The Edmonton Oilers are going to need a new set of coaches before the 2019/20 season starts. They’re also under a lot of pressure to make the playoffs next season and over the last year, so many rumors of former Oilers returning to Edmonton to clean up some unfinished business have come to light.
To add to that, point number three in Elliotte Friedman’s 31 Thoughts from this week’s blog contains a very interesting tidbit that I think could have implications as to a really big future move for the Edmonton Oilers.
Former Florida coach Bob Boughner is a possibility as an Edmonton assistant.
Now, if you didn’t know, Bob Boughner and DJ Smith coached Taylor Hall in Windsor (OHL) and won a couple of Memorial Cups with the former 1st overall pick in 2009 and 2010.
Taylor Hall was coached by Bob Boughner and DJ Smith during his Memorial Cup winning days playing in the OHL for Windsor.
Friedman mentions Dave Tippett, Todd Nelson & DJ Smith as candidates in EDM; wonders if Ralph Kreuger might be a candidate in BUF. ('Oilers Now')
Stay with me here because you might also be inclined to learn that Todd Nelson coached Taylor Hall in Oklahoma City during the 2012/13 season and again at the end of the 2014 campaign in Edmonton…
I’m probably a bit more of a conspiracy nut than most, but man, a lot of lines are being connected there, right?
Would the Oilers go into the 2019/20 season with Todd Nelson as head coach and Bob Boughner and DJ Smith as his assistants in an attempt to lure Taylor Hall back to Edmonton for another kick at the can?
Would the NJ Devils deal Hall to the Oilers at the draft for maybe the 8th overall pick, Jesse Puljujarvi, and Ethan Bear?
Now that we know Ken Hitchcock will not be back as Head Coach. Allow me to suggest that I believe Todd Nelson should merit serious consideration for Oilers HC. Bottom line, players play for him!
Imagine if the Oilers found a way to move Milan Lucic out AND bring back Taylor Hall… On the same day. Wouldn’t that be something? But are those the kind of deals Ken Holland would make? Could Holland find a way to get Hall to sacrifice some $$$ in return for success as he did so many times in Detroit with their superstars over the years?
What do you think? Let me know in the comments below!
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Hell of a press conference introducing Ken Holland as the Oilers new general manager and president of hockey operations yesterday. I feel like somebody might’ve mentioned back in March that Darryl Katz wanted Holland as POHO all along.
"Well Katz quietly wants Holland for POHO potentially and McCrimmon as GM if possible. If not Holland, he will find someone else. I know the fans don't want Holland but he wouldn't be the GM. McCrimmon would be the GM and get FULL autonomy."
— B.L.H. (Edmonton Oilers Enthusiast) (@BeerLeagueHeroe) March 24, 2019
That’s weird. Rod Pedersen and I can now share the “Ken Holland to the Oilers” spoils. Although I get the feeling that Hot Rod isn’t much for sharing…
Nearly passed over that tweet. I didn’t see the blue checkmark. Well, no matter anyhow. Friedman was talking about Holland long before any of us.
Anyways, we can move on from that and actually talk about the presser now.
I was a bit worried at the beginning of the event. Holland sounded a tad nervous and that’s fine, it was a momentous day in his life. Where he got me was when he started talking about hockey and his vision for the Oilers. He got me fired up when he was talking about how you have to grind. How he loved the challenges. Hearing him speak about scouting games instead of just watching them was something that resonated with me too.
I thought he was the star of the show, but that was until a very ill Darryl Katz was addressed in the Q&A. If you click play below the clip should start right as Mr. Katz starts his epic reply to a question about how he feels about the displeasure being shown by season ticket holders.
Look, I think most people came into this introduction thinking that it was going to be Bob Nicholson or Ken Holland saying something that might be considered a rallying cry to the fans. I would be willing to be ZERO percent thought it would’ve been Katz.
Anybody would’ve understood if he had declined to make himself available considering the shape his health is in. The passion he showed yesterday morning was awe inspiring. Honestly, I never took him to be that sort of guy given the previous interviews I’d seen him featured in, but man, I have the utmost respect for him now. I feel like this is an opportunity to rally around the owner of our team and really throw our support behind the club.
If Mr. Katz can do this for us, surely there’s something we can do for him.
#DoItForDarryl
The Big Three
A lot of names are popping up for the Oilers coaching gig like Jay Woodcroft, Trent Yawney, and Glen Gulutzan from within the team. Ken Holland said he wants to bring change and hiring someone who is already here doesn’t make sense to me. I have it on pretty good authority that the assistant coaches have already been told that it’s up to the new coach as to who will be staying with the team and they have permission to seek employment elsewhere.
