Tag Archives: Andrej Sekera

Beer League Hero, Edmonton Oilers, NHL, Stanley Cup Playoffs

How Do the Oilers Shut Down the Anaheim Ducks Offense?

Oilers Blog II - Adam Larsson

Let’s start with the player above. Adam Larsson.

How long has it been since the Oilers had a top-end (I really want to say elite) shutdown defenseman? Since Chris Pronger? Jason Smith? Jeff Beukeboom? I am SO happy with Larsson’s performance not only to th eye but also on the stat sheet.

Let’s take a look at how five of the Anaheim Ducks’ top offensive threats have done against each of the Oilers top 6 defensemen in 2016/17.

Let’s preface this by saying that what happens in the regular season doesn’t necessarily mean the same will happen in the playoffs. As everybody knows, anything can happen in a short-term tournament like the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Goalies get hot, grinders start scoring, basically; anything goes. But I want to present to you some metrics that stand out for me.

Nothing special, just something to chew on while you’re waiting for game 1 to start.

I’d like to stick to using Goals for Per 60 (GF60) and Goals Against per 60 (GA60). I’m getting the numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com and they are the 5v5 numbers. The reason I want to use the goal scoring metrics are because a team can have all the possession stats they want but unless those translate into goals, they’re meaningless in my opinion, right LA Kings? Besides, goals win/lose the games, no?

Ryan Getzlaf (3g 2A 5Pts in playoffs) vs:

Adam Larsson (36:40 TOI) – 0G 0A 0PTS 3 shots
GF60 – o.00
GA60 – 3.27

Oscar Klefbom (29:50 TOI) – 0G 0A 0PTS 2 shots
GF60 – 0.00
GA60 – 4.02

Andrej Sekera (30:24 TOI) – 0G 2A 2PTS 1 shots
GF60 – 3.95
GA60 – 0.00

Kris Russell (25:54 TOI) – 0G 0A 0PTS 2 shots
GF60 – 0.00
GA60 – 0.00

Darnell Nurse (14:32 TOI) – 0G 3A 3PTS 0 shots
GF60 – 12.39
GA60 – 0.00

Matthew Benning (15:18 TOI) – 0G 1A 1PTS 0 shots
GF60 – 3.92
GA60 – 0.00

Is it safe to assume that the Ducks might try to avoid having Getzlaf on the ice vs. Larsson/Klefbom?

Rickard Rakell (2G 3A 5pts in playoffs) vs:

Adam Larsson (37:04 TOI) – 0G 0A 0PTS 2 shots
GF60 – 0.00
GA60 – 1.62

Oscar Klefbom (31:23 TOI) – 0G 1A 1PTS 2 shots
GF60 – 1.91
GA60 – 1.91

Andrej Sekera (29:42 TOI) – 1G 0A 1PTS 4 shots
GF60 – 2.02
GA60 – 4.04

Kris Russell (24:00 TOI) – 0G 0A 0PTS 2 shots
GF60 – 0.00
GA60 – 2.50

Matthew Benning (16:29 TOI) – 1G 0A 1PTS 1 shots
GF60 – 3.64
GA60 – 3.64

Apparently, Rakell and Darnell Nurse did not face each other but here we see that Larsson and Klelfbom lead the way in shutting down Rakell’s offense. Interesting enough was Russell and Sekera though. Rakell’s goals against shoots way up when Seksi is on the ice.

