches, as does the GM, as does Nicholson and Gretzky and sacrifices will have to be made at some point, most likely being the special teams coaches.
Sure the stink of losing makes Bobby Nick look bad but word is he’s looking at other opportunities anyhow… But that’s just hearsay, whatever happens, he’s teflon and he shouldn’t be. He was the one that hired both Chiarelli and McLellan and if you believe that the GM and coach are underperforming, then you should be looking directly at Bob Nicholson. You don’t hear those cries, do you?
But if you can be a bit more patient, there are a lot of good things happening and the talent coming up. Peter Chiarelli’s draft history since joining the Oilers is looking great compared to what previous regimes drafted. He’s rebuilding this franchise from the bottom up but a lot of people, I feel, refuse to see that.
We’ve got Puljujarvi, McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse, Larsson, Klefbom, and RNH on the parent club already. There’s Yamamoto, Maksimov, Safin, Benson, Bear, Jones, Ellis, Samorukov, Rasanen, Lagesson, Skinner, Wells, etc. coming up through the junior ranks and the minors.
Good times are ahead! The added bonus to having some great prospects coming up is that they could be used to kick start the roster too!
WIN NOW OR ELSE!
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Just to add to the WIN NOW attitude, there’s a line of thought out there that the Oilers HAD to win during McDavid’s ELC years and I don’t buy that. Sure it would’ve made things easier because Chiarelli could’ve spread out the money a bit more but eventually he would’ve had to move those players that were on more expensive contracts. You could argue that he would’ve gotten better value from trading those players or you could argue that he would’ve been behind the 8-ball in the same manner that he was when he traded Hall and Eberle. Meaning he wouldn’t have had any leverage in the deals.
Not every generational talent’s career arcs in the same fashion. I think a lot of people look at Crosby’s and say that’s how it’s supposed to be done!
yr 1 – no playoffs
yr 2 – lose rd 1
yr 3 – lose finals (ELC expires)
yr 4 – Stanley Cup (New contract kicks in)
But what about players like Eric Lindros/Mario Lemieux?
yr 1 – no playoffs/no playoffs
yr 2 – no playoffs/no playoffs
yr 3 – lose rd 3/no playoffs
yr 4 – lose rd 2/no playoffs
yr 5 – lose finals/lose rd 2
yr 6 – lose rd 1/no playoffs
yr 7 – lose rd 1/Stanley Cup
yr 8 – lose rd 3/Stanley Cup
So basically what I’m saying is, things rarely go according to plan and if you’re unhappy about the direction of the Oilers right now, relax. It’s out of your control. This is entertainment and you have the most entertaining player to come along in a very long time playing (and under contract for the next 9 seasons) on YOUR TEAM!
Lastly, if you feel that you “deserve” something (playoffs or certain players) for being a faithful fan through the hard years, your heart is in the wrong place. That’s an entitled attitude and your compass needs recalibrating.
It’s been a while since I was left that emotionally frustrated by the Oilers but last night’s game versus the Winnipeg Jets had me near irate and I try my best not to let the team’s results control my emotions because it’s only entertainment, right?
I mean if we’re being honest, that was the first game in quite a while where Todd’s boys laid an egg. December was going oh so well until this latest skid and while I pride myself on being optimistic in the face of the ever-lingering pessimism that clouds this fanbase, I feel like I might be writing more draft dedicated articles soon.
THE COACHES’ FUTURE
There’s been a faction of the Oilers “supporters” that have been calling for McLellan’s head since the end of October and with every subsequent loss the Oilers are handed, I can relate with their angst. The usual response online is something to the effect of, “Haven’t the Oilers hired and fired enough coaches in the last ten years?”
The answer to that question is yes.
If we go back 10 years from today, the Oilers have had 7 separate head coaches.
Craig MacTavish
Pat Quinn
Tom Renney
Ralph Krueger
Dallas Eakins
Todd Nelson
Todd McLellan
From 1998 to 2008, the Chicago Blackhawks also had 7 different head coaches before finally settling on Joel Quenneville.