It’s my belief that there are three main candidates that will be heavily considered for the vacant head coaching position in Edmonton:
Dave Tippett
Todd Nelson
Lane Lambert
I’m not a huge fan of Dave Tippett and I’m not sure there’s an absolute need to hire a veteran coach just because Calgary, San Jose, and Vegas have veteran coaches. Let’s keep in mind, those are veteran teams as well.
I don’t think it’s got that much to do with his defensive style as it does that he’s been out of the game for some time and when he left, his team’s weren’t exactly winning divisions. That said, he did have some great teams in Dallas and Arizona and he had some highly skilled players playing for him in both cities.
I think Buffalo has eyes on him though… So we’ll see if he can turn this into a bidding war or not.
But I would suggest to you that the New York Islanders’ Lane Lambert is a dark horse candidate. A long-time coaching apprentice of Barry Trotz in Washington and then Long Island, Lambert also played for Holland in Detroit. That Red Wings experience also happened to include time with AHL Adirondack…
I’m slow… I think I’ve been saying he’s an assistant in Washington this whole time on Twitter… Ah well.
Point being, if I recall correctly, this is a coach that was a serious candidate for the Colorado Avalanche before they settled on Jared Bednar and has been in the running for multiple coaching jobs since. I don’t know much about him or the role he’s played on Barry Trotz’s bench over the years mind you. I will say that if there’s a coach you want mentoring you at the NHL level today; it’s probably Trotz and if he’s anything like his teacher, he’s going to be a helluva bench boss some day.
My support is behind Todd Nelson. When he’s running the bench, his players produce and his teams win. I mean, he found a way to make Anton Lander a productive NHLer! I look back at how he reinvigorated Nail Yakupov and I can’t help but think that he’s just what the doctor ordered for Jesse Puljujarvi.
This is a guy who gets it. He knows how to man-manage, he knows how to communicate with the young players and the vets. He has a history with Ken Holland being that when the Red Wings AHL affiliate won the Calder Cup, Nelson was the head coach of that team.
He’s been interviewed countless times since leaving the Oilers organization. Other NHL teams want this guy guiding their players and I think it’s time to bring him home to finish what he started back in 2014.
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2019 Draft Notes
As I have it today, the Oilers should be selecting USNTDP forward Matthew Boldy. He’s a 6’2″ 190lb Boston College commit that can play every forward position effectively and that’s something that I think holds a lot of value. If you have a player like that on your team, it’s basically like holding the trump card. When injuries or slumps hit, he can fill in where needed.
Other things I really like about him are:
His vision is elite. He can make high-end passes in the most compromising of positions and hit his teammate on the tape near every time.
He’s a very underrated goal scorer. Cole Caufield racked up the goals this year for “The Program” but not many people know that Boldy was the 2nd highest goal scorer on that team.
He stirs the drink. You’re probably thinking that he’s the recipient of playing on one of the most talent-laden teams in junior hockey history, but I’m here to tell you that his linemates were the ones that benefitted the most. As I watched him play on a line at the u18 tournament in Sweden with Alex Turcotte and Bobby Brink or Trevor Zegras, I noticed he drove that line on every shift and the play went through him.
He knows where to go on the ice before the puck gets there. Now usually when we say something like this we mean that on the offensive side of the game, but I’m talking about both sides of the puck.
He’s got NHL size already. He’ll only need one season at Boston College before he’s ready to join the Oilers in my opinion.
He wins board battles smartly. Even though he’s got the size to do some damage, he’s such a cerebral player along the boards and wins those battles often.
If there’s something that he’ll have to work on, it’s his speed and quickness. His edgework is fantastic but he could use some more power and nimbleness in those legs.
I’d take Boldy over almost every player that is rated in the top-ten save for Hughes and Kakko and Byram. I think he’s a more rounded forward than Dach, Cozens, and Turcotte. He’s way more responsible and lower risk than Zegras and Krebs. Better offensively than Podkolzin I think but the Russian is quite proficient on the defensive side, so it might be a toss-up there.
If you want Leon Draisaitl on his own line AND scoring 50 goals annually, having Boldy on the German’s left/right wing would go a long way to making that happen.
My 2019 top-fifteen looks like this:
Kaapo Kakko – RW – TPS (SM-Liiga)
Jack Hughes – C – USNTDP (USHL/NCAA)
Bowen Byram – LD – Vancouver (WHL)
Matthew Boldy – LW/C/RW – USNTDP (USHL/NCAA)
Dylan Cozens – C – Lethbridge (WHL)
Alex Turcotte – C – USNTDP (USHL/NCAA)
Peyton Krebs – C – Kootenay (WHL)
Cole Caufield – RW – USNTDP (USHL/NCAA)
Kirby Dach – C – Saskatoon (WHL
Vasili Podkolzin – C – SKA St. Petersburg (KHL)
Philip Broberg – LD – AIK (SHL)
Spencer Knight – G – USNTDP (USHL/NCAA)
Alex Newhook – C – Victoria (BCHL)
Trevor Zegras – C – USNTDP (USHL/NCAA)
Raphael Lavoie – RW – Halifax (QMJHL)
What’s going to make it interesting is if there’s a team that really wants Cole Caufield or Philip Broberg and are willing to move into the top-8 to pick them. Or if there’s a team drafting ahead of Edmonton that has eyes on those two.