Jakob Silfverberg (2g 1a 3pts in playoffs) vs:

Adam Larsson (18:16 TOI) – 0G 0A 0PTS 6 shots
GF60 – 3.28
GA60 – 3.38

Oscar Klefbom (15:57 TOI) – 0G 0A 0PTS 5 shots
GF60 – 3.76
GA60 – 3.76

Andrej Sekera (23:46 TOI) – 0G 0A 0PTS 4 shots
GF60 – 0.00
GA60 – 2.52

Kris Russell (24:00 TOI) – 0G 0A 0PTS 4 shots
GF60 – 0.00
GA60 – 3.31

Matthew Benning (11:38 TOI) – 0G 0A 0PTS 2 shots
GF60 – 0.00
GA60 – 0.00

Darnell Nurse ( 11:25 TOI) – 0G 0A 0PTS 1 shots
GF60 – 0.00
GA60 – 0.00

Right here we see that Jakob Silfverberg spent the majority of his time lining up against Sekera and Russell with no luck. Althought, he did see an uptick in the GF60 metric when facing Larsson/Klefbom. Must be a Swedish thing. lol. Nurse and Benning shut the whole game down when they were on the ice with the Silfver Surfer. No goals for, none against.

Patrick Eaves (1g 2a 3pts in playoffs) vs:

Adam Larsson (25:30 TOI) – 0G 1A 1PTS 3 shots
GF60 – 2.35
GA60 – 2.35

Oscar Klefbom (23:48 TOI) – 0G 1A 1PTS 3 shots
GF60 – 2.52
GA60 – 2.52

Andrej Sekera (19:26 TOI) – 0G 0A 0PTS 3 shots
GF60 – 0.00
GA60 – 9.26

Kris Russell (16:15 TOI) – 0G 0A 0PTS 3 shots
GF60 – 0.00
GA60 – 3.69

No Nurse, Benning, or Gryba for Patrick Eaves 5v5 this season I guess. I suppose it makes sense, he’s been on the top line in both Dallas and Anaheim. Seems the Oilers 2nd pairing did quite well vs. Eaves and his magic beard. Well, I’ll tell you something the fine people who study the fancy stats won’t, the Oilers are 4-2 this post season against teams who employ players with ridiculously long beards.

Corey Perry (1g 2a 3pts in playoffs) vs:

Adam Larsson (28:02 TOI) – 0G 0A 0PTS 3 shots
GF60 – 0.00
GA60 – 4.28

Oscar Klefbom (22:46 TOI) – 0G 0A 0PTS 0 shots
GF60 – 0.00
GA60 – 5.27

Andrej Sekera (23:09 TOI) – 0G 2A 2PTS 3 shots
GF60 – 5.18
GA60 – 0.00

Kris Russell (20:46 TOI) – 0G 0A 0PTS 4 shots
GF60 – 0.00
GA60 – 0.00

Matthew Benning (15:42 TOI) – 0G 1A 1PTS 5 shots
GF60 – 3.82
GA60 – 0.00

Darnell Nurse (20:50 TOI) – 0G 1A 1PTS 3 shots
GF60 – 2.88
GA60 – 0.00

Eric Gryba (16:23 TOI) – 0G 0A 0PTS 2 shots
GF60 – 0.00
GA60 – 0.00

A couple of things surprised me here, one being how much Darnell Nurse played against Perry 5v5 and how badly Sekera struggled against him.

That’s it! I was thinking of doing up Ryan Kesler too but I don’t consider him to be a player that the Oilers will be wanting to “shut down”. Cogliano is another I see as a player not really considered an offensive threat to the Oilers, so I skipped him as well.

Multiple metrics would probably paint a better picture but I’m a simple guy and I like my hockey the same. Adding more numbers to try and create a more clear idea of who the Oilers should deploy against which Ducks might just muddy the waters that much more though.

Not sure if this helps or hinders your understanding of what the Oilers have in their defense going into the Anaheim series, but I guess I’m just tired of hearing how good the other team’s defenses are and I’d like to hear a bit more on how Kris Russell is helping the team, how Andrej Sekera’s performances have really gone unnoticed for too long, how Oscar Klefbom is an emerging no.1 defender, how Darnell Nurse is really coming into his own as a two-way threat from the blueline, how Matt Benning could very well be the best college signing in a very long time, and lastly, how Adam Larsson might just be the top shutdown defenseman in the NHL.

Click the image and head over to our Teepublic shot to grab some sweet BLH merch.