Dirk Graham
Lorne Molleken
Bob Pulford
Alpo Suhonen
Brian Sutter
Trent Yawney
Denis Savard
As a fan, you should be thankful, the Real Madrid football team went through 9 managers from 2003 to 2009. And that’s one of the most successful football (soccer) teams in history who’ve had some of the best players in the history of the beautiful game.
There’s a real possibility that the playing personnel and it’s coaches aren’t compatible. Maybe Todd McLellan and his staff are more appropriate for a team that isn’t driven by players so young. When he took over in San Jose, he had Thornton and Marleau right in their primes and a defense led by Rob Blake and Dan Boyle, an all-star goalie in Evgeni Nabakov, and the Sharks even added old cagey vets like Claude Lemieux and Jeremy Roenick to boot.
He does not have that in Edmonton at the moment.
The GM has basically two moves left to save his ass and that’s to make another trade in hopes that’ll jump start the team or to fire the coach and his staff but if he does fire the coach, his neck will be on the chopping block next. Usually, that’s the last card to be played before a GM is dismissed.
Now with that being said, the Oilers’ league-mandated week off is coming up and if a coaching change is going to be made in-season, that’s more likely when it’ll be. A pricey one might I add given that McLellan is one of the top paid coaches in the league.
My last thought on the coaches is that if they don’t have the answers to the special teams problems, something they’ve stated publicly, then who does? It is their job to come up with the solutions to the team’s problems and to inform the players, who then take that information and apply it on the ice. If the players aren’t doing that, then the coaches need to react appropriately. If the coaches reactions aren’t being taken seriously, then the GM has to take action be it by making a trade or by letting a coach go. If the GM is unwilling to do that, then… I think you get the point.
Are the players concerned enough about being traded to improve their play though? Are the coaches concerned enough about being fired to make wholesale changes?
SPECIAL TEAMS AKA THE PENALTY KILL
I’ve been taking a look at some of the goals scored vs. the Oilers PK in the last couple of weeks or so and I can’t find a constant error in their formation or tactics being used. What I do find are little brainfarts like over-committing, getting hung up on a teammate, dropping a stick, bad bounces, or not reading the ice properly that are costing the Oilers.
I was curious about the tactic the Oilers have been using on the kill, so I looked into it a bit more.
The Oilers, utilize something called the “Czech Press” on the PK. This tactic a more aggressive version of the “Triangle +1” or a “Wedge +1” and is described as thus:
The general concept of the Triangle +1 is that three penalty killers form a triangle shape down low, protecting the slot and net. The fourth penalty killer is the “plus-one,” focused on getting in shooting lanes, angling the play in certain directions, or pressuring the puck carrier. The key to understanding the Triangle +1 is knowing that the player functioning as the “plus-one” can shift mid-play, depending upon the location of the puck. If the play quickly transitions from left to right, the high forward can sag back into the triangle while the lower forward takes over the “plus-one” role.
Wedge +1
The same concepts of the Triangle +1 apply, but in the Czech Press, the “plus-one” forward is very aggressive. He actively attacks the high man at the blueline (usually a defenseman), and in the event of a pass to a forward on the half boards, he “presses” down on the new puck carrier to cut off space and time.(Source)
Czech Press
Here’s an example of what the Czech Press should look like if deployed properly,
According to the source from above, the Czech Press has it’s advantages and disadvantages,
The Czech Press, on the other hand, looks to actively force opposing power plays into mistakes. The result is more turnovers, but also more opportunities for dangerous chances, due to the chaotic play of the “plus-one” forward. Rapid puck movement has the aggressive forward constantly chasing, and can turn the formation into a “Triangle Plus-Nothing,” with three penalty killers in the slot just waiting to be eaten alive. (Source)
I think one of the things, apart from the possibilities discussed above, we’re witnessing this year with the Oilers is that teams are turning the extra man who chases the puck into the “nothing”. My understanding is that this formation when passive is used to combat the point shot and cross-seam passes. A team that doesn’t have the speed to use the Czech Press shouldn’t be using it in my opinion but maybe it’s more than that. One could argue it’s intelligence on the ice too because you can’t simply run around with your head cut off on the PK. The penalty kill is all about managing 2-on-1 scenarios, right?