If you remember last year, the Oilers had their choice of Evan Bouchard, Noah Dobson, or Oliver Wahlstrom. This is going to happen again.
A Milan Lucic Trade Proposal
I don’t know if Ken Holland will be able to move Looch or not but he did find a way to trade Pavel Datsyuk’s contract back in 2016, right?
Back in June, 2016, Ken Holland sent Pavel Datsyuk and the #16 OV pick to ARI for Joe Vitale, #20 ov (Chowolski), and #53 ov (Hronek).
Might he revisit ARI with a similar offer this year? #Oilers have the 8th overall and Arizona has the 14th…
Lucic+8th ov for 14th ov?
— B.L.H. (Edmonton Oilers Enthusiast) (@BeerLeagueHeroe) May 8, 2019
Now, It doesn’t have to be Arizona obviously but I do reckon that Holland is all-in on this draft and if he can help it, he’s not interested leaving the draft without a pick in the first round. So perhaps a team that is looking to move up that has multiple 1st rounders would have some interest in a trade?
Funny, all the rumors of a Lucic/Eriksson swap going on and the draft being in Vancouver… What better time to strike a deal?!
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I received a message from one of my sources a couple days ago telling me that the Oilers will be going with a different head coach and GM in 2018/19. Whatever power struggle is going on between McLellan and Chiarelli has come to a head and Nicholson/Gretzky have had enough.
So those of you that have criticized the Oilers in the past for not doing an “exhaustive search” can rest easy because they’ve been talking to potential candidates for over a month now.
Now you can take that info to the bank or you can laugh it off. No skin off my back. I just share what I’ve been passed along BUT keep in mind anything can happen between now and this summer including the Oilers going on a ridiculous run that would save the jobs of everyone involved.
First off, I’m not part of the fanbase who believe the Oilers should let either the coach or the GM go but I do think it’s inevitable that one of them is axed this summer.
If I had to pick a reason though for each of Chiarelli and McLellan to be let go, they’d be the following:
Chiarelli – His inability to make changes to the coaching staff this season has been staggering. I know he’s loyal to his head coaches but the special teams this season has murdered the Oilers in the standings. You can argue all you want about leaving the team shorthanded but the Oilers have beat really good teams this year with this roster.
McLellan: We come back to special teams. They’ve been atrocious. His selective stubbornness with roster selections and line combos baffles me to this day. If the reports of his staff not changing anything up at the practices are true, then he’s lost the plot and doesn’t have the creativity to work with this group.
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With that said, who do you think would make a good coach for the Oilers and likewise, who’d be a hire at the GM’s position that you’d support. Here are a few candidates I thought of:
Head Coach: Dave Tippet, Darryl Sutter, Joel Quenneville, Ken Hitchcock, Derek Laxdal, Rocky Thompson, Sheldon Keefe, and Todd Nelson.
Tippet did wonders with not very much in Arizona for many years. Sutter turned the Kings into Cup contenders AND winners but is his style of hockey conducive to winning in today’s NHL? I don’t think you can argue with the credentials that multiple Stanley Cup-winning coach Joel Quenneville would bring to the table IF Chicago decides to move in a different direction next season.
OR should the Oilers go shopping in the AHL? Laxdal (Former Edmonton Oil Kings head coach who won 2 WHL championships with the Oilers current director of player personnel, Bob Greene) and Keefe’s teams are at the top of their divisions in the AHL. Rocky Thompson seems like the new Dallas Eakins, and Todd Nelson had a marginally successful experience when he worked in the Oilers’ organization previously.
Would hiring a Laxdal, Thompson, or Nelson be too nepotistic though?
Or maybe Paul Coffey is the guy coming into run the show? That’s what Glenn Healy said recently…
GM: Julien Brisbois, Paul Fenton, Dean Lombardi, Bill Guerin, Ken Holland, Keith Gretzky
Brisbois is surely being courted by the Montreal Canadiens and Fenton will be GM-ing with one of the teams who haven’t offered their current GM a new deal for next season. Please forgive me but I can’t seem to find the current GMs that are going into next season without a contract though. I want to say Vancouver and Detroit are two of them.