 

 

Edmonton Oilers, Fancy Stats, Michael Gerber, NHL

Is the Edmonton Oilers Success Sustainable?

The Oilers are off to a great start, second in the Pacific Division and 5 points clear of a playoff spot but is this anything more than a McDavid fueled hot start?

A good indicator of whether a team as a whole is over achieving is to look at a larger sample size than wins or team +/-. The largest data set available is the team’s Corsi For %. This indicates whether a team has possession of the puck more than their opponents.  The Oilers rank 11th in the NHL in CF% and 3rd in the Pacific Division. This shows that the Oilers are not winning games by luck, there is real improvement over the teams 48.9% 2015-16 season which ranked 12th worst in the NHL.

Among smaller but also reliable data sets the Oilers also show well with:

–          51.16% Fenwick For % (11th NHL) ,

–          51.91% Goals For % (12th NHL)

–          50.87% Shots For % (10th NHL) and

–          50.1% Scoring Chances For%

There are only 7 teams in the NHL to have a positive number in every category listed above and the Oilers are one of them. Combine these with the fact that the Oilers have an average shooting percentage and average save percentage and you have a team that is performing well across the board without running hot, unsustainable goaltending or lucky shooting.

Individually let’s start with the new captain McDavid, he’s co-leader for the scoring race in the NHL and providing consistent, elite offense with a rotating set of wingers. He’s been excellent as expected and his contribution to the Oilers position in the standings shouldn’t and won’t be ignored. Past the obvious impact of the captain is there room for optimism?

The Oilers latest winning streak is a great example, it has come at a time where the offense has not been coming in piles for McDavid. Despite this, the team has been able to come from behind to tie and win games, pushing teams around and grinding out wins along the way when finesse alone isn’t cutting it. There is real depth to this team (including defensively) and it is really showing of late.

Leon Draisaitl has been fantastic despite playing a lot of minutes with 3rd line quality wingers, putting up 1st line quality stats.

 Patrick Maroon has continued to show himself to be a capable top 6 winger on the score sheet.

Milan Lucic, despite his detractors, has been putting up good numbers and is 3rd on the team in scoring.

Mark Letestu has proven me entirely wrong as a capable power play specialist along with killing penalties and centering a 4th line that is a 5 on 5 force.

Zack Kassian continues to Kass and if he were to find a little luck from the officials might have 12-15 points from a depth role.

Matthew Benning has been fantastic, building on the Brandon Davidson happy surprise of 15-16 and giving the Oilers a very usable right shot defender.

Adam Larsson is a capable right shot 1st pairing defender.

Darnell Nurse had been very good prior to injury and has a complete skill set to go along with a maturing positional understanding of the game.

Andrej Sekera has been everything the Oilers thought they were getting when they signed him; capable and reliable in all situations.

Oscar Klefbom has been up and down but is coming off of a major period of long-term recovery and has proven every bit capable as a top 4 defender.

Cam Talbot has been a legitimate starting goaltender providing dependable regular starts.

Contributing further to that depth are a few players that have yet to contribute to full effect this season that we know have the potential to do more should the performance of others slide. The entire unit recently used for long stretches as a top line of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Benoit Pouliot and Jordan Eberle are underperforming based on their abilities and could very well have a rebound in 2017.

Jesse Puljuajrvi is a highly talented rookie that has been in and out of the lineup. He is the youngest player in the NHL, was and was regarded in his draft year as a better prospect than Leon Draisaitl was and was in the conversation around this time last year to unseat Auston Matthews as the #1 pick. Arguably his rookie season has been as or more successful than Draisaitl’s was and he has the potential to break out as early as the second half of this season.

The Oilers are legitimately outplaying their opponents more often than not and although as Oiler fans are all too aware key injuries can derail a season (as they can any teams) there is no reason to believe that the team is anything but for real.

Enjoy 2017 everyone!!

Click the pic and grab a 16-bit McDavid tee!
Edmonton Oilers, Fancy Stats, G Money

It’s way too early for this dashboard

It’s not enough data!