Some players that are having good years on the PK according to some parameters set by Jon Willis (20 min TOI, GA/60, league avg=7 GA/60) on Twitter last night are:
Jujhar Khaira (36.1 TOI, 4.99 GA/60) – I believe that he’d be just as good as Pouliot on the PK if given the chance. He’s got good hands, a big body, AND he doesn’t take too many penalties.
Connor McDavid (47.9 TOI, 5.01 GA/60) – Of course he’s one of the best. He’s got the speed and agility to be used properly in the Czech Press PLUS he’s the smartest player in the game.
Brandon Davidson (33.3 TOI, 3.6 GA/60) – Matt Benning could use a night or two in the press box. He’s still young but he’s really hitting the sophomore slump this year and Davidson’s #s don’t lie here. Add to that Davy’s got a bit more experience and size on Benning.
Eric Gryba (29.43 TOI, 6.12 GA/60) – There’s not much to say about Grybs. He’s ineffective 5×5 and now he’s in the minors.
Other players that are hovering just over the league average GA/60 are Mark Letestu (8.79), Oscar Klefbom (8.98), and Iiro Pakarinen (8.85).
But the rest of the team are in double-digits. Drake Caggiula’s GA/60 on the PK is 17.81… Which is mad because he’s so fast and aggressive, right? You’d think that he’d fit right into this PK tactic. The worst dman is Matt Benning with 15.8 GA/60 on the PK…
If the Oilers don’t have the players who can effectively work within the penalty killing system, why use it? It reminds me of Dallas Eakins’ “swarm”. The coaches are trying to force it down the players’ throats and from what I’ve gathered, it doesn’t sound like the players are having anything of it anymore.
I think if you’ve noticed, that nearly every team that the Oilers get a PP versus uses the passive “triangle +1” because the Oilers are happy to pass it around the perimeter at their own pace. If the Oilers could move it around a lot quicker maybe by bringing the players on the wall a little higher to support the dman, they could open things up a bit better.
Another way to create scoring chances is… GO TO THE BLUE PAINT! Jesse Puljujarvi has scored but one from in the home plate if I recall correctly. I mean, I’m not a coach by trade but if the other team is parking the bus in front of the goalie, why not add some more chaos and throw three of your guys in front too and leave a 2-on-1 scenario for the remaining players. Then simply get the puck on the net for the players to battle over. I think an added bonus to those goal-mouth scrambles might be causing the other team to take more penalties due to the desperation of clearing the puck from so close to the net.
THE 2018 DRAFT
I suppose we’re going to have to start talking about it sooner or later… At this point, the Oilers are sitting pretty at 6th overall. Whether you’re the type to follow the draft or not, I’m sure you’ve heard who is going 1st overall, the Swedish Bobby Orr, Rasmus Dahlin. After Dahlin is a right-wing sniper who plays for Barrie in the OHL named Andrei Svechnikov.
Dahlin and Svechnikov will be going 1 and 2 at the draft, I have no doubt in my mind about that. But it’s from 3rd overall to 6th overall that it could get interesting. Right now I believe it’s a battle between a magical Czech forward named Filip Zadina and another Swedish Karlsson clone named Adam Boqvist for no.3. Matthew Tkachuk’s little brother Brady should go 5th and then the 2nd best skater in the draft, Quinn Hughes, a dman playing NCAA in Michigan should round it out.
We don’t know where the lottery balls will land come draft time but I’m not a huge fan of selecting a defender in the top 6 not named Rasmus Dahlin.