I’ve tossed Dean Lombardi’s name out there on Twitter but it seems a lot of people would be against that because of the loyalty-contracts he handed out to guys like Mike Richards and Marian Gaborik. He’s a champ though but would the Oilers just be following the same recipe used to hire the current regime if they hired Lombardi and Sutter?
Another name that has been tossed out is Bill Guerin but he’s a former Oiler… So maybe cross his name off of the list despite him running the show for Pittsburgh’s farm team which is currently in 2nd place in its division and Guerin actually being considered for the GM’s position in Buffalo. He’s actually got a very well known reputation for being an extremely hard worker and for having an outstanding eye for talent. But he’s an old Oiler, so no thanks, right?
Then there’s Ken Holland. He hasn’t had much to write home about in recent years but he IS the guy that built those great Detroit Red Wings teams in the late 90s and well into the 2000s. Lots of experience and connections with Holland. He DID train Steve Yzerman afterall…
It’s such a hard decision, right?
I’m not sure if the next coach should be one that coddles the players though. I wouldn’t mind one that placed an emphasis on defense either. I reckon Ken Hitchcock could walk in and turn these boys around in record time though.
As for GM, I like either Ken Holland or Bill Guerin. I believe a Holland/Hitchcock duo would work well together given their history with Hockey Canada. OR perhaps a Guerin/Quenneville duo?
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It’s been a while since I was left that emotionally frustrated by the Oilers but last night’s game versus the Winnipeg Jets had me near irate and I try my best not to let the team’s results control my emotions because it’s only entertainment, right?
I mean if we’re being honest, that was the first game in quite a while where Todd’s boys laid an egg. December was going oh so well until this latest skid and while I pride myself on being optimistic in the face of the ever-lingering pessimism that clouds this fanbase, I feel like I might be writing more draft dedicated articles soon.
THE COACHES’ FUTURE
There’s been a faction of the Oilers “supporters” that have been calling for McLellan’s head since the end of October and with every subsequent loss the Oilers are handed, I can relate with their angst. The usual response online is something to the effect of, “Haven’t the Oilers hired and fired enough coaches in the last ten years?”
The answer to that question is yes.
If we go back 10 years from today, the Oilers have had 7 separate head coaches.
Craig MacTavish
Pat Quinn
Tom Renney
Ralph Krueger
Dallas Eakins
Todd Nelson
Todd McLellan
From 1998 to 2008, the Chicago Blackhawks also had 7 different head coaches before finally settling on Joel Quenneville.
Dirk Graham
Lorne Molleken
Bob Pulford
Alpo Suhonen
Brian Sutter
Trent Yawney
Denis Savard
As a fan, you should be thankful, the Real Madrid football team went through 9 managers from 2003 to 2009. And that’s one of the most successful football (soccer) teams in history who’ve had some of the best players in the history of the beautiful game.
There’s a real possibility that the playing personnel and it’s coaches aren’t compatible. Maybe Todd McLellan and his staff are more appropriate for a team that isn’t driven by players so young. When he took over in San Jose, he had Thornton and Marleau right in their primes and a defense led by Rob Blake and Dan Boyle, an all-star goalie in Evgeni Nabakov, and the Sharks even added old cagey vets like Claude Lemieux and Jeremy Roenick to boot.
He does not have that in Edmonton at the moment.
The GM has basically two moves left to save his ass and that’s to make another trade in hopes that’ll jump start the team or to fire the coach and his staff but if he does fire the coach, his neck will be on the chopping block next. Usually, that’s the last card to be played before a GM is dismissed.
Now with that being said, the Oilers’ league-mandated week off is coming up and if a coaching change is going to be made in-season, that’s more likely when it’ll be. A pricey one might I add given that McLellan is one of the top paid coaches in the league.
My last thought on the coaches is that if they don’t have the answers to the special teams problems, something they’ve stated publicly, then who does? It is their job to come up with the solutions to the team’s problems and to inform the players, who then take that information and apply it on the ice. If the players aren’t doing that, then the coaches need to react appropriately. If the coaches reactions aren’t being taken seriously, then the GM has to take action be it by making a trade or by letting a coach go. If the GM is unwilling to do that, then… I think you get the point.
Are the players concerned enough about being traded to improve their play though? Are the coaches concerned enough about being fired to make wholesale changes?
SPECIAL TEAMS AKA THE PENALTY KILL
I’ve been taking a look at some of the goals scored vs. the Oilers PK in the last couple of weeks or so and I can’t find a constant error in their formation or tactics being used. What I do find are little brainfarts like over-committing, getting hung up on a teammate, dropping a stick, bad bounces, or not reading the ice properly that are costing the Oilers.