Normally for a shot metrics dashboard like this, you’d prefer to have at least 10 and preferably 20 games of data.

But I’m showing it to you anyway!

The reason is because, well, it actually does have a few interesting things embedded in it, and I’m going to walk you through what I see. Would be interested to hear if you observe anything else!

So without further ado …

Here is the dashboard, annotated with numbered points of interest (click to embiggen, an explanation of the dashboard is at the end if you haven’t seen it before):


Analysis

So referring to the numbers above, and remembering the caveat about how early as it is, here’s what I see of interest:

  1. Oh what a surprise, the McDavid line tops the board!  The biggest thing to note here is that big discrepancy between McDavid’s blue Corsi line and his purple Danger line. Most players I expect will have those converge over the season. I expect with McDavid that divergence is going to stay.
  2. Mark Fayne only played the one game but hey, it was really good!
  3. I still think the best thing for his development (and the cap situation) is for Jesse P to spend a good chunk of time in the AHL.  But these are nice numbers for a raw rook.
  4. Oscar and Adam aka KlefLar aka AdamBom are giving up an unhealthy edge in shot attempts, but are doing very nicely on the danger aspect.  As I noted in point #1, this is a mild cause for concern, as these two tend to converge over time.  However!  Larsson has shown for the last couple of seasons that he is a better danger suppressor than he is a shot suppressor, so I expect that we may see this ‘poor shot, good danger’ being a persistent effect too. I can live with that!
  5. You can clearly see the recent uptick for Gryba and Nurse – they’ve played two really solid games in a row.
  6. Russell and Sekera started very strongly but have been falling off the pace the last while. This is what a lot of the “Russell warners” suggested was likely to happen.  I don’t think it’s overly indicative either way, and have very much liked both Russell and Sekera’s game so far.  But it’s something to keep an eye on.
  7. Like Nurse and Gryba, Nugey had a rough start to the season, but the last couple of games have been really solid, and against Vancouver I thought Nugey was the best of the Oiler forwards.

The other notable issue is that performance of the team outside of the McDavid line is a significant concern.

Those are the main things I see on this dashboard this early in the season.  There are other things of note (like Pitlick’s shot metrics vs his 20% sh%!, but those are exactly the kinds of things that it really is too early to comment on. I’m more interested in some of the early trends around the key players and prospects).

How about you?  See anything else interesting?

PS. Dashboard Explanation

If you haven’t seen this dashboard (I tweet it out regularly through the season, and will do more of these walkthroughs here at BLH every 20 or so games), here is how to read it:

  1. Every player with even a single game will show up.  Blue background is a forward, yellow is for defensemen.
  2. The list is sorted by raw Corsi differential
  3. The blue/brown trace shows you raw Corsi differential over the course of the season so far. Blue means above breakeven, brown is below.
  4. The purple line shows my Dangerous Fenwick metric, which takes unblocked shots and adjusts them for danger (based on shot type and distance)
  5. Obviously, the farther above the line, the better!
  6. But really what you’re looking for is things like trends, hot and cold streaks, big divergences between raw and danger metrics, and so on
  7. I call it a dashboard because in a single image it gives you a really clear look on how every player on the team is doing over the course of the season, and that’s not easy to do!
  8. Feel free to tweet questions at me @OilersNerdAlert. You can also post questions in the comment section below, but for some reason my comments get eaten on a regular basis, so I might not be able to respond!
Armchair GM, Edmonton Oilers, Michael Sifeldeen, NHL, Trades

Someone’s In Big Trouba

6 Comments

Okay, before you beat me up and take my lunch money for that pun that doesn’t even really work if you read it out loud, let’s just talk about a few things. A recap, if you will, of a rather eventful few days at a point in the offseason not really close to any major events, when we as hockey writers have to just take it upon ourselves to manufacture controversy wherever we can. I will gladly shoulder that burden.