If the Oilers draft…
1st – Rasmus Dahlin (LD) – Swedish Orr
2nd – Andrei Svechnikov (RW) – Tarasenko V2
3rd – Filip Zadina (LW) – Very Barzal-like with his puck handling and shooting
4th – Brady Tkachuk (LW) – Better than his brother
5th – Adam Boqvist (RD) – Dazzling defender
6th – Oliver Wahlstrom (RW) – Shoots the lights out
Should the Oilers lose out in the lottery and be forced to move down, I think trading down to gather assets would be a good plan as the cluster from 7th overall to about 14th or 15th look to be a safe area for the Oilers to trade down to and still get a good player.
But if you’re wondering what some of those players look like, look no further than our 2018 November Top Ten Rankings over at the Beer League Heroes Youtube Channel!
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Today I read a post from Alex Thomas from The Oilers Rig and I was mildly aggravated by what I read and thus the reason for this post today. Before I get into it though I want to preface the piece by saying that I really like Alex and respect his work. I’ve worked with him in the past and overall he’s a good lad.
I simply don’t agree with his take this morning and I’d like to reply. So basically what you’re going to read today is some of Thomas’ takes from his blog and my reply to them. Nothing more and nothing less really. I’ll probably ruffle a few feathers but it comes with the territory. I’m telling you this now so you have the opportunity to bail before you go down the rabbit hole that is Oilers fandom because this is a long one folks.
WHY CHIARELLI WAS FIRED
Like so many before him and so many in the future, Chiarelli got stubborn and failed to adjust with the sport. No longer is the NHL about building a big and tough team like it was even five years ago. Now, the NHL is all about speed and skill.
Back in Chiarelli’s days with the Bruins, it really was about size and puck possession but let’s not forget that the Bruins missed the playoffs by a miniscule 3 pts in 2014/15 and in 2015/16 the Bruins tied Detroit for the last playoff spot in the East but lost out to the Red Wings due to ROW (reg. and OT wins) and in 2016/17 they made the playoffs again… They were never really out of it.
Chiarelli gaffed in a major way when he traded Tyler Seguin to the Dallas Stars in July of 2013. He began to get rid of the talented players on the Bruins in favor of heavier veteran players. The results? Boston missed the playoffs in Chiarelli’s final season at the helm and are still recovering three years later, desperately trying to add legit talent in any way they can.
Still recovering… HA! Recovering from what exactly? Being an annual playoff contender maybe. See, this is the rhetoric I’m talking about. Are the Bruins desperately trying to add legit talent right now? The Bruins are 1 win out of a playoff spot in their division. If they’re so desperate to add “legit” talent, it’s not because Peter Chiarelli left them a shit team, it’s because Brad Marchand and David Krejci can’t stay healthy and that Zdeno Chara is 40 years old or because Tuukka Rask is having a crap season so far (sound familiar?). And even with all of that, they’re still in the playoff picture…
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ON THE OILERS
Two years later, the Oilers are once again in the basement of the NHL and are devoid of talent. Listen to people in other markets, they all agree that the Oilers don’t have enough talent and aren’t built to win in today’s NHL. This is a slow club with only two legit skilled players in the top-six.
The Oilers don’t have enough talent? I scoff at such statements. They aren’t built to win in today’s NHL? Don’t make me laugh! A slow club with only TWO LEGIT SKILLED players in the top six? Get me some more of that swill!
Leon Draisait, Connor McDavid, Jesse Puljujarvi, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Anton Slepyshev, Drake Caggiula, Zack Kassian… These are all players with speed to burn baby! And for some reason, people forget that. But the usual retort is that it’s hockey IQ or speed isn’t just skating and to an extent, I can agree to that. Like in the first month of the year when the bottom-6 simply wasn’t producing but in November, that simply isn’t the case. One could even argue that the Oilers 4th line of Khaira-Letestu-Kassian has been their best one recently.
Chiarelli has committed the exact same mistakes in Edmonton that he made in Boston, and the Oilers are dangerously close to being in a desperate situation as an organization.
If making the Oilers a year-by-year playoff contender is what you consider a mistake, you’re being too hard on the guy. After 10 years of not making the playoffs, I’m sure there are real Oilers fans out there that would love for Edmonton to have a team that competes for the playoffs every year as simply being in the playoff picture is enough.