I was curious about the tactic the Oilers have been using on the kill, so I looked into it a bit more.
The Oilers, utilize something called the “Czech Press” on the PK. This tactic a more aggressive version of the “Triangle +1” or a “Wedge +1” and is described as thus:
The general concept of the Triangle +1 is that three penalty killers form a triangle shape down low, protecting the slot and net. The fourth penalty killer is the “plus-one,” focused on getting in shooting lanes, angling the play in certain directions, or pressuring the puck carrier. The key to understanding the Triangle +1 is knowing that the player functioning as the “plus-one” can shift mid-play, depending upon the location of the puck. If the play quickly transitions from left to right, the high forward can sag back into the triangle while the lower forward takes over the “plus-one” role.
Wedge +1
The same concepts of the Triangle +1 apply, but in the Czech Press, the “plus-one” forward is very aggressive. He actively attacks the high man at the blueline (usually a defenseman), and in the event of a pass to a forward on the half boards, he “presses” down on the new puck carrier to cut off space and time.(Source)
Czech Press
Here’s an example of what the Czech Press should look like if deployed properly,
According to the source from above, the Czech Press has it’s advantages and disadvantages,
The Czech Press, on the other hand, looks to actively force opposing power plays into mistakes. The result is more turnovers, but also more opportunities for dangerous chances, due to the chaotic play of the “plus-one” forward. Rapid puck movement has the aggressive forward constantly chasing, and can turn the formation into a “Triangle Plus-Nothing,” with three penalty killers in the slot just waiting to be eaten alive. (Source)
I think one of the things, apart from the possibilities discussed above, we’re witnessing this year with the Oilers is that teams are turning the extra man who chases the puck into the “nothing”. My understanding is that this formation when passive is used to combat the point shot and cross-seam passes. A team that doesn’t have the speed to use the Czech Press shouldn’t be using it in my opinion but maybe it’s more than that. One could argue it’s intelligence on the ice too because you can’t simply run around with your head cut off on the PK. The penalty kill is all about managing 2-on-1 scenarios, right?
Some players that are having good years on the PK according to some parameters set by Jon Willis (20 min TOI, GA/60, league avg=7 GA/60) on Twitter last night are:
Jujhar Khaira (36.1 TOI, 4.99 GA/60) – I believe that he’d be just as good as Pouliot on the PK if given the chance. He’s got good hands, a big body, AND he doesn’t take too many penalties.
Connor McDavid (47.9 TOI, 5.01 GA/60) – Of course he’s one of the best. He’s got the speed and agility to be used properly in the Czech Press PLUS he’s the smartest player in the game.
Brandon Davidson (33.3 TOI, 3.6 GA/60) – Matt Benning could use a night or two in the press box. He’s still young but he’s really hitting the sophomore slump this year and Davidson’s #s don’t lie here. Add to that Davy’s got a bit more experience and size on Benning.
Eric Gryba (29.43 TOI, 6.12 GA/60) – There’s not much to say about Grybs. He’s ineffective 5×5 and now he’s in the minors.
Other players that are hovering just over the league average GA/60 are Mark Letestu (8.79), Oscar Klefbom (8.98), and Iiro Pakarinen (8.85).
But the rest of the team are in double-digits. Drake Caggiula’s GA/60 on the PK is 17.81… Which is mad because he’s so fast and aggressive, right? You’d think that he’d fit right into this PK tactic. The worst dman is Matt Benning with 15.8 GA/60 on the PK…
If the Oilers don’t have the players who can effectively work within the penalty killing system, why use it? It reminds me of Dallas Eakins’ “swarm”. The coaches are trying to force it down the players’ throats and from what I’ve gathered, it doesn’t sound like the players are having anything of it anymore.
I think if you’ve noticed, that nearly every team that the Oilers get a PP versus uses the passive “triangle +1” because the Oilers are happy to pass it around the perimeter at their own pace. If the Oilers could move it around a lot quicker maybe by bringing the players on the wall a little higher to support the dman, they could open things up a bit better.
Another way to create scoring chances is… GO TO THE BLUE PAINT! Jesse Puljujarvi has scored but one from in the home plate if I recall correctly. I mean, I’m not a coach by trade but if the other team is parking the bus in front of the goalie, why not add some more chaos and throw three of your guys in front too and leave a 2-on-1 scenario for the remaining players. Then simply get the puck on the net for the players to battle over. I think an added bonus to those goal-mouth scrambles might be causing the other team to take more penalties due to the desperation of clearing the puck from so close to the net.
THE 2018 DRAFT
I suppose we’re going to have to start talking about it sooner or later… At this point, the Oilers are sitting pretty at 6th overall. Whether you’re the type to follow the draft or not, I’m sure you’ve heard who is going 1st overall, the Swedish Bobby Orr, Rasmus Dahlin. After Dahlin is a right-wing sniper who plays for Barrie in the OHL named Andrei Svechnikov.