Oh hey, Sexbom
  • By now, we’re all painfully aware of the comments made by Klefbom in regard to Hall and his play against tough competition, and how it was in all likelihood someone in the Oilers organization who made him “clarify” those comments the next morning, when they became a whole lot more politically correct and a whole lot less about Hall
  • Tyson Barrie is going to be an Avalanche… Avalancher?.. for the foreseeable future and not, in fact, an Oiler. Boo-urns.
  • Jacob Trouba and Winnipeg management are “far apart on money, term, and usage”, according to comments made by TSN’s Gary Lawless on “That’s Hockey” on Tuesday

But what does it all mean, man?

Well, a few things, maybe:

  • The Cubs are still not going to win the World Series
  • If one more goddamn Pidgey breaks out of one of my pokeballs, I’m deleting Pokémon Go for good
  • Maybe Klefbom gets traded to Winnipeg for Trouba?

I know, I know, that’s ridiculous. I’ll never delete Pokémon Go. So let’s talk about why the Oilers and the Jets do this trade.

Anyone who’s been paying attention the last few years knows that Peter Chiarelli absolutely does not care at all about your opinion when it comes to who he gets rid of from an organization. Phil Kessel, Tyler Seguin, and Taylor Hall can all attest to that. He also has no time for guys who he feels are sources of “character problems” inside or outside the locker room. Do Klef’s comments put him firmly on Chia’s shit list? Who knows. But if the rumours are true that he was the one who got on the phone and laid down the law, you’ve got to think there’s tension there.

Enter, the Winnipeg Jets and their inability to retain young talent long-term. There’s an argument to be made that the Jets are under-utilizing one of their best defensive assets, and it’s probably pissing him off, especially if they’re trying to lowball him on his well-earned bridge contract. Jacob is watching Dustin “The Brandon Davidson Killer” Byfuglien lumber around with a $7.6M contract until 2021 and he wants to get his, too. I reckon he’s asking for something like a $6Mx4 and guaranteed PP minutes, and the Jets don’t want to pony up just yet, on term or price.

I hate this guy

Maybe a guy like Klefbom, locked in at under $4.2M for the next 6 seasons looks pretty appealing to Winnipeg right now. Maybe the Oilers take a shot on Trouba (who is pretty much a known quantity at this point, who stays healthier than poor Klef has historically) and give him the $6M he wants for a few years. We’ll be shedding some anchors soon with all the money tied up in Ference and Nikitin, and we have almost $8.5M in cap space left as it is. Woodguy (one half of the very cool WoodMoney stat co-created by BLH’s own G Money) loves the guy, and he’s a lot smarter than me and has the fancystats to prove what an asset Trouba would be. The Oilers so desperately need defencemen who consistently maintain possession and drive offense, which is Jacob’s specialty. Now, that’s not to say the numbers indicate that Klefbom doesn’t do that — because he definitely does — but what I’m saying is that we wouldn’t necessarily miss him all that much. (I mean, I would miss just looking at him at the very least, and these top Google suggestions would seem to indicate the Edmonton area would share my pain.)

 

But we’ll plop BDavey on the top line on Larsson’s wing and let them just be awesome and rock solid together and out-Corsi everyone in the Pacific. Look at what it does to our defensive lineups:

Davidson – Larsson
Sekera- Trouba
Nurse – Fayne/Oesterle

Holy smokes, right? That’s an objectively awesome defensive lineup. And cheap, too! Dare I say it, that’s a playoff d-core.

And all because Klefbom shot his mouth off a bit to the Swedish press. It sure is nice here in perpetual optimism land, where the glass is always half full and this year is always our year!

Dig skateboarding? Click the pic and grab this new “Thrasher Magazine” inspired tee!
Click on the pic and grab a new 16-bit Fighting Looch tee!
If you’re a fan of Lowetide, you need this shirt! Click the pic and get yours today!