The Oilers were in a desperate situation before Chiarelli and McLellan were hired. 10 years out of the post-season is not a place where any Canadian NHL team should be. Jerseys were being tossed on the ice, billboards were being rented out to voice the fans displeasure at how the team was being run. What’s going on now is nothing compared to how it was.
Failure for either of those things to happen will result in a harsh reality: The Edmonton Oilers will waste Connor McDavid’s career and he will request a trade before the end of his eight-year mega contract.
Oh shhyit! Here we go! The Oilers are going to ruin Connor’s career and he’s going to request a trade out of Edmonton. Yeah because this is a common theme amongst superstar NHLers let alone generational talents… Sounds like Thomas has been spending some time listening to the ultras in Toronto. What a brutal taek!
Edmonton’s GM is stuck in 2011, thinking the game is still won with power forwards and ‘heavy hockey’. Unfortunately, it just doesn’t work that way anymore. The Pittsburgh Penguins have proven it each of the last two springs, and the Chicago Blackhawks many springs prior to that. This is a game won with speed and skill now.
Ya know it’s funny that these are the kinds of comments that are being made while the Oilers are losing and yeah, there was a certain faction that covers hockey that “warned” (their word not mine) the Oilers could be victim to having too heavy a team. But where were they during the playoffs last year? Well, I’ll tell you. They were “warning” us of the one-off season that the Oilers were having.
I’d like to know what happened to the Penguins and Blackhawks speed and skill this year? I mean if it’s soooooo important, why are they not leading their divisions since that’s the key to success in today’s NHL?
The Edmonton Oilers had ample skill, but Peter Chiarelli traded it in to be the next edition of the 2011 Boston Bruins, a team that only won because Tim Thomas had the spring of a lifetime, might I add. Now Edmonton is dealing with the after effects of Chiarelli’s decision making and plan.
It is very true, the Oilers had a shit-ton of skill and with all of that skill they found a way to finish 2nd last in the league, not dead last. If I’m not mistaken, how many Stanley Cup finalists, letalone Cup winners, get to that point without riding a hot goalie?
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This is a general manager that traded in Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle for Adam Larsson and Ryan Strome. A GM that acquired a defender in Griffin Reinhart that who is currently sitting on the AHL roster of AN EXPANSION TEAM, passed on Matt Barzal and Alex DeBrincat because of their size, dumped Benoit Pouliot because of one bad season and invested heavily in Milan Lucic and Kris Russell like it was 2009 all over again.
Yup, the optics do not look good but at the end of last year when the Oilers were a 100pt team and in the playoffs, you’d have been hard-pressed to find an Oilers fan who’d do the swap Larsson for Hall. So now that Hall and Eberle are having some success, it’s time to really give Chiarelli the gears, right? I mean it’s always easier to kick a guy when he’s down isn’t it?
Chiarelli is also the man that got Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl under contract for their best years. He’s also the guy that didn’t trade Darnell Nurse and look where he’s playing now… Basically in Andrej Sekera’s spot. Jesse Puljujarvi is now where he should be playing and is a player that actually knows what “200-foot game” means. Ryan Strome actually shoots the puck on the PP too.
Milan Lucic and Kris Russell are interesting choices to highlight in my opinion. Lucic has the 2nd best pts/60 on the team behind Connor McDavid at 2.53 and last I checked, Kris Russell was the teams leading scorer on defense and if he were to keep up the offense until the end of the year and not miss any time due to injury, he’d end up in the same point range (high 30s) as players like Tyson Barrie or Justin Faulk, Colton Parayko or Jaccob Slavvin did last year.
How about that though? A $4M defenseman who not only is amongst the leaders in blocked shots every year but also adds offense… It’s weird right?
As for Reinhart, I agree. It was a shat trade and a longshot to cover the bet. But I will not sit here and cry because the Oilers could’ve picked Matt Barzal. If you actually know what you’re talking about when it comes to that draft year, you’d know that the Oilers weren’t even going to take Barzal with that pick. Not that they couldn’t have used him but Joel Eriksson-Ek and Evgeni Svechnikov were higher on their list if I’m not mistaken and I think that Thomas knows this.