Dahlin and Svechnikov will be going 1 and 2 at the draft, I have no doubt in my mind about that. But it’s from 3rd overall to 6th overall that it could get interesting. Right now I believe it’s a battle between a magical Czech forward named Filip Zadina and another Swedish Karlsson clone named Adam Boqvist for no.3. Matthew Tkachuk’s little brother Brady should go 5th and then the 2nd best skater in the draft, Quinn Hughes, a dman playing NCAA in Michigan should round it out.
We don’t know where the lottery balls will land come draft time but I’m not a huge fan of selecting a defender in the top 6 not named Rasmus Dahlin.
If the Oilers draft…
1st – Rasmus Dahlin (LD) – Swedish Orr
2nd – Andrei Svechnikov (RW) – Tarasenko V2
3rd – Filip Zadina (LW) – Very Barzal-like with his puck handling and shooting
4th – Brady Tkachuk (LW) – Better than his brother
5th – Adam Boqvist (RD) – Dazzling defender
6th – Oliver Wahlstrom (RW) – Shoots the lights out
Should the Oilers lose out in the lottery and be forced to move down, I think trading down to gather assets would be a good plan as the cluster from 7th overall to about 14th or 15th look to be a safe area for the Oilers to trade down to and still get a good player.
But if you’re wondering what some of those players look like, look no further than our 2018 November Top Ten Rankings over at the Beer League Heroes Youtube Channel!
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After a longer than expected delay we are back with the third installment of my point prediction series. Today we are going to make some guesses and see where the Oilers right wings finish the season. We know who the four guys are more than likely that will dress the majority of the 82 game schedule, barring injuries or trades of course, with three being locks to make the team in the fall and see some major minutes. The top three right wingers for the Edmonton Oilers is obviously going to be Jordan Eberle, Teddy Purcell, and Nail Yakupov. The final member of this quartet could be a toss-up between Rob Klinkhammer and the younger and cheaper Tyler Pitlick. Young Tyler has had a rough go as a professional hockey player with injury after injury constantly delaying him from taking the next step to become a full-time NHL player. After all the kid has been through I’m hopeful he can finally put together a full season of hockey and fight for the minutes that will be Klinkhammer’s f not challenged. For my purposes, since I need to choose one for this I am going to have to go with the more experienced option and assume that Rob Klinkhammer will fill the fourth line right wingers position.
Now that we have our list let’s look at where the Oilers finished the 2014/15 season to see roughly where we are at so far in our predictions. Last season the Edmonton Oilers scored a paltry 193 goals. While not the leagues lowest scoring franchise they were definitely a far cry from the league leading Tampa Bay Lightning with 259 goals or the western conference leading scorers, the Dallas Stars. So far to date I have a total of 135 goals from only eight players. It is fairly safe to assume that I am predicting a fairly big increase in production this coming season. A lot of that increase will be the result of a vastly improved power-play under the new coaching staff. Now that we have the introductions done let’s get down to business and make some guesses.
Jordan Eberle
Jordan is by far the best player on the starboard side for the Edmonton Oilers and has been a very consistent producer since first joining the NHL with Taylor Hall and Magnus Paajarvi in the fall of 2010. Since his first NHL goal where he brought fans to their feet with one of the nicest goals I have ever seen.
I’ve probably seen that goal a few thousand times by now and it still amazes me. The skill needed to pull off something like that are just astounding. I don’t care what anyone says, that is still the nicest goal that I have ever seen a Oilers player score. Back to the topic at hand though. Since that amazing first NHL goal Ebs has been a very consistent point scorer for the Edmonton Oilers. Other than his first season as a pro Jordan has proven to be an extremely durable player missing a grand total of seven games over four seasons of hockey. So we generally know that Eberle will play unless he absolutely can’t. Another thing that we know about Ebs is that he has excellent shooting skill. He will usually opt to pass the puck if he doesn’t get the perfect shot that he wants. That can be both a good and a bad thing as even the imperfect shots sometimes find the twine.
Last season Jordan led the team in scoring with 63 points. That included 24 goals and 39 assists. HIs third season of more than 20 goals in fact, and he did it while posting a below career average shooting percentage. His career average is 14.0% and last season he dipped slightly to 13.1%. Still a very solid number and a reason to be hopeful for slightly higher numbers next season.