Click the pic and grab a 16-bit McDavid tee for the summer!
Edmonton Oilers, Michael Sifeldeen, NHL

The Oilers’ 2016-17 Bottom Pairing: The Last Line of Defence

2 Comments

I know what you’re thinking: the Oilers blogosphere definitely needs another article about our defensive situation. But mostly, those articles have been focused on the addition of our new Swedish stud (yes, I’m calling him a stud already) Adam Larsson, and how the “upper echelons” of the d-core will look going forward. I don’t think there’s too much debate left about what our top-2 looks like next season. Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson should have no problem anchoring our back-end for many years to come. (Provided they both stay healthy, of course. #PrayForKlefbomsFoot.)

Perhaps even the top-4 isn’t too hard to predict, either. Andrej Sekera’s numbers proved last season that he’s a perfectly serviceable top-4 d-man who, through necessity, was pushed into a top-2 role. He also had a penchant for scoring cool O-ver-TIIIIIIME winners. His individual production wasn’t anything to write home about in general, really, but his shot generation and productive possession was fantastic (RelCF/60: 3.95, and RelCD/60: 3.36 respectively). So that’s the left side shored up. As far as the right side muddle pair goes, there are about 3.625 million reasons why one would reasonably expect Mark Fayne to live there. According to the numbers, though, I firmly expect Brandon Davidson to be the guy.

Can you see any category in which Mark Fayne is more clearly a top-4 defenceman than Brandon Davidson? I’m squinting real hard and I just can’t do it. In fact, the harder I look, the more I see Davidson hitting top-pairing status sooner rather than later if his trajectory even kind of holds course.

So who does that leave us with for the bottom pair? Fayne, obviously, unfortunately. I don’t really like the guy, and I think he’s unforgivingly overpaid, but he’s not useless, and I’m sure I’ll end up eating my words once he starts only taking up bottom-pairing minutes. He’ll probably pull a Jultz and end up playing half-decently. (This just in: defencemen look better with limited minutes and when playing within their skill role, not being force-fed minutes because of injuries and wishful thinking. More at 12.) Fayne won’t be putting up big numbers; he’s a shutdown guy through and through. But his shot suppression is workable at a RelCA/60 of -0.73, and he has the years of experience to know basically where he should be most of the time.

And for the left side? I’m throwing my lot in with Jordan Oesterle. There’s a common school of thought in creating defensive pairings that the limitations of particular defenders should compliment each other. In this case, Oesterle’s offence shows incredible promise (with admittedly a smallish sample size) in individual production (his PP/60 is 0.68) and productive possession (RelCD/60 of 4.61). He sits a full 2 points higher in CF% (47), and has a relative WOWY spread of only -2% rather than -5%, when compared with Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart. We saw at the end of last season how composed Oesterle looked in his first passes and zone exits, and at least to my eyes, he never really looked out of his element in whatever situation in which TMac placed him.

Where does this leave Darnell Nurse and Griffin Reinhart? Nursey I’d like to see have a full season or two unencumbered by NHL duties in the A, bulking up his tall frame, playing tough minutes, and refining the specifics of his game. He needs to decide just what kind of a defenceman he’s going to be. We saw him last season toy around with a quick, attacking defensive style, taking it upon himself to carry pucks deep and try to create offence. We saw him go the goon route and pretty convincingly beat the shit out of a few unfortunate opposition tough guys. Can he be all of it? Man, I hope so! He’s got all the tools and seemingly all the drive and desire in the world to do it. But he’s never going to be able to get there if he’s being used up with ridiculous minutes and being put in situations no reasonable first-or-second-year d-man really should be.

As for Griffin, I don’t even know, guys. He’s just… not very good… at the hockeys. Maybe he has big potential, maybe he doesn’t. But I’d rather see the Oilers organization focus their growth and development efforts into their young guns like Davidson, Oesterle, Nurse, and Bear who have at least shown flashes of brilliance in some category or another, rather than a guy who we only ever hear about having potential.

Pick up a 16-bit Larsson today!!