DeBrincat is a guy I wanted Edmonton to take for sure and Tyler Benson’s injury history scared me but that being said, the following teams passed on DeBrincat in the 2nd round too:
Toronto, Buffalo, Columbus, St.Louis, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and Florida
So missing out on Barzal and DeBrincat wasn’t just on Chiarelli, it was on a few other GMs too but you don’t hear all the other fanbases crying like 5-year-olds that their team didn’t get them… Christ, it’s sickening to read all the whining. And you know what? Tyler Benson is having a HELLUVA year for Vancouver right now and barring injury (fingers crossed), should have a season quite similar to Barzal’s last year in Seattle (79pts in 41 games).
Bottom line is this: The Oilers were gifted with Connor McDavid. His selection should mean at least one Stanley Cup for this organization. In order to win, however, you have to have a general manager who knows what he is doing in command of the roster. Peter Chiarelli has not proven that he can be that guy to this point. If this team is a lottery team in McDavid’s final year of his ELC, then someone needs to pay.
The Pittsburgh Penguins were gifted Mario Lemieux back in ’84 and it took them almost a decade to win a Stanley Cup. Don’t tell me the NHL didn’t know that the Penguins deliberately tanked the season prior either. They could’ve done something about it but didn’t… I believe one of the moves that turned around that team was trading a no.2 overall draft pick for a much older offensive defenseman… (Of course it’s not that simple but one sure could make it sound that way, couldn’t they?)
Thomas is right about one thing here. If the Oilers are a lottery team this season, which has ZERO to do with McDavid’s contract, let’s be clear on that, then somebody will have to pay and I’m betting it’ll be McLellan and his staff because they can’t seem to get the special teams going on a consistent basis. It may very well be just his staff that goes since he’s a pretty good coach who is well respected.
IN CONCLUSION
I do not believe that the game has changed so much in one season that the team Chiarelli built last year is obsolete this year. Are the Kings a fast team? How about Winnipeg? Is Tampa Bay the fastest team? I’d argue that no, they are not but what they do have on the Oilers is health, special teams that are running on all cylinders, health on defense and goaltending.
The Oilers downturn started the game Draisaitl got concussed vs. WPG in the 3rd game of the year I reckon. I think that not going with the 3-headed dragon down the middle hurt. Keeping Yamamoto for 9 games didn’t help anybody because the Oilers knew they were sending him back. But hindsight is 20/20 right? Lots of things could’ve been the catalyst to this year.
For me, IF this season does end up with the Oilers drafting in the top ten due to their place in teh standings, then somebody on the coaching staff will need to go. That’s the warning to McLellan that his job is in jeopardy. Then if the Oilers start the same way next season, McLellan goes. That’s Chiarelli’s last card to play before he is relieved of his duties.
Even with that said, there are a few GMs on expiring contracts this year and that might be tempting for Darryl Katz. So ownership could go all Buffalo Sabres on the brass and bring in a new crew too…
But I’ve said this time and time again. The team that Peter Chiarelli has built was built to compete in the Pacific Division, which for now is still one that is won with size. Beat the Pacific division teams in a bunch of 4pt games and you’re still in the mix I say.
My question is, what’s wrong with size and skill? Oilers have a bit of that I’d say and when it’s going it’s near impossible to stop.
What the team is lacking, in my opinion, is confidence and health. The players on that team rely on kids to carry them and don’t we all know how volatile a young person’s mind is. The highs are stupid high and the lows are ridiculously low as it takes time to bring those under control.
When this Oilers team gets it’s mojo (and health) back, they’ll be a team to be reckoned with and it’s at that point that I want to see how many blogs are written about firing Chiarelli and or McLellan.
If you want to talk to me about a disappointing squad, talk to me when they’ve had another October-like month in February this season with a completely healthy squad.
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