The addition of Connor McDavid will affect everyone on the team as we all know. At home the Oilers can gift the McDavid line with easier competition, which would ensure the Nuge line would in effect be fed to the wolves, but on the road no such luxury exists and the opposition would likely run out their top players against Hall and McDavid. This is when the trio of Pouliot-RNH-Eberle will make them pay for it too. Their chemistry together last season was excellent and I think unless they are split up, which I don’t foresee happening, that they will continue right along putting pucks in the net. My prediction for Jordan is that his shooting percentage will take a slight bounce upwards but his even strength minutes will drop slightly. This will mean that his totals from last season are fairly close to where he will likely finish the season. 27 goals ad 41 assists. That is a pretty solid number, even more so after you see what the rest of the right side will bring to the table.
Teddy Purcell
Teddy Purcell was acquired last summer for the overpaid and under-performing Sam Gagner. The trade was, in essence, a swap of bad contracts. Purcell had more experience but was thought to be heading toward a buy-out from Steve Yzerman and his Tampa Bay Lightning. Definitely not a ringing endorsement from his former club, but it isn’t like we didn’t know that he had warts to his game. Anytime you swap two bad players you know they are coming with some baggage. Teddy may not be the most physical or the fastest guy on the team but does bring things to the roster that few other forwards can say that they do. He is a real veteran forward, one with nearly five hundred games on his resume. He is a dependable two-way forward with a good defensive conscience. He is one of the few if not the only player that will play in the top six that can say that. He may not provide amazing numbers points wise but having him on a line with Taylor Hall and Connor McDavid gives the trio a defensively responsible forward that will be able to cover somewhat for the other two when the play beats them back up ice.
There is a veritable cornucopia of posts and tweets arguing the idea that Purcell should have been headed for a buy-out instead of to training camp this fall. My question to them is who takes his spot then? Yakupov? He isn’t ready for that yet. His game is still far too much chaos in his own end and other teams would quickly take advantage of that fact. Purcell is the best available option to play second line minutes to start the season. He is spending the summer training with the inhuman Gary Roberts. You know, the guy that broke his neck had surgery and still came back to be an effective pain in the ass in the toughest league in the world. Yeah that guy. Roberts will kick his ass all summer long, along with Connor McDavid, and Purcell is going to come to camp in 6 weeks in the best shape he has ever been in. Don’t be surprised to see a bigger but faster player than we did last September.
Last season Teddy had an atrocious shooting percentage, 8.2% to be exact, but not actually that far below his career average of 9.4%. That isn’t really any difference when you think about it. Over the season if he had been at his average it would have added two more goals to his total. Teddy did manage 12 goals and 22 assists last season. Not bad numbers but definitely not the offense I would expect from a guy making 4.5 million this year. One other thing to remember when we are projecting this player is that he is in a contract year. With the number of players that are being left unsigned year after year one has to think that is weighing heavily on the minds of players that are in the same position as Purcell.
I predict that Purcell comes into camp in better shape than he has ever been in and he takes the bull by the horns to earn the second line minutes that he is best suited for. My hypothesis for Purcell is that he will be on McDavid’s right side until roughly Christmas when Yakupov will take over the spot. In his time with the franchise player Purcell will definitely make the most of it and will capitalize on his quality linemates. After being shifted off this line I still see Teddy being an effective forward aiding Anton Lander in his development. This coming season I see 15 goals and 23 assists for Purcell. HIs slick hands will ensure that he still sees his share of power-play time.
Nail Yakupov
Some have called him enigmatic. Some say he is a victim of the “Russian” factor. For myself I prefer not to jump to conclusions about this young potential star scorer. Nail has had a rough start to his career to this point. He started out under Ralph Kruger and his development seemed to be heading the right direction. He wasn’t asked to do what he wasn’t accustomed and he equated himself very well He had 17 goals and 14 assists for 31 points. Very solid numbers for a rookie, but keep in mind that Yak did that all in 48 games. His rookie year was the lock-out shortened season. After his freshman year Craig MacTavish was given the role of general manager after Steve Tambellini was released from his duties and he decided that the correct path of action was to remove the coach that finally seemed to be moving the team in the right direction in favour of the AHL flavour of the month. In what could have been the worst mistake of his career as GM, MacT decided to let Kruger go, via Skype no less, and hire Dallas Eakins. We all know how that worked out for this team. Right back into the sewer we went and we are just emerging now.
Yakupov had his minutes cut and seemed to lose all his confidence under Eakins. The pair never seemed to be able to mesh as a coach and player and as such it really hampered Yakupov’s development. Once Eakins was finally put out of our misery Nail seemed to flourish under the tutelage of Todd Nelson. After the coaching change Yakupov seemed to come alive and we got to see the free and easy smile return to this young mans face that has helped this fan base make him an icon!
Predicting Yakupov’s points is a little harder than most, just because there is so much chaos to his game that one never knows just how things will transpire when he is on the ice. That is precisely why I see him starting on the third line this fall. Adding that much defensive chaos to an already pressure filled season for McDavid to start just isn’t a smart thing to do. I do think that McDavid will rise to exceed expectations just like he has at every other stage in his career and will prove capable of handling a little additional chaos in his game. For his part I think that Nail will take a huge step forward in his development this season and while he won’t ever be the most reliable player in the defensive zone he will likely be more predictable in his habits and less of a liability.
His point totals should rebound this season as well. After such a promising start to his career it isn’t hard to envision future years of 30 plus goals for this sniper. And let’s be honest, there is no one on this team that likes to score more than Nail. Remember the greatest celly in Oilers history? Here it is.
https://youtu.be/tfysDNnuX64
How can you not cheer for a guy like that? His enthusiasm for the game is the best thing about this humble and kind-hearted young man. Well actually the best thing about him is that he can be an Oiler for the next 15 years still! Okay so we know that the start of last seasoning was really just a continuation of the season before under Eakins so point totals from last season are for the most part irrelevant but we will look at them anyways. Last season Nail played 81 out of the 82 games possible but still only managed to net 33 points, 14 goals and 19 assists. Not good numbers for a first overall pick but we have already established that there were extenuating circumstances involved that did nothing to help the situation. This season I think we will see a rebirth of Nail and that he will finally take steps forward under proper coaching and mentorship. Don’t get me wrong, Derek Roy seemed like a tremendous mentor to the young man and it helped make the second half of his season a lot better than the first half.
My prediction for Nail is that he will finally reach the 20-goal mark this season and that his point totals will exceed forty for the first time in his short career. I see 21 goals and 24 assists. Just think that has the potential for 21 more celebrations for the fans to adore and other teams to hate this season! Sounds like magic to me!
Rob Klinkhammer
How can you not root for a guy with Klinkhammer for a last name? Colonel Klink joined the Oilers part way through last season as part of the David Perron to Pittsburgh and filled the role he was acquired to fill. He is a fourth line defensive minded player that will never pot a lot of points but brings intensity and dependability to the bottom half of the roster. In his 40 games with Edmonton last season he only managed 3 points, including his only goal in the blue and orange. He is not a goal scorer that is for sure. He had a grand total of 5 goals last year split between the three teams he suited up for. To be fair though his shooting percentage with Edmonton was abysmal for lack of a better word. While his career average is nothing to scream at with a mediocre 9.2% but in his 40 games with Edmonton he could only muster a pathetic 3.2%. That is really bad, I mean insanely bad! Obviously his percentage almost certainly will revert back to closer to his career average but he does have more than one season with a lower than average shooting percentage. So how much he will bounce back is up for debate.
He will likely be on the opening night roster but should he falter at any point through-out the season he will quickly see himself sitting in the press box or sent down to Bakersfield. My guess is that he will see roughly 50 games this season and will eventually be replaced with a younger and cheaper option. Not that Rob is that old but at 28 he definitely won’t be a part of the McDavid cluster in the future. It is hard for me to rip on the guy too much as I’ve watched him play since his days with the Lethbridge Hurricanes. I like Klinkhammer and I like what he can bring to the bottom six but unfortunately this isn’t a popularity contest and there will likely be better options available before the end of the year. That being said I will venture to guess that the Colonel will play admirably while he gets the chance and will contribute 5 goals and 6 assists to the cause. Solid numbers for a fourth line player.
With only 49 more days until the first pre-season game in the league, 50 for us Oilers fans that are interested in the split squad games against the abhorred Calgary Flames, there is going to be excitement building in the city of Edmonton and all of Oilers nation. How many people are actually going to stay indoors on what will likely be one of the last nice weekends of the year to get the chance to watch Connor play in a prospects tournament in Penticton? I know I sure will be. The Oilers first game will be on September 11th at 8:30 pm in case you were wondering. I was hoping to attend the tournament for my fourth time this year but alas it is not in the cards. Kids sports start earlier and earlier every year it seems.
In any case I will be back soon with the next in the series covering the starting six defensemen and the one or two others that will likely make the opening night 23-man list. Thanks for reading and I want to hear from all of you in the comments. I will try to get back to every comment that I see but sometimes that just isn’t possible. If I don’t respond on here feel free to tweet me, @cooke_rob. Thanks again for reading and be sure to visit the Beer League Heroes T-shirt shop. My own designs will available here soon, stay tuned for an official launch date and a couple small contests that I am going to run for you fine folks.
![Jordan Eberle First NHL Goal vs. Calgary Flames (2010) [HD]](https://i0.wp.com/i.ytimg.com/vi/tB9K_eG8_3I/hqdefault.jpg?w=474&ssl=1